Kenya presents budget a year after massive demos
NAIROBI - Kenya's government was set to present its budget to parliament on Thursday, carefully prepared to avoid a repeat of massive protests over tax hikes a year ago.
The east African nation is a regional economic powerhouse, but tensions have simmered over the soaring cost of living and a stagnant job market.
Last year's finance bill sparked huge public anger by raising taxes on everyday items, culminating in thousands storming parliament on 25 June, forcing President William Ruto to cancel the bill.
At least 60 people were killed in weeks of protests, and rights groups say dozens more were illegally detained by security forces in the aftermath.
This year the government has played it safe.
Rather than tax hikes for consumers, the new bill has focused more on businesses, while seeking to reduce government spending and close tax loopholes as a way to increase revenues.
The government faces a daunting task in boosting social services and investment in the face of huge debts - a common issue across Africa - with interest payments already greater than its spending on health and education.
Analysts say the new budget is unlikely to provoke the public anger of last year, but critics say it still includes backdoor price increases and will hurt small businesses.
"This year's finance bill is, in comparison to last year's, very much seeking to avoid controversy," said Patricia Rodrigues, of global consultancy Control Risks.
But she said it will be "difficult for a lot of businesses to swallow because it includes potential increases on income taxes and social contributions, and the end of some tax holidays for corporates and medium and small enterprises".
The World Bank earlier this year reduced its growth projections for Kenya from 5.0 to 4.5 percent in 2025.
Kenya is currently seeking a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund, meaning its funding will not be included in the budget.
RIGHTS
A bigger concern for many Kenyans has been the government's rights record.
Last month, a young software developer was arrested and charged with cybercrime breaches after building a website opposing the new bill, which she said would raise living costs and undermine privacy rights by allowing greater data access for tax inspectors.
This week, news was dominated by the death of a man while in police custody after he criticised a senior officer.
Such incidents have attracted only small protests so far, but there is widespread anger across the country.
"Just because the tax issue is no longer at the forefront of people's minds does not mean that protests or unrest will not be mobilised," said Rodrigues.
"In recent months, the track record of the administration on human rights and corruption is what has been causing people to mobilise more," she said.
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Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Why Would Anyone Overstate Unemployment? Let's start with the most provocative claim: that StatsSA and the government have a motive to overstate unemployment. This accusation defies both political logic and institutional practice. High unemployment is a political liability, not an asset. It invites criticism, undermines investor confidence, and puts government performance under the microscope. If there were any incentive, it would be to understate the problem, not exaggerate it. A trend we see in a number of African countries where the official unemployment rates are so low they defy logic and reality. StatsSA is an independent institution that, while not perfect, has a lot of credibility. Its data is scrutinised by economists, international agencies, and the media. Any manipulation or systematic bias would be quickly exposed by these watchdogs. In reality, the agency's credibility depends on its objectivity and adherence to global standards. Does StatsSA Ignore Informal Work? The Evidence Says No A central argument in the current debate is that StatsSA's methodology 'renders millions invisible' by failing to count informal work. This is simply not true. StatsSA's Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) is designed to capture all forms of work, including informal jobs, self-employment, and unregistered businesses. The QLFS asks about any activity, formal or informal, that brings in income, whether it's selling vetkoek, running a backyard salon, or hustling as a car guard. If you worked for at least an hour in the reference week, you're counted as employed. Both current and former statisticians-general have clarified that informal work is counted, as required by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards. Recent Stats SA research confirms that the informal sector employs about 19.5% of the workforce, nearly one in five jobs. This includes street vendors, home-based businesses, and unregistered enterprises, all of which sustain households and fuel local economies. 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Hybrid Measurement: A Welcome Innovation, Not a Silver Bullet Calls to supplement survey data with financial transaction records and digital platform data are valid and should be explored. Capitec's own data on township transactions could offer valuable insights. But these are refinements, not fundamental corrections. The current statistics are not a 'mirage'; they are a sober reflection of a society where too many are locked out of meaningful work, formal or informal. Let's Fix the Economy, Not the Messenger It is true that black South Africans face disproportionately high unemployment rates and that the legacy of apartheid continues to shape economic opportunity. But this is not the result of statistical erasure; it is a reflection of structural realities. StatsSA's data exposes these inequalities; it does not create them. Nco Dube a political economist, businessman, and social commentator. Image: Supplied
