logo
My bearish King Dollar and black gold trades are money gushers!

My bearish King Dollar and black gold trades are money gushers!

Arabian Post05-05-2025

Matein Khalid
I have not exactly been reticent in my conviction since last autumn that King Dollar was on the precipice of a seminal monetary regime shift that could mean 40% downside risk on its trade weighted index, as in 2001-06. Yet not in my wildest dreams did I anticipate that the New Taiwan dollar would surge 8% against the greenback, its best performance in 42 years, in only 2 sessions, boosted by a FX short covering squeeze on the prospect of an imminent Trump-Xi trade deal and the repatriation of funds back to the PRC's Renegade Province after an epic dump of American assets.
The biggest bang for the buck of the anti-dollar band wagon on Planet Forex now moves from the G-10 constellation to the rock and roll, lock and load world of emerging market FX. Who is the next obvious candidate for a pop against the buckeroo? The South Korean won, the Polish zloty and once the political calculus forces Lula to drop out of the 2026 election, the Brazilian real.
The Indian rupee has stopped falling at 84 even though Modi has dawned white gloves for his next 'surgical strike' on Pakistan. For now, the Aussie dollar is a buy on Albanese's landslide win and could hit 0.70 if Trump inks a China deal as a gift to the world to celebrate his 79th birthday on June 14, 2025. Vive le roi et gagnant Orange!
It was no surprise that the People's Action Party (PAP) will continue to rule Singapore with Lawrence Wong as its 4th PM since the state was born after the Father, the Son and the Holy Goh. The Sing dollar is Asia's Swissie and I would rather trust my savings to the anti-inflation, pro stability, monetary mandarins of the MAS rather than the Yessir, No-sir, Three Bags Full Sir MAGA creepo whom Trump will anoint as Fed Chairman to succeed Powel and inflate America's obscene debt until the CPI reaches 6% or higher.
See also My rationale for $5,000 an ounce Auric before this cycle ends
I do not want to sound like a broken record but my current project du jour is to research the world's lowest cost, longest life reserves silver mines with no output hedging overhang. After all, it was not profitable to be a dollar bull in 1978 and the ghost of the Hunt brothers tell me that the white metal was a parabolic monetary paydirt in 1979 and could well be the same in 2026.
Prince Abdulaziz has tanked the price of Brent crude, down 4% to 58 a barrel by yet another OPEC supply surge decision. Saudi Arabia has escalated its price war and strategy to preserve downstream market share from OPEC+ cheaters Kazakhstan and Iraq while positioning the Kingdom for the imminent end of sanctions on Russia after the Ukraine peace deal and even Iran if the smoke signals from the Muscat negotiations bear fruit on the White House lawn as Begin/Sadaat and the Rabin/Rafat handshakes did all those years ago. All bets are now off for downside risk in crude oil
Also published on Medium. Notice an issue? Arabian Post strives to deliver the most accurate and reliable information to its readers. If you believe you have identified an error or inconsistency in this article, please don't hesitate to contact our editorial team at editor[at]thearabianpost[dot]com. We are committed to promptly addressing any concerns and ensuring the highest level of journalistic integrity.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Oil prices climb to 2-month high on US, China trade agreement
Oil prices climb to 2-month high on US, China trade agreement

Gulf Today

time23 minutes ago

  • Gulf Today

Oil prices climb to 2-month high on US, China trade agreement

Oil prices rose 2% on Wednesday, to their highest in more than two months, as President Donald Trump said the US had a trade deal with China, feeding hopes for the outlook for energy demand in the world's two largest economies. Brent crude futures rose $1.32, or 1.97%, to $68.19 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. EDT (1535 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.51, or 2.32%, to $66.49. Both Brent and WTI reached their highest in more than two months. Trump said Beijing would supply magnets and rare earth minerals and the US will allow Chinese students in its colleges and universities. Trump added the deal is subject to final approval by him and President Xi Jinping. The trade-related downside risk in oil has been temporarily removed, although the market reaction has been tepid as it is not clear how economic growth and global oil demand will be affected, PVM analyst Tamas Varga said. Trump said he was less confident that Iran would agree to stop uranium enrichment in a nuclear deal with Washington, according to an interview released on Wednesday. In the US, crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a draw of 2 million barrels. "It's a bullish report," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, adding that the demand for motor gasoline began to strengthen. Product supplied for motor gasoline, a proxy for demand, rose by about 907,000 barrels per day last week, to 9.17 million bpd. US consumer prices increased less than expected in May, deepening the conviction in financial markets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by September. Lower interest rates can spur economic growth and demand for oil. Wall Street stocks gained and the dollar and US Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said a U.S.-China trade deal was done and a fresh report on US consumer prices in May showed only a marginal increase. A White House official said the agreement with China allows the US to charge a 55% tariff on imported Chinese goods, including a 10% baseline "reciprocal" tariff, a 20% tariff for fentanyl trafficking and a 25% tariff reflecting pre-existing tariffs. China would charge a 10% tariff on US imports, the official said. Trump also said that Beijing would supply magnets and rare earth minerals while the US will allow Chinese students in its colleges and universities. Separately, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in May amid cheaper gasoline after rising 0.2% in April, the US labour Department said on Wednesday, but inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on the back of the Trump administration's import tariffs. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management in Charlotte, said the likely US China trade deal and consumer price data should support markets. "The narrative around tariff-induced inflation should subside," he wrote in an email. "We are still cautious, but many of the risks that were present in early April appear to be receding." The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 advanced 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4%. Tesla shares added about 2% after Elon Musk also said he regretted some of the posts he made last week about Trump, opening the way to a healing of an abrupt rift that has roiled Washington and hurt shares in the electric carmaker. Asian shares were slightly more positive, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.65%, while the STOXX benchmark for major European shares were little changed. AUCTION ANGST: The reaction in currency markets was muted, with the dollar weakening slightly against the Japanese yen to trade at 144.83 . The euro edged up 0.46% to $1.147, nudging the dollar index down 0.24% to 98.72. Ten-year Treasury yields fell 3.4 basis points to 4.44%, but bond investors also waited for an auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes later in the day, anxious to see if foreign buyers turn up. Concerns about huge US budget deficits and debt have combined with unease over the White House's shifting policies to make investors demand a higher term premium for holding Treasuries. Following the consumer pricing data, traders of short-term interest-rate futures priced in a 70% chance of a quarter-point reduction in the Fed policy rate by September, compared with 57% earlier. Policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged next week.. "Another month goes by with little evidence of tariffs, but the longer-term inflation challenge they pose remains," Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in an email. "Given the Fed likely shares that outlook, no one should be looking for rate cuts in the near future." In commodity markets, gold gained 0.5% to $3,337 an ounce . Oil prices rose to a seven-week high as markets assessed the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks. US crude rose 2% to $66.30 a barrel and Brent rose to $68.04 per barrel, up 1.75% on the day. Agencies

Will Donald Trump forgive Elon Musk after 'regrets' post?
Will Donald Trump forgive Elon Musk after 'regrets' post?

The National

time33 minutes ago

  • The National

Will Donald Trump forgive Elon Musk after 'regrets' post?

Mercurial tech tycoon Elon Musk retracted some of his criticism of President Donald Trump early Wednesday morning, after the Tesla chief and the US leader had a public falling out last week. "I regret some of my posts about President Trump last week," he posted to X, the social media platform he owns. "They went too far." Given the range of posts directed at Mr Trump last week, it is not entirely clear which ones he is sorry for. Several days ago, however, Mr Musk did delete one of the more controversial posts in which he claimed Mr Trump was named in the Epstein files and that was why he had not released them. The documents, which have not been made fully public, concern the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and have long been the subject of speculation by Trump supporters, who have demanded their full release in the belief that they contain the names of high-ranking Democrats. Inclusion in the files does not necessarily imply any wrongdoing. Last week, shortly after Mr Musk announced his plans to step away from his role in the Trump administration, he used his social media platform to blast Mr Trump's much touted 'big, beautiful' tax bill, describing it as a 'disgusting abomination' that would blow up the national debt. The abrupt turn against Mr Trump's signature legislation came after the disintegration of the partnership between the two men that lasted more than a year and saw Mr Musk donate hundreds of millions of dollars to Mr Trump's presidential campaign. Many argue that crucial funding was the difference between victory and defeat for Mr Trump, who faced off against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who was then vice president. After Mr Trump's win, Mr Musk's remit was to cut federal waste through the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency. But within the first few months of the Trump administration, reports indicated Mr Musk's presence had begun to grate with the President. Some have argued that the partnership began to fracture when Mr Trump's advocacy for tariffs put a strain on the various entrepreneurial endeavours of Mr Musk. Mr Trump also sought to cease electric vehicle subsidies that had previously boosted Tesla's bottom line. Regardless, as of last week, there appeared to be no love lost between the two men, both of whom have a large social media presence. After the series of posts to X by Mr Musk, Mr Trump alleged that the Tesla chief had "lost his mind". So while it's unclear what caused the sudden, quasi-apology from Mr Musk, it probably all comes down to money. Mr Trump had posted to his own social media platform, Truth Social, that as a result of Mr Musk betraying him, he would try to halt all federal contracts with his various companies, such as Starlink, SpaceX and others. If that comes to fruition, Mr Musk could lose billions. Last week's posts also hurt the already wounded Tesla, whose stock dropped after Mr Musk began his tirade. Tesla has since recovered most of the value lost. On Wednesday morning, it was up more than 2 per cent shortly after the opening bell. What many are still wondering, however, is whether Mr Trump will forgive Mr Musk. He has yet to post anything in response, and it should be pointed out that Mr Musk has not exactly changed his mind and endorsed Mr Trump's tax and spending bill, seen as the culmination of many of the President's campaign promises.

Oil prices jump 4% on rising Middle East tension
Oil prices jump 4% on rising Middle East tension

The National

timean hour ago

  • The National

Oil prices jump 4% on rising Middle East tension

Oil prices rose more than 4 per cent on Wednesday as the US was preparing to evacuate non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad amid rising regional tension. Brent crude futures rose $1.96, or 3.02 per cent, to $66.82 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.93, or 4.51 per cent, to $67.90 per barrel at 4pm ET. 'It's so fragile. If you see any aberration like that, it doesn't surprise me at all you see volatility in oil prices,' said Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston. The US State Department said it was preparing to evacuate non-essential staff in its embassy in Iraq, Opec's second-largest producer of crude oil behind Saudi Arabia. Non-essential staff members and family members were also authorised to leave Bahrain and Kuwait, according to reports. Tension in the region flared up on Wednesday as efforts between the US and Iran to reach a nuclear deal appeared to stall. In an interview with the New York Post published on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said he was getting 'less confident' about the prospects of a deal being reached. Mr Trump had previously expressed hope that the two sides could reach a deal, and a sixth round of talks were scheduled to take place in Oman on Thursday. 'Something happened to them, but I am much less confident of a deal being made,' he told the Post. Mr Trump added Tehran will not have a 'new nuclear weapon' regardless if a deal is reached. Matthew Bey, a senior global analyst at the Rane Network in Austin, said Mr Trump's comments are 'only reinforcing fears that nuclear talks may soon fall apart'. 'The likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal, even a temporary one, has declined in recent days as the White House has hardened its demand on Iran having to give up the right to enrich uranium and Iran has demonstrated little willingness to do so,' Mr Bey told The National in an email. Iran's Minister of Defence Aziz Nasirzadeh had also said on Wednesday that Tehran will strike US bases in the Middle East if nuclear talks fail and conflict arises. Major indexes on Wall Street wavered aftedr developments in the region, as investors continued to assess the prospects of a US-China trade truce and tame inflation data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was virtually flat, losing 1.1 points at the closing bell. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed 0.27 and 0.50 per cent lower, respectively. 'Given such uncertainty in the markets right now we tend to defer being negative when we can't understand this stuff. There's a handshake deal, but it's a long way off from an actual deal,' Mr Andersen said.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store