Sturgeon attainment gap mistake could 'punish' SNP
Ms Sturgeon shared her regret at failing to reduce the attainment gap, writing in her memoir that it was 'only possible if we do more to tackle poverty itself'.
Exam results revealed the difference in attainment between A to C grades in pupils from the most and least deprived areas stood at 16.6% for National 5, 12.8% for Higher and 17.1% for Advanced Higher.
Dr Fraser McMillan, a researcher at Edinburgh University and contributor to the Scottish Election Study, analysed the former first minister's public perception during her time in office and the impact her exit has had on the SNP.
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He told The Herald: 'There has been a lot of talk about her legacy and a big chunk of that is to what extent she is responsible for a drop in Scottish Government approval and SNP support.'
The party's decline 'definitely started under her and then obviously the circumstances of her resignation and the arrest reinforced the ill-feeling,' he added.
'It's something the SNP have never really recovered from. John Swinney has steadied the ship but it's not like he is making major strikes forward in terms of how people think the Scottish Government is doing.
'When it comes to policy stuff people really don't think she kept her promise on education and the attainment gap in particular.'
He added: 'I don't think you can underestimate the disappointment on the SNP's record on the attainment gap with Sturgeon as first minister. The numbers really don't lie and she had overpromised in the attainment gap regard.
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'She said 'judge me on my record on this' and I think people did judge her and they did so pretty harshly.'
In the June 2023 Scottish Opinion Monitor, public perception on how the Scottish Government handled education fell compared to 2021.
By 2024, Ms Sturgeon was out of government, however the Scottish Election Study surveyed the public on the Scottish Government's record on education since 2019, with 73% arguing it got worse.
Earlier this week, the former first minister described her failure to eliminate the gap as "possibly one of my biggest regrets".
She added: "At the time I made the promise of probably not appreciating as much as I quickly can to do the factors that would influence that.
"And that was not just about issues around the curriculum in schools, but what is the driving cause of the poverty related attainment gap in our schools? It's poverty, it's the conditions children grow up in, outside school."
However she cited policies such as the Scottish Child Payment and the Baby Box - essential items gifted to parents for the first six months of a newborn's life - as helping to lift children out of poverty.
But Dr McMillan told The Herald current First Minister - and education secretary under Ms Sturgeon - had work to do to win over voters.
He said: "It has undoubtably damaged the reputation for competence that got them elected in the first place.
"Until after the 2021 election, pro-independence voters were reluctant to blame the Scottish Government for any issues, but that began to change under Sturgeon's watch and that, combined with the internal chaos and scandal that followed her resignation, undoubtably hurt them in the 2024 [general election].
"Swinney has arrested the decline but it remains to be seen if he can improve the country's mood and its assessment of SNP performance in office."
It comes as polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice told The Herald's Unspun Live podcast at the Edinburgh Festival Fringe it was "most extremely unlikely" the SNP would win a majority next year.
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