12-05-2025
Scots opposed to independence less trusting after Operation Branchform
Experts at an independent academic polling team, Scottish Election Study, surveyed how a scandal could affect public trust in Scottish institutions when people are reminded of it.
The study was designed to compare the perceptions of one group who was given an explanation of the SNP scandal from BBC reporting and the other half was not.
It was found that the scandal most affected the perceptions of people who hold unionist views.
The SNP's support dropped during the long-running police investigation into its finances, that has now closed. Former first minister Nicola Sturgeon – who had been arrested by police during the Operation Branchform probe – has been cleared of any wrongdoing while her former partner Peter Murrell has been charged with embezzlement.
Jac Larner, of Cardiff University, presented his findings at a Stevenson lecture at Glasgow University, and said: ''Campervangate treatment' made respondents less trusting of Scottish government ministers and civil servants.
'This effect is not consistent among all citizens: for people who support independence we observe no significant changes. Instead, the effect is driven by strong reactions by those who oppose independence.'
The study also found the public has lower levels of trust in UK institutions and representatives than Scottish ones.
'The Scottish government and Holyrood are generally more trusted than pretty much any UK-level institution. This has been the case for some time, pretty much right back to the foundation of devolution,' Larner explained.
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He added: 'If you think of yourself as a supporter of the SNP, you trust the Scottish government far, far, far more than the UK government.'
Larner and his team also surveyed the public on parties held in Downing Street during the Covid-19 emergency for which Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak were fined.
Partygate, Larner said, 'made respondents less likely to trust UK ministers and civil servants to behave ethically in their jobs'.
He said: 'The treatment made respondents more likely to trust MSPs and Scottish government ministers. We have clear evidence of constitutionally motivated reasoning but in an unexpected direction: negative effects for UK actors were substantially bigger among unionists.'
