Florida's pandemic housing boom is over. Are we headed toward a crash?
For a time, Tampa Bay was one of the hottest housing markets in the country. But falling prices and lagging sales across the Sunshine State signal a stark reversal from the pandemic-fueled home buying boom.
'People were getting used to making huge profits on their houses in a short period of time,' said Michael Wyckoff managing broker of Engel & Völkers Madeira Beach. 'That's slowing down.'
The number of homes sold in the Tampa Bay metro area remained flat year over year, but dropped about 20% since 2022, from when the market was booming. That's according to preliminary April data from Homes.com, a subsidiary of the real estate firm, CoStar Group.
Counties that were badly hit by Hurricanes Helene and Milton faced even greater losses. Since last year, sales decreased by 8% in Hillsborough County and almost 13% in Pinellas, according to April data from Suncoast Association of Realtors.
Homes are taking longer to sell. The median time a home spends on market is now between 70 and 85 days. Though that's on par with what we've seen historically, Michelle Rumore, senior director of market analytics for CoStar said it's a far cry from the Covid-19 era, when homes stayed on the market for about 40-50 days.
More available homes and fewer interested buyers has caused prices across Tampa Bay to decrease for four consecutive months. The median home price now hovers around $365,000, according to Homes.com. That's almost a 3% decrease from this time last year and about a 5% decrease from June 2024 when prices peaked at $385,000.
Prices for the country as a whole are actually rising slightly. April saw a 1.3% year over year increase, marking four months of price growth, Homes.com data shows.
Florida's housing market is unique because so many people moved here during Covid-19, said Rumore. But now that migration has slowed down, 'the rubber band effect is just a little more apparent here than in other markets,' she said.
Even though prices are coming down slightly, that's not enough to entice buyers who are facing higher mortgage rates, insurance costs and overall economic uncertainty, said Lei Wedge, professor of Finance at the University of South Florida's Muma College of Business.
Wyckoff said during the pandemic, interest rates were artificially lowered to boost the economy. He believes that buyers will eventually adjust to the new normal.
'If you were to look over the last 50 years, 7% is not a terrible mortgage rate,' he said.
Though the market has cooled, that doesn't necessarily mean a crash is on the horizon.
What's unfolding now is a 'slow correction,' Wedge said. That's different from the major slashes in prices that took place after the 2008 financial crisis.
She believes there may be a slight oversupply of housing in the local market right now.
'You had all the builders jumping in when the market was hot,' she said. 'By the time they're done building, we don't have as many people moving to Tampa.'
The good news is, this gives buyers a bit more leverage. Wyckoff said he's seeing more sellers agree to cover closing costs, inspections, repairs and other concessions.
'We're in a more balanced market now,' he said.
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