Parkinson's cases could double by 2050, reaching 25 million worldwide
The number of people worldwide with the neurodegenerative condition will reach 25.2 million by 2050, up from 11.9 million in 2021, according to the projections from researchers at Chinese and Canadian universities, which were published in the BMJ.
Independent experts said the findings underscore the urgency of finding new treatments and shoring up social support for people with Parkinson's.
'It just shows that it absolutely needs to be addressed now, because there is no way that any of the global health services can cope with that level of demand from one specific condition,' Amelia Hursey, strategic director at the advocacy group Parkinson's Europe, told Euronews Health.
The prevalence of Parkinson's could reach 267 cases per 100,000 people in 2050, up 76 per cent in three decades, the study found.
About 10.9 million people in East Asia will have Parkinson's in 2050, a greater toll than any other region. South Asia will follow with an estimated 6.8 million cases.
Meanwhile, western parts of sub-Saharan Africa will see the fastest growth in Parkinson's cases in the coming decades (292 per cent), driven largely by population growth but also ageing.
What are the factors behind the rise in Parkinson's?
Hursey, who was not involved with the study, added that as countries become more developed, rates of physical activity tend to fall. Exercise appears to offer protection against Parkinson's and other neurodegenerative conditions.
'What you're potentially seeing is, as people become more sedentary in their work, in their world, you're actually ending up with a less healthy brain,' she said.
While lower- and middle-income countries are expected to see the sharpest uptick in Parkinson's burden, increases are expected in every part of the world by 2050.
Cases are expected to rise by 50 per cent in Western Europe, for example, and by 28 per cent in Central and Eastern Europe.
The researchers said the geographical divides could be due to differences in socioeconomic status, changes to how populations are structured, lifestyles, and toxic environments due to industrialisation and urbanisation.
For example, some studies have pointed to air pollution as a risk factor for Parkinson's.
Research on other environmental pollutants – such as on certain pesticides and cleaning chemicals as well as microplastics – suggests they may raise Parkinson's risks, but much remains unknown about the drivers of the disease.
Even so, the study results indicate that 'the likelihood of increased [Parkinson's] numbers is significant in the world that we live in now, if we don't change anything about the … environment as it stands,' Hursey said.
David Dexter, research director at Parkinson's UK, told Euronews Health that investments are needed in research, medical care, and support services for people with Parkinson's and their caregivers.
Today, he said, 'people with Parkinson's are not getting the healthcare and services they need to live well'.
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