What caused the fatal mid-air collision? Key questions and what comes next.

USA Today

30-01-2025

AI-assisted summary
Investigators are working to determine if either aircraft involved in the collision near Reagan National Airport was in unauthorized airspace.
Experts are examining whether the collision avoidance system on the American Eagle jet was functioning and if the Black Hawk helicopter had a similar system in use.
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is leading the investigation to determine the cause of the crash and said it will issue preliminary report in 30 days.
In the aftermath of the mid-air collision between American Airlines Flight 5342 and a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter near Washington Reagan National Airport on Wednesday night, officials and the public are seeking urgent answers regarding the cause of the disaster.
There is plenty of speculation floating around and lots of theories being put forward by experts and armchair analysts, and while the drive for answers is understandable, it's also important to take stock and be comfortable with the fact that some such answers just take time.
'In the first 24 hours, we usually know very little, and often what we think we know turns out to be false in the days and weeks to follow,' William J. McGee, senior fellow for aviation and travel at the American Economic Liberties Project, told USA TODAY.
For now, less than 24 hours after the crash, we don't know very much for certain.
"Since we're just beginning our investigation, we don't have a great deal of information to share right now," Brice Banning, senior aircraft accident investigator and investigator in charge of this investigation for the National Transportation Safety Board said at a press conference Thursday afternoon. "We will keep you informed by getting regular updates as we learn more."
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Live updates:All 67 aboard plane, copter killed in tragic midair collision near DC
Still, experts say, some basic facts about the accident are publicly known already.
'What we know is that the CRJ aircraft was on approach to runway 33 at Reagan and was on short final, probably at or below about 500 feet, and the helicopter was traveling. There is a helicopter route that goes down the river on the east side of the river, so those two routes, the final approach course and that helicopter route actually do intersect, but they are deconflicted by altitude typically, but not by very much, only by several hundred feet,' Jim Brauchle, an aviation attorney at Motley Rice, said in an interview.
That still leaves many unanswered questions.
'Even the best experts right now, who are on the front lines, have a ton of unanswered questions. They know more than we do right now, but they still don't know everything,' McGee said.
Here's what experts are likely going to be digging into, and what the likely investigative timeline looks like going forward.
Was either aircraft out of place?
One of the first questions investigators will likely try to answer is whether either aircraft was occupying airspace it should not have been in. Early signs from air traffic control audio suggest that the American Airlines flight was following the designated flight path for landing at DCA and that the helicopter was also in an area it was generally authorized to be in, though possibly at a different altitude than the one designated for its flight path.
'It's kind of a weird approach. The approach into that runway, aircraft as they're approaching the airfield fly up the east side of the river over land, but then a mile and a half from the runway would make a big 50-degree turn to go land. When they make that turn, they're at 490 feet, so they'll cross over the river at or below 400 or 450 feet, but that helicopter route is at or below 200 feet,' Brauchle said 'Even if they're both where they're supposed to be, you have only about 200 feet of separation, which is not a lot of separation at all.'
Deadly mid-air collisionrenews urgent questions about US air safety, near-misses
Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., during a press conference Thursday said she requested information on the flight patterns of both the plane and helicopter. Duckworth, who is a ranking member of the U.S. Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation, is a veteran with experience flying a Black Hawk.
McGee said he had the same initial questions.
'That is some of the busiest airspace in the United States. Were they in the wrong place at the wrong time?' he said. 'Why was an aircraft traveling into the path of a plane that was cleared to land at a major American airport?'
Did the collision avoidance system respond?
All commercial aircraft in the U.S. are required to be fitted with a warning instrument known as the traffic collision avoidance system, or TCAS. Military aircraft flying in civilian airspace may not be required to have that system installed or operating, but some do anyway.
One question investigators are likely to explore is whether or not the system was functioning properly on the American Eagle jet, and whether or not the Black Hawk was fitted with it and had it turned on at the time of the collision.
But, experts warn, it's not a foolproof system.
'When you're that close to the runway in that kind of traffic, it might not necessarily trigger it,' Brauchle said. 'That will be interesting when you get the flight data recorder to see if TCAS activated or alerted.'
Who was responsible for the crash?
Air disasters are almost never caused by a single factor, but the National Transportation Safety Board, which is leading the investigation into Wednesday night's crash, will be working to understand how the incident happened.
One key question will be what the immediate causal factor was.
'Was there more that either crew could have done? Was the military helicopter where it should have been or should not have been at that time?' McGee said. 'It looks like they flew 90 degrees directly into an approach path to an active runway. That just shouldn't be at that flight level.'
Duckworth emphasized the need for prudence and to 'wait for the NTSB and FAA to do their job with the accident investigation first.'
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Robert Isom, American Airlines' CEO, also said in a letter to employees on Thursday that the NTSB is the only authority for information about this crash.
'While the investigation is underway – and will continue for quite some time – we will share what we can as information becomes available. It's important to remember that the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) leads the investigation of aviation accidents. The NTSB will be the sole source of truth going forward, and accuracy is of the utmost importance,' the letter said.
Night vision goggles and other factors that could have come into play
The time of day and other factors often contribute to a crash, even if they do not cause it directly.
'I've heard reports, but I haven't necessarily confirmed it, but (air traffic control was) talking to the helicopter and the helicopter did say they had the aircraft in sight,' Brauchle said. 'You would think it's an aircraft, a commercial aircraft, they should be able to see that, but at night, the only thing you can see are its lights. If you're in a helicopter only several hundred feet off the ground, that's a very urban area and it's very well-lit, it's real easy to not be able to distinguish what lights you're looking at.'
The helicopter pilots were also on a night flying training exercise and may have been using night vision goggles. The Defense Secretary acknowledged in a press statement that night vision goggles were onboard the helicopter at the time of the incident, but did not specify if the pilots were using them when the crash occurred.
'Where you also involve night flying by military, especially when it's a training mission, they're often training with night vision goggles,' Robert W. Mann, Jr., a former airline executive officer and current president of R. W. Mann and Company, an independent airline consultancy, told USA TODAY. 'They're imprecise, to be honest, and they're often subject to ground clutter (from lights) in their field of view.'
It's also possible, both McGee and Brauchle said, that the aircraft were simply in each others' blind spots.
Brauchle explained that because the American jet was turning, it may have been 'putting its belly toward the helicopter,' which would have kept the helicopter out of the jet pilots' field of vision.
Similarly, he said, if the helicopter was in a certain position below the jet, it may not have seen the plane coming, either.
'There was a helicopter accident we worked on several years ago up in the Hudson River involving a tour helicopter and an aircraft. Neither saw each other until the very last second. The NTSB did a visual study, a human factors study,' he said. 'You would be blind, there are certain areas until you're right on top of it and most times it's too late to react at that point.'
How the investigation will proceed
'Now is not the time for speculation,' Duckworth said. 'We need to get to the facts.'
This investigation will take time. McGee said he's hopeful we'll have some very preliminary information about what happened in the coming days, but very likely there won't be any official reports for at least a month, and it will likely take a year or more before the NTSB issues its full, final report.
Banning, the NTSB investigator, said the agency expects to issue a preliminary report in about 30 days.
"We will take the time that's necessary," he said. "If we find something that is a significant issue that warrants immediate action, we will not hesitate to make those recommendations and make them public."
Meanwhile, McGee said, it's important for travelers to know that flying remains safe and the industry will learn from this incident to make it safer.
'We all know, it's worth saying, and someone like me who's been critical, it's worth me saying once in a while: this is an extremely safe system but that doesn't mean we don't constantly have to have our guard up and be vigilant,' he said.