Don't think punitive tariffs are a good economic policy for the U.S., says Bob Diamond
Bob Diamond, Atla Merchant Capital CEO and former Barclays CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss President Trump's tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest rate decision, his thoughts on Fed Chair Powell, latest market trends, and more.
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Washington Post
18 minutes ago
- Washington Post
Sending the National Guard is bad. Arresting 3,000 a day is worse.
ICE agents making arrests in the parking lot of a Home Depot helped set off mass protests in Los Angeles. But that wasn't an isolated incident. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is increasingly taking actions at courthouses, restaurants and other spaces it previously stayed away from. President Donald Trump and his top aides have long favored harsh immigration policies. But what's shifted in recent weeks is that the administration has set a specific goal of ICE arresting at least 3,000 people per a quota may help Trump accomplish his goals, but it is leading to overly aggressive tactics that are deeply unsettling Americans across the country. It was perhaps inevitable that a president who promised to deport more people than his predecessors would implement an arrest quota. In the first months of Trump's tenure, the number of deportations and ICE arrests wasn't that much higher than when President Joe Biden was in office. That reportedly frustrated Trump administration officials, particularly Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller. So last month, Miller and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem privately gave ICE leaders — and then publicly confirmed — the goal of making 3,000 arrests per day. The administration also replaced ICE's leadership with people it felt would be more aggressive. That's a huge increase: The agency was making between 700 and 900 arrests per day at the end of Biden's term and the start of Trump's. And it appears this new policy is being carried out. ICE officials say they arrested 2,267 people on June 3 and 2,368 on June 4. It's possible these numbers are being inflated by the agency to please Trump and Miller. But there are articles in news outlets across the country about unprecedented ICE enforcement actions in their communities, so I believe the agency is going beyond its usual moves. But this policy is misguided. Quotas are problematic in many contexts. I support increased gender and racial diversity but am wary of organizations trying to hire a set number of women and people of color. In law enforcement, they are more troublesome. Police officers operating under quota systems feel pushed to make arrests for minor offenses. They sometimes target not the most dangerous people but those who are easiest to apprehend. That's what's happening now. Undocumented immigrants showing up to court hearings, working at clothing stores or looking to get Home Depot customers to hire them for day labor are probably not leading human trafficking organizations on the side. I am deeply concerned that ICE will soon start making arrests at schools and hospitals, since those are other places where you can arrest lots of people at once — few of whom will be armed or dangerous. I am opposed to these arrests in part because I don't support Trump's overarching goals of deporting 1 million immigrants a year and creating a climate in which other undocumented immigrants return to their native countries on their own. But you could argue that while Trump did not specifically campaign on 3,000 arrests per day, he promised to crack down on undocumented immigrants, and Americans elected him, so the public wants this. It's hard to determine why people voted for a candidate and what kind of mandate that gives them. But even if Trump campaigned explicitly on arresting 3,000 people a day, we should be wary of that policy — and not just because quotas generally aren't smart. This particular quota is excessive. If ICE arrested 3,000 a people a day, that would add up to about 1.1 million arrests after a year. There are about 11.7 million undocumented people in the United States. So if no individual was arrested more than once, about 9 percent of undocumented immigrants would be arrested in a given year under this policy. Arresting 9 percent of any group would almost certainly result in the other 91 percent being constantly worried about being arrested or jailed. And because about three quarters of undocumented immigrants are from Central or South America, some U.S. citizens and authorized residents who are Brown almost certainly will be unjustly arrested or questioned by ICE. This arrest quota echoes stop-and-frisk policies many police departments used to employ. At the height of that approach, there were about 350,000 stops of the 1.9 million Black New Yorkers. Basically every Black New Yorker had to be on guard for being stopped and frisked, and a judge invalidated the program on the grounds that it was racially discriminatory. Miller and Trump may want all 11.7 million undocumented immigrants to live in terror. But the rest of us shouldn't. The overwhelming majority of those people came to the United States seeking a better life. If we want to deter future immigrants, cracking down on employers who hire undocumented people and making it harder to enter the country in the first place are obvious solutions. Making life excessively difficult for people already here will probably discourage future migrants, but the U.S. government should not be in the business of rushing into restaurants and courthouses with guns to arrest people for the purpose of scaring others into leaving the country. Many Democratic politicians and political commentators have criticized Trump for deploying the National Guard over the objections of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, to stop the protests of ICE's actions in Los Angeles. But Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower and Lyndon B. Johnson rightly invoked the National Guard, without support from governors, to integrate schools and defend civil rights marches respectively. The problem isn't that Trump is using the National Guard; it's that he's using the National Guard to defend a policy that will target people of color indiscriminately and inhumanely. The quota must go.
Washington Post
18 minutes ago
- Washington Post
Democrats ignored border politics. Now the consequences are here.
Democrats have gotten the border issue so wrong, for so long, that it amounts to political malpractice. The latest chapter — in which violent protesters could be helping President Donald Trump create a military confrontation he's almost begging for as a distraction from his other problems — may prove the most dangerous yet. When I see activists carrying Mexican flags as they challenge ICE raids in Los Angeles this week, I think of two possibilities: These 'protesters' are deliberately working to create visuals that will help Trump, or they are well-meaning but unwise dissenters who are inadvertently accomplishing the same goal. Democrats' mistake, over more than a decade, has been to behave as though border enforcement doesn't matter. Pressured by immigrant rights activists, party leaders too often acted as if maintaining a well-controlled border was somehow morally wrong. Again and again, the short-term political interests of Democratic leaders in responding to a strong faction within the party won out over having a policy that could appeal to the country as a whole. When red-state voters and elected officials complained that their states were being overwhelmed by uncontrolled immigration over the past decade, Democrats found those protests easy to ignore. They were happening somewhere else. But when red states' governors pushed migrants toward blue-state cities over the past several years, protests from mayors and governors finally began to register. But still not enough to create coherent Democratic policies, alas. It's open season on former president Joe Biden these days, and he doesn't deserve all the retrospective criticism he's getting. But on immigration, he was anything but a profile in courage. Security advisers including Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas wanted tougher border policies starting in 2021. But political advisers such as chief of staff Ron Klain, who sought amity with immigration rights progressives in Congress and the party's base, resisted strong measures. Though Biden was elected as a centrist, he leaned left — and waited until the last months of his presidency to take the strong enforcement measures recommended earlier. Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump played shamelessly on public anxieties about the border. Some of his arguments, like claims that hungry migrants were eating pets, were grotesque. They were simply provocations. But Biden and Kamala Harris didn't have good answers, other than indignation. They had straddled the issue through Biden's term, talking about border security but failing to enact it, and the public knew it. Democrats finally came up with a bipartisan border bill in 2024 that would have given the president more authority to expel migrants and deny asylum claims, and more money to secure the border. Republicans, led by Trump, were shameless opportunists in opposing the bill. They didn't want Biden to have a win. In the end, Democrats didn't have the votes — or, frankly, the credibility on the issue. Biden took executive action in June 2024, limiting entry into the United States. But it was too late. He could have taken that action in 2021. Since Trump took office in January, he has been building toward this week's confrontation in the streets. ICE raids have steadily increased in cities with large migrant populations, as have nationwide quotas for arrests and deportations. Trump declared a national emergency on Inauguration Day that gave him authority to send troops to the border to 'assist' in controlling immigration. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi L. Noem seized every photo opportunity to convey a militarized approach to the coming clash. Over these months, the immigration issue has been a car crash skidding toward us in slow motion. Since his first term, Trump has clearly wanted a military confrontation with the left over immigration or racial issues. Gen. Mark A. Milley, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, helped talk Trump out of invoking the Insurrection Act in 2020 to contain the unrest that followed the death of George Floyd. But this time, Trump faces no opposition. He is surrounded by yes-men and -women. The saddest part is that Democrats still have no clear policy. Some blue-state mayors and governors have pledged to provide 'sanctuary' for migrants, but they don't have good arguments to rebut Trump's claim they're interfering with the enforcement of federal law. In some cases, sanctuary has meant refusing to hand over undocumented migrants convicted of violent crimes, former DHS officials tell me. That's wrong. The courts have limited Trump's most arbitrary policies and his defiance of due process, but not his authority to enforce immigration laws. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) this week chose sensible ground to fight, by filing a lawsuit challenging Trump's authority to override gubernatorial power by federalizing National Guard troops when there isn't a 'rebellion' or 'invasion.' There is no evidence of such extreme danger — or that local law enforcement in Los Angeles can't handle the problems. But Newsom's smart pushback doesn't get Democrats out of addressing an issue they've been ducking for more than a decade: Do they have the courage to enforce the border themselves? Over the long run, taking border issues seriously means more immigration courts, and more border-control people and facilities — and a fair, legal way of deciding who stays and who goes. But right now, it means Democratic mayors and governors using state and local police to contain protests, so that troops aren't necessary — and preventing extremists among the activists from fomenting the cataclysm in the streets that some of them seem to want as much as Trump. Yes, of course, we need new bipartisan legislation to resolve the gut issue of how to protect the 'dreamers' and other longtime residents who show every day that they want only to be good citizens. But on the way to that day of sweet reason, Democrats need to oppose violence, by anyone — and to help enforce immigration policies that begin with a recognition that it isn't immoral to have a border.
Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs live updates: US-China trade talks going well, could stretch into Wednesday, Lutnick says
Trade talks between the US and China resumed on Tuesday, with talks stretching well into the evening in London. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the talks were progressing "really, really well," but that they could stretch into Wednesday as the sides iron out details. After day one, US officials were upbeat but vague on progress. President Trump said on Monday he received "good reports" but added that "China's not easy." The high-stakes negotiations follow Trump's call with Xi Jinping last week, which both leaders framed as positive. US-China tensions have risen in the aftermath of the countries' trade truce reached in mid-May in Geneva, with both countries accusing the other of breaching that truce while ratcheting up pressure on other issues. The US and China are also now using their control over certain key materials to gain control in the trade war. Bloomberg reported on Friday that the US dominates in exports of ethane, a gas used to make plastics, and China buys nearly all of it. Washington is now tightening control by requiring export licenses. China's curbs on exports of rare earth minerals, crucial for autos in particular, have drawn Washington's ire. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet The US-China talks come as Trump pushes countries to speed up negotiations. The US sent a letter to partners as a "friendly reminder" that Trump's self-imposed 90-day pause on sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs is set to expire in early July. White House advisers have for weeks promised trade deals in the "not-too-distant future," with the only announced agreement so far coming with the United Kingdom. US and Indian officials held trade talks this week and agreed to extend those discussions on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the July 9 deadline. New tariffs are coming into play: Effective Wednesday, June 4, Trump doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. Meanwhile, Trump's most sweeping tariffs face legal uncertainty after a federal appeals court allowed the tariffs to temporarily stay in effect, a day after the US Court of International Trade blocked their implementation, deeming the method used to enact them "unlawful." Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. US-China talks stretched on Tuesday, and they may continue into Wednesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters outside of Lancaster House in London, where delegations from both countries are meeting. "I think the talks are going really, really well," Lutnick said. "We're very much spending time and effort and energy — everybody's got their head down working closely." "I hope they end this evening," he added, "but if they need be, we'll be here tomorrow." The teams from China and the US, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, have been holding negotiations since Monday. The London summit followed a phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Stocks rose to near session highs following Lutnick's comments on an otherwise fairly muted day in markets. Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman reports: Read more here. From Reuters: Read more here. Banking fees and trading revenue for one of the world's largest investment banks is expected to climb this quarter despite the concerns that surround US tariffs, Citigroup's (C) head of banking Vis Raghavan said on Tuesday. Raghaven added, that M&A activity continues to be active but the IPO market has been "stagnant." Reuters reports: Read more here. The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2025 on Tuesday by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3%. The international financial institution, which provides loans to governments said that high tariffs and uncertainty were a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. On Tuesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade negotiations with China were going well, as the two sides met in London for a second day of talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. The CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), North America's top producer of copper has warned that tariffs could hurt an industry that President Trump is trying to help. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Maruti Suzuki has cut near-term production targets for its maiden electric vehicle e-Vitara by two-thirds because of rare earths shortages, a document showed, in the latest sign of disruption to the auto industry from China's export curbs. India's top carmaker, which said on Monday it had not seen any impact yet from the supply crisis, now plans to make about 8,200 e-Vitaras between April and September, versus an original goal of 26,500, according to a company document seen by Reuters. It cited "supply constraints" in rare earth materials that are vital in making magnets and other components across a range of hi-tech industries. Read more here. Both the US and China are finding new tools to use as bargaining chips within trade negotiations. Here's an example of just some of them: Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The de-escalation in trade tensions likely contributed to an improvement in US small-business confidence in May. However, uncertainty remained due to the overall economic outlook. Reuters reports: Read more here. Chinese stocks fell on Tuesday ahead of the second day of trade negotiations between the US and China. Investors are cautious as the two biggest economies seek to resolve some contentious issues. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. As US-China trade negotiations resume in London on Tuesday, both sides are eager to rebuild the truce established in May. While, the US has tightened controls on AI chip exports, China may be holding the most valuable card in these talks. CNN reports: Read more here. Advertising firm, WPP said on Tuesday that global advertising revenue is expected to grow 6% this year, lowering its earlier target of 7.7% due to the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reported that trade talks between the US and China will resume tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. in London after six hours of negotiations on Monday. US officials were looking for a "handshake" on Monday, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told CNBC, as the two sides look to ease tensions over tech and rare earths. President Trump weighed in on the progress, telling reporters on Monday: "We are doing well with China. China's not easy. ... I'm only getting good reports.' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, said it was "good meeting" and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called the talks "fruitful," sending an upbeat signal on the talks' progress. The Chinese delegation, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, did not comment on the talks. From Bloomberg: Read more here. The number of ocean containers from China bound for the US fell precipitously in May when President Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods were in effect. Supply chain technology company Descartes said Monday that seaborne imports from China to the US dropped 28.5% year over year, the sharpest decline since the pandemic, per Reuters. Overall, US seaborne imports fell 7.2% annually in May to 2.18 million 20-foot equivalent units. The decline snaps a streak of increases fueled by companies frontloading goods to avoid higher duties, which has kept US seaports, such as the Port of Long Beach, busy. "The effects of U.S. policy shifts with China are now clearly visible in monthly trade flows," Descartes said in a statement. Read more here. In today's Chart of the Day, Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer writes that tariff headlines have been rattling markets to a lesser degree than they did in April, despite an escalation of trade tensions recently: Sign up for the Morning Brief newsletter to get the Chart of the Day in your inbox. US import costs of steel and aluminum are expected to rise by more than $100 billion after President Trump doubled tariffs on the metals to 50% this week. That is expected to impact automakers such as Ford (F), as well as importers for a variety of goods, from baseball bats to aircraft parts. The Financial Times reports: Read more here. Tariffs have brought challenges for many, but Century Aluminum (CENX) and top recycler Matalco stand to benefit from President Trump's metal import duties as domestic prices rise. Reuters reports: Read more here. US-China talks stretched on Tuesday, and they may continue into Wednesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters outside of Lancaster House in London, where delegations from both countries are meeting. "I think the talks are going really, really well," Lutnick said. "We're very much spending time and effort and energy — everybody's got their head down working closely." "I hope they end this evening," he added, "but if they need be, we'll be here tomorrow." The teams from China and the US, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, have been holding negotiations since Monday. The London summit followed a phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Stocks rose to near session highs following Lutnick's comments on an otherwise fairly muted day in markets. Read more here. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman reports: Read more here. From Reuters: Read more here. Banking fees and trading revenue for one of the world's largest investment banks is expected to climb this quarter despite the concerns that surround US tariffs, Citigroup's (C) head of banking Vis Raghavan said on Tuesday. Raghaven added, that M&A activity continues to be active but the IPO market has been "stagnant." Reuters reports: Read more here. The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for 2025 on Tuesday by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3%. The international financial institution, which provides loans to governments said that high tariffs and uncertainty were a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. On Tuesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade negotiations with China were going well, as the two sides met in London for a second day of talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. The CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX), North America's top producer of copper has warned that tariffs could hurt an industry that President Trump is trying to help. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Reuters reports: Maruti Suzuki has cut near-term production targets for its maiden electric vehicle e-Vitara by two-thirds because of rare earths shortages, a document showed, in the latest sign of disruption to the auto industry from China's export curbs. India's top carmaker, which said on Monday it had not seen any impact yet from the supply crisis, now plans to make about 8,200 e-Vitaras between April and September, versus an original goal of 26,500, according to a company document seen by Reuters. It cited "supply constraints" in rare earth materials that are vital in making magnets and other components across a range of hi-tech industries. Read more here. Both the US and China are finding new tools to use as bargaining chips within trade negotiations. Here's an example of just some of them: Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The de-escalation in trade tensions likely contributed to an improvement in US small-business confidence in May. However, uncertainty remained due to the overall economic outlook. Reuters reports: Read more here. Chinese stocks fell on Tuesday ahead of the second day of trade negotiations between the US and China. Investors are cautious as the two biggest economies seek to resolve some contentious issues. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. As US-China trade negotiations resume in London on Tuesday, both sides are eager to rebuild the truce established in May. While, the US has tightened controls on AI chip exports, China may be holding the most valuable card in these talks. CNN reports: Read more here. Advertising firm, WPP said on Tuesday that global advertising revenue is expected to grow 6% this year, lowering its earlier target of 7.7% due to the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies. Reuters reports: Read more here. Bloomberg reported that trade talks between the US and China will resume tomorrow morning at 10 a.m. in London after six hours of negotiations on Monday. US officials were looking for a "handshake" on Monday, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett told CNBC, as the two sides look to ease tensions over tech and rare earths. President Trump weighed in on the progress, telling reporters on Monday: "We are doing well with China. China's not easy. ... I'm only getting good reports.' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, said it was "good meeting" and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called the talks "fruitful," sending an upbeat signal on the talks' progress. The Chinese delegation, led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, did not comment on the talks. From Bloomberg: Read more here. The number of ocean containers from China bound for the US fell precipitously in May when President Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods were in effect. Supply chain technology company Descartes said Monday that seaborne imports from China to the US dropped 28.5% year over year, the sharpest decline since the pandemic, per Reuters. Overall, US seaborne imports fell 7.2% annually in May to 2.18 million 20-foot equivalent units. The decline snaps a streak of increases fueled by companies frontloading goods to avoid higher duties, which has kept US seaports, such as the Port of Long Beach, busy. "The effects of U.S. policy shifts with China are now clearly visible in monthly trade flows," Descartes said in a statement. Read more here. In today's Chart of the Day, Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer writes that tariff headlines have been rattling markets to a lesser degree than they did in April, despite an escalation of trade tensions recently: Sign up for the Morning Brief newsletter to get the Chart of the Day in your inbox. US import costs of steel and aluminum are expected to rise by more than $100 billion after President Trump doubled tariffs on the metals to 50% this week. That is expected to impact automakers such as Ford (F), as well as importers for a variety of goods, from baseball bats to aircraft parts. The Financial Times reports: Read more here. Tariffs have brought challenges for many, but Century Aluminum (CENX) and top recycler Matalco stand to benefit from President Trump's metal import duties as domestic prices rise. Reuters reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
