Missiles too close for comfort for airlines in Iran-Israel war
Airline travellers were confronted with dizzying sights of missile launches visible from the windows of passenger planes even before the start of the war between Israel and Iran on Friday.
The closure of airspace over the two countries has had a cascading effect through the region, grounding flights and leaving travellers stranded.
Israel has closed its primary international Ben Gurion Airport until further notice, while Iran on Friday suspended flights to and from the country's main Khomeini International Airport on the outskirts of Tehran.
Flight radar data shows commercial aircraft fleeing Iranian and Israeli airspace as the two Middle Eastern foes fired salvos of missiles and drones at each other. Israel has launched airstrikes as well in its effort to destroy Iran's nuclear program.
Iraq's airports have all closed due to its proximity to Iran. Israel has launched strikes on Iran, reportedly through Iraqi airspace. Iranian drones and missiles flying the other way, meanwhile, have been downed over Iraq.
The expansion of the war on Friday came after Iran and Israel fired missiles at each other as recently as October.
Dubai-based airline Emirates has cancelled some flights and rerouted others through the region 'following recent airspace closures'. Flights to Jordan, Lebanon, Iran and Iraq have been cancelled.
'We are actively and closely monitoring the situation, engaging with relevant stakeholders, and adjusting our operations in line with the latest updates,' said a spokesperson for the airline, which has 63 flights a week to and from Australia.
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The weapons used as fighting between Israel and Iran rages
The F-35 and the war for the skies Israel's strategy has been to quickly establish control over Iran's airspace, allowing its air force to bomb Iranian targets unhampered. This has been a multi-step strategy. Israel struck Iran several times last year, hitting air-defence facilities, including several S-300 mobile surface-to-air missile systems supplied by Russia. On Friday, the latest conflict's first day, Israel struck the remaining air-defence systems, building an unobstructed strike corridor for its planes to bomb Tehran. Many of these strikes were carried out by Israel's fleet of American-supplied F-35s, complemented by F-15s and F-16s. The F35 is a fifth-generation stealth fighter, designed to be all but invisible to air defences. Its listed combat range is smaller than the distance between Israel and Iran, suggesting Israel has managed to modify its fuel reserves without compromising its stealth capacity. That newly extended strike capacity will put other Middle Eastern countries on notice, said Dr Binoy Kampmark, a lecturer at RMIT University who focuses on armed conflict. Iran's air force is entirely outmatched. The country has a few hundred patched-together planes dating from the 1970s: Russian MiG-29s, American F-14s, some Chinese F-7s. Iran has claimed it has shot down at least three of the F-35s using surface-to-air missiles. Israel has described those claims as fake news. 'Both sides are exaggerating for propaganda purposes,' said Hashim. 'I did not think the Iranians had the capability to shoot it down – someone must have given them that capability recently.' Drone warfare Drones have rapidly reshaped the face of warfare. In an operation dubbed 'Spider's Web', Ukraine struck four airbases deep inside Russia this month using smuggled explosive drones hidden inside shipping containers. The crates were taken to near their targets by drivers unaware of what they were transporting, before the drones were remotely activated. Pilots flew them to their targets – or AI was used when the signal was lost. We have less detail about Israel's operations early in the fighting with Iran, but it seems to have pulled off a similar trick. The Israelis appear to have built a one-way drone base in Iran, which they used to strike missile launchers near Tehran. The attacks were supported by vehicles and commandos also smuggled into the country. 'That was not a one-off. This is now a pattern of behaviour. This will now require a rethink of interior defence around the world, including Australia,' said Adam Lockyer, an associate professor in strategic studies at Macquarie University. Iran responded by launching more than 100 drones of its own at Israel. Iran makes its own Shahed drones, which it has sold to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine. Said Kampmark: 'They certainly don't have the same firepower the Israelis do. But they have invested in low-cost technologies en masse. The Shahed drone is their masterpiece.' Loading The drones have a long range and carry 50-kilogram warheads, but they fly slowly. Israel, with assistance from the US, has been able to intercept and destroy most of them. Iran has had more success combining drone and ballistic missile attacks, with the aim of overwhelming Israeli missile defences. Israel's most notable defence network is the Iron Dome – a network of anti-ballistic missile defences spread throughout the country. Israel has also been using a new addition to this system, known as the Iron Beam, in its conflict in Gaza: a high-powered laser cannon that can shoot down drones and missiles. Ballistic missiles Iran has tried to retaliate against Israel by launching hundreds of ballistic missiles. The country has invested heavily in missile development and production and now has probably the best arsenal in the Middle East, said Hashim – ranging from the old to cutting-edge technology. 'Iran has put all its eggs in the basket of ballistic missiles because it has not been able to rebuild its air force,' he said. Iran's missile development program started with Russian-built Scud missiles 'that were totally inaccurate and just pieces of shit', he said. But Iran's weapons are now 'progressively more technologically advanced'. Iran even claims it has developed and, as of Wednesday, deployed 'hypersonic missiles', a key advance. Hypersonic missiles can fly five times the speed of sound while also manoeuvring to avoid air defences. 'That makes it very hard to intercept. Even the Iron Dome would find it hard to intercept some of these particular missiles,' said Kampmark. The country has also claimed to have found ways to confuse the Iron Dome and make it target itself, said Dr Oleksandra Molloy, a senior aviation lecturer at the University of NSW who has published papers on drones for the Australian Army Research Centre, as part of an overall strategy to 'saturate Israeli air defence networks and confuse radar operations'. 'While some will be intercepted, some will still get through.' Social media footage also appears to suggest Iran has deployed multi-warhead ballistic missiles, she said. 'These submunitions – often referred to as bomblets – are released from the missile's warhead during its terminal phase to disperse over a wide area and hit multiple targets,' she said. Bunker busters On Tuesday, several American news outlets reported US President Donald Trump was hoping to use the country's bunker-busting bombs as leverage to bring the conflict to a swift close; Trump has demanded Iran's unconditional surrender. The bunker-buster bombs have assumed central importance because of Iran's Fordow nuclear site, which houses thousands of centrifuges that are key to Iran's purported ability to make nuclear weapons. The complex is buried deep within a mountain. Israel has damaged Iran's other nuclear site at Natanz. But destroying Fordow presents a different challenge: munitions need to penetrate 80 metres of solid rock before hitting the underground bunkers. Only one bomb is capable of that: the US's GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator. The specially hardened shell of the bomb is designed to punch through the ground before exploding. The bomb is GPS-guided, but due to its extreme weight – more than 13 tonnes – it can only be dropped by the US's B2 Spirit stealth bomber.
