Why Netanyahu Government Is On The Verge Of Collapse And How He Can Save It
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is on the brink of collapse. Israel's two ultra-Orthodox parties - United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas - have announced plans to leave Netanyahu's coalition. They are demanding to pass a law that would continue exempting the ultra-Orthodox Israelis from military conscription-- a proposal that is fiercely opposed by Netanyahu's own Likud party, among other coalition members. The UTJ legislators have already submitted their resignations on Monday, while those of Shas are openly threatening to follow suit.
With both ultra-Orthodox parties likely on the way out, Netanyahu's coalition faces an unstable parliamentary majority with just 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. But that does not mean elections are around the corner.
Why The Two Parties Are Threatening To Quit
For over a decade, the ultra-Orthodox have supported Netanyahu even as the Israeli public turned on him. In return, the Prime Minister would give generous government subsidies to ultra-Orthodox institutions. He also protected the community from Israel's military draft, which mandated Jewish Israelis to serve in the Israel Defence Forces. Young ultra-Orthodox men were exempted from the rule and instead paid to study religious texts.
The arrangement has received backlash before, but the Hamas October 7 attack changed the scene, with the Supreme Court last year ordering an end to the exemption. Now, the ultra-Orthodox parties are trying to push for a new bill, but a consensus couldn't be reached for far.
Why Netanyahu's Government Is Safe For Now
For now, UTJ and Shas don't seem to be in a hurry to force Netanyahu out of government. They appear to be using the threat of exit as leverage to force Netanyahu's hand on the matter. Announcing their decision to quit, Shaa left the door for compromise open. They asked the lawmakers to enact a law in favour of ultra-Orthodox students "as soon as possible and no later than the opening of the Knesset winter session, so that it will be possible to maintain the existence of the government and the coalition partnership," according to a report by The Times of Israel.
The Knesset is set to go for a three-month recess on July 27. This gives Netanyahu ample time to try to resolve the crisis behind closed doors, while the government continue to function in a reduced capacity until late October, without facing immediate legislative challenges or no-confidence votes.
Netanyahu's Other Challenges
Soon after Shas's decided to leave Netanyahu's coalition, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said Israel's "illegitimate" government has no authority to make crucial decisions.
"A minority government cannot send soldiers to battle. A minority government cannot decide who will live and who will die. A minority government cannot decide the fate of Gaza, reach arrangements with Syria or Saudi Arabia. It cannot continue to transfer billions to the corrupt and the military draft dodgers at the expense of taxpayers," Lapid said.
He called for elections, which are currently due in late 2026.
Now, whenever that contest takes place, Netanyahu is likely to face the steepest political challenge of his career. He managed to survive the last election on a technicality in Israel's electoral system after his coalition received just 48.4 per cent of the vote. But since April 2023, no amount of success against Hamas, Hezbollah or Tehran seems to be helping the coalition win polls and alienating his closest allies may not work in his favour.
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