Pollsters' leaked plea to Dutton as campaign faltered: ‘Lighten up, offer tax cuts'
Leaked documents show the Liberals' pollster raised the alarm about the opposition's thin tax policy and told Peter Dutton he had to lighten up as the opposition leader's popularity cratered and his party careened towards a historic loss on Saturday.
Focus group studies conducted by pollster Michael Turner and seen by this masthead had been picking up a wave of negative opinions about Dutton, including an observation from one voter that he 'lacks empathy on screen when he talks' and another stating, 'I just don't like the guy, he gives me negative vibes.'
As recriminations over the loss escalate and Liberals jockey to be the party's next leader, the leaked documents show voter feedback prompted Turner, of polling firm Freshwater Research, to tell Dutton to ditch his hardened and sometimes wooden exterior.
In a document titled 'Project Majura' presented to Dutton and the tightest group of campaign operatives on April 30, just days out from the election, Turner wrote: 'Enjoy the campaign, with a relaxed, sincere tone, using relatable language.
'Convey a more relaxed and enthusiastic presence that signals Dutton is enjoying the campaign and engaging with voters.
'Ensure public engagements are delivered in a way that shows Dutton, and the Liberals, listen to voters, and understand what they are going through right now.'
Turner and Freshwater are now under fire for providing the Liberals polling that substantially overestimated the Coalition's primary vote in both public and internal research, giving Dutton a false sense of confidence about his election chances and policy.
Several public polls, including this masthead's Resolve Political Monitor, were closer to the mark after voters turned away from the Coalition over its stances on nuclear, its abortive plan to stop public servants working from home, and economic messages that failed to cut through.
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ABC News
an hour ago
- ABC News
Tasmanian election called for July 19, but both Liberals and Labor hamstrung on key issues
After a nail-biting few days of "will they, won't they, could they, should they," Tasmania's very, very early election is full-steam ahead. Except this one can't exactly be full steam, can it? After all, it's an election that nobody wanted brought on for a variety of reasons, including the dire state of Tasmania's budget situation. That was one of the reasons for Labor's successful no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff. Imagine making that a sticking point and then throwing cash at a bunch of bowls clubs (they're always on the funding list). If the major parties want to look like they're serious about getting Tasmania's finances back on track, they are going to need to avoid any form of pork barrelling. No matter how tempting. The Liberals have been accused of it the past three elections. Their response is to deny it's happening and insist they're simply listening to the community. Labor also made promises to sports clubs last election, but the plan was to have government departments "rigorously" assess them all before the funds were handed out. On top of that, Labor has said it wants to ban pork barrelling as part of its plan to fix the budget, it would be rather hypocritical to engage in it itself. But it's not just pork barrelling that arguably needs to go. Even a competitive sports grants process, which would otherwise be welcomed, could be a little on the nose, given the state barely has a cent to spare. And we all know that pool of money would not be up for grabs if it were not for an election. The other issue is the Liberals have just put out a budget. We know what they were planning to spend the money on, and where. Sure, they can change some things up — but how many sweeteners can they really surprise us with? So if they can't focus it on all the cash they want to drop, or their savings plans, that leaves policy. The Liberals have already begun to rethink theirs. Starting with privatisation. The premier announced just last Saturday the Liberals will not privatise any state-owned companies, and will in fact legislate so a two-thirds majority of parliament is required to sell them. Clearly they know going to an election with a "we want to explore privatisation" agenda is unlikely to win them many fans. It was also one of the reasons listed on the no-confidence motion. But how many other unpopular policies can they really rethink? The May decision to walk away from a treaty process was deeply unpopular among some Aboriginal groups, but there's no policy fix for the bungled process around the new Spirit of Tasmania ferry terminal, for example. The party's most unpopular position, an undying support for the almost billion-dollar Macquarie Point stadium, is unlikely to change. Lucky for the Liberals, Labor has taken the same stance, so it can't be used against them by the only other party viable to form government. But while the Liberals are trying to reconsider policies, Labor is going to need to come up with some (more). The party has been grappling with being stuck in the political wilderness for over a decade now. It lost the last election just 15 months ago. Badly. So, naturally, all policies are under review. With a little more notice of this election, it might have spent some time polishing them off, but it is partially responsible for this mess after all. When it comes to offering up something fresh, Labor's got the advantage of having a new leader, and as Dean Winter likes to remind everyone, "Labor has changed under me". Now is his time to really prove it. He certainly gained some kudos from the public for bringing the Spirit of Tasmania saga to light and has made it clear that the party backs workers. His mantra is almost "jobs, jobs, jobs". But the party still needs to figure out its position on a lot of issues. For example, just last month Mr Winter could not say if Labor was for or against a treaty. His argument was he could not take a side without consultation, but the issue is not exactly new. And Mr Winter has to transition from criticism to having solutions — fast. And answer questions such as whether Labor still wants to pause new permits for whole-home short-stay accommodation. Unclear. Or, what the plan is to cut the amount the state pays on locum doctors? Or, how it would go about closing the Ashley Youth Detention Centre if it's suddenly thrust into power. It is also a rare day when the party talks about what used to be some of its core issues — health, housing and education. And while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese talks about the need to balance industries and the environment, Mr Winter's pro-industry mantra can come across as "jobs at any cost". But where there is a void, there is always someone else happy to fill it. In this case, that is the Greens and other environmentally conscious crossbenchers. The same goes for the stadium. It is the crossbench who will be rewarded for their anti-stadium stance, and if the polls are anything to go by, it is a large crowd to capitalise on. But for how many Tasmanians will the stadium be their number one issue? Considering the Liberals' stuff-ups are fresh in people's minds, and Labor is copping a lot of the blame for the early election, the crossbench could very well benefit from voters' frustrations. But Tasmanians annoyed about the election also have a reason to take their anger out on the crossbench. Because, as much as the Greens and other independents like to spruik the power and benefits of minority parliament, most of them played a hand in blowing up that parliament less than halfway through its term. How can voters trust that won't happen again soon? Little about this election is going to be normal. But like it or not, in just over a month's time we're being dragged to the polls. No-one is coming into this unscathed and the end result is still anyone's game. Whatever the result, those 35 politicians owe it to Tasmanians to make it work for longer than 15 months, whatever it takes.
The Advertiser
3 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Budget debt and waterfront stadium light up island poll
Tasmania is off to the polls for the second time in less than two years for an election in which budget debt and a $1 billion AFL stadium will take centre stage. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff's request for the snap vote was granted by the governor on Wednesday night, six days after he lost the confidence of parliament. The July 19 election is the fourth for Tasmania in the space of seven years. Mr Rockliff, who was returned to power in minority at the March 2024 vote, refused to step down after the no-confidence vote, put forward by Labor. Governor Barbara Baker said despite a "prevailing public mood against holding an election" there was no alternative to form government. "Another election is not what I wanted, and I know that it's not what Tasmanians wanted," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor (10) need to get voters on-side to reach 18 seats, the mark required to govern in majority in Tasmania's 35-seat lower house. The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have presided over worsening net debt that is tipped to more than double to almost $11 billion by 2028/29. They have also been lashed for delays and cost blowouts to two yet-to-be-in-service new Bass Strait ferries. There are fears the early election will jeopardise Tasmania's licence for an AFL team and approval and construction timelines around a $945 million stadium in Hobart. The stadium is a condition of the AFL granting the Devils a licence and is supported by the Liberals and Labor, but opposed by the Greens - who hold five seats - and several crossbenchers who voted to punt Mr Rockliff. February opinion polling showed almost 60 per cent of Tasmanians were against the stadium. Campaign battle lines have already been drawn. The Liberals dropped a plan to investigate selling public assets and announced ex-federal MP Bridget Archer would run. Labor leader Dean Winter said it was time for a fresh start in Tasmania. "Our entire labour movement is united and ready to send the Liberals a loud message - Tasmania is not for sale," he said. The Greens, whose offer to form government with Labor was rejected, said the two major parties had put self-interest ahead of the state. "Jeremy Rockliff could have respected the will of the parliament and stepped aside for another Liberal leader," Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said. "Dean Winter could have sought to form government with other MPs." Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave Labor's Julie Collins a fright at the most recent federal poll, announced he would run at state level. The Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 state poll, with people largely jumping ship to minor parties and independents. Tasmania is off to the polls for the second time in less than two years for an election in which budget debt and a $1 billion AFL stadium will take centre stage. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff's request for the snap vote was granted by the governor on Wednesday night, six days after he lost the confidence of parliament. The July 19 election is the fourth for Tasmania in the space of seven years. Mr Rockliff, who was returned to power in minority at the March 2024 vote, refused to step down after the no-confidence vote, put forward by Labor. Governor Barbara Baker said despite a "prevailing public mood against holding an election" there was no alternative to form government. "Another election is not what I wanted, and I know that it's not what Tasmanians wanted," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor (10) need to get voters on-side to reach 18 seats, the mark required to govern in majority in Tasmania's 35-seat lower house. The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have presided over worsening net debt that is tipped to more than double to almost $11 billion by 2028/29. They have also been lashed for delays and cost blowouts to two yet-to-be-in-service new Bass Strait ferries. There are fears the early election will jeopardise Tasmania's licence for an AFL team and approval and construction timelines around a $945 million stadium in Hobart. The stadium is a condition of the AFL granting the Devils a licence and is supported by the Liberals and Labor, but opposed by the Greens - who hold five seats - and several crossbenchers who voted to punt Mr Rockliff. February opinion polling showed almost 60 per cent of Tasmanians were against the stadium. Campaign battle lines have already been drawn. The Liberals dropped a plan to investigate selling public assets and announced ex-federal MP Bridget Archer would run. Labor leader Dean Winter said it was time for a fresh start in Tasmania. "Our entire labour movement is united and ready to send the Liberals a loud message - Tasmania is not for sale," he said. The Greens, whose offer to form government with Labor was rejected, said the two major parties had put self-interest ahead of the state. "Jeremy Rockliff could have respected the will of the parliament and stepped aside for another Liberal leader," Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said. "Dean Winter could have sought to form government with other MPs." Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave Labor's Julie Collins a fright at the most recent federal poll, announced he would run at state level. The Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 state poll, with people largely jumping ship to minor parties and independents. Tasmania is off to the polls for the second time in less than two years for an election in which budget debt and a $1 billion AFL stadium will take centre stage. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff's request for the snap vote was granted by the governor on Wednesday night, six days after he lost the confidence of parliament. The July 19 election is the fourth for Tasmania in the space of seven years. Mr Rockliff, who was returned to power in minority at the March 2024 vote, refused to step down after the no-confidence vote, put forward by Labor. Governor Barbara Baker said despite a "prevailing public mood against holding an election" there was no alternative to form government. "Another election is not what I wanted, and I know that it's not what Tasmanians wanted," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor (10) need to get voters on-side to reach 18 seats, the mark required to govern in majority in Tasmania's 35-seat lower house. The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have presided over worsening net debt that is tipped to more than double to almost $11 billion by 2028/29. They have also been lashed for delays and cost blowouts to two yet-to-be-in-service new Bass Strait ferries. There are fears the early election will jeopardise Tasmania's licence for an AFL team and approval and construction timelines around a $945 million stadium in Hobart. The stadium is a condition of the AFL granting the Devils a licence and is supported by the Liberals and Labor, but opposed by the Greens - who hold five seats - and several crossbenchers who voted to punt Mr Rockliff. February opinion polling showed almost 60 per cent of Tasmanians were against the stadium. Campaign battle lines have already been drawn. The Liberals dropped a plan to investigate selling public assets and announced ex-federal MP Bridget Archer would run. Labor leader Dean Winter said it was time for a fresh start in Tasmania. "Our entire labour movement is united and ready to send the Liberals a loud message - Tasmania is not for sale," he said. The Greens, whose offer to form government with Labor was rejected, said the two major parties had put self-interest ahead of the state. "Jeremy Rockliff could have respected the will of the parliament and stepped aside for another Liberal leader," Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said. "Dean Winter could have sought to form government with other MPs." Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave Labor's Julie Collins a fright at the most recent federal poll, announced he would run at state level. The Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 state poll, with people largely jumping ship to minor parties and independents. Tasmania is off to the polls for the second time in less than two years for an election in which budget debt and a $1 billion AFL stadium will take centre stage. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff's request for the snap vote was granted by the governor on Wednesday night, six days after he lost the confidence of parliament. The July 19 election is the fourth for Tasmania in the space of seven years. Mr Rockliff, who was returned to power in minority at the March 2024 vote, refused to step down after the no-confidence vote, put forward by Labor. Governor Barbara Baker said despite a "prevailing public mood against holding an election" there was no alternative to form government. "Another election is not what I wanted, and I know that it's not what Tasmanians wanted," Mr Rockliff said in a statement. The Liberals (14 seats) and Labor (10) need to get voters on-side to reach 18 seats, the mark required to govern in majority in Tasmania's 35-seat lower house. The Liberals, who have been in power since 2014, have presided over worsening net debt that is tipped to more than double to almost $11 billion by 2028/29. They have also been lashed for delays and cost blowouts to two yet-to-be-in-service new Bass Strait ferries. There are fears the early election will jeopardise Tasmania's licence for an AFL team and approval and construction timelines around a $945 million stadium in Hobart. The stadium is a condition of the AFL granting the Devils a licence and is supported by the Liberals and Labor, but opposed by the Greens - who hold five seats - and several crossbenchers who voted to punt Mr Rockliff. February opinion polling showed almost 60 per cent of Tasmanians were against the stadium. Campaign battle lines have already been drawn. The Liberals dropped a plan to investigate selling public assets and announced ex-federal MP Bridget Archer would run. Labor leader Dean Winter said it was time for a fresh start in Tasmania. "Our entire labour movement is united and ready to send the Liberals a loud message - Tasmania is not for sale," he said. The Greens, whose offer to form government with Labor was rejected, said the two major parties had put self-interest ahead of the state. "Jeremy Rockliff could have respected the will of the parliament and stepped aside for another Liberal leader," Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said. "Dean Winter could have sought to form government with other MPs." Anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, who gave Labor's Julie Collins a fright at the most recent federal poll, announced he would run at state level. The Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the March 2024 state poll, with people largely jumping ship to minor parties and independents.
The Age
3 hours ago
- The Age
‘Entirely unacceptable': Ambassador condemns Australian sanctions on senior Israeli ministers
At Ben-Gvir's direction his ministry purchased thousands of rifles for settler communities, where some groups have been dispossessing Palestinians and committing violent acts. Smotrich has also made inflammatory public remarks, including stating that Gaza 'will be entirely destroyed' and suggesting Palestinians be forced to emigrate. Last year, he indicated the deaths of 2 million Palestinians by starvation in Gaza might be 'justified', comments that drew rebukes from allies including Germany. But British officials said the sanctions were also designed to pressure Netanyahu to negotiate a ceasefire as humanitarian conditions in the strip become increasingly dire. Hamas has not agreed to release all the remaining hostages. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the international community's patience had run out, declining to rule out further sanctions on the government of Israel. 'The situation in the West Bank and the situation in Gaza are untenable, both for civilians and long-term peace in the form of a two-state solution,' she said in Canberra on Wednesday. Wong gave multiple media interviews and a press conference about the sanctions on Wednesday in a departure from Labor's more reserved tone on the matter in its previous term of government, when former opposition leader Peter Dutton frequently castigated the government for breaking with Israel. The Israeli ambassador to Australia, Amir Maimon, said the Israeli government would meet early next week to determine how to respond. 'The decision to impose sanctions on two Israeli cabinet ministers is deeply concerning and entirely unacceptable. These ministers are part of a government that operates under the principle of collective responsibility, making such measures unreasonable,' Maimon said. Coalition foreign affairs spokesman Michaelia Cash did not make any comments supporting the two most hardline members of Netanyahu's cabinet. But she did question whether the Magnitsky-style sanctions used by the government were appropriate to impose on a democratically elected government. 'We are concerned that there is a pattern of decisions by the Albanese government targeting the Israeli government, rather than Hamas,' she said. The rocky pathway to a two-state solution will capture global headlines later this month at a New York summit to be hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Arabia. Australia has been involved in working groups for the summit, but officials at home and abroad have cast doubt on the prospects of reaching consensus, as diplomats hastily scramble to put together a clear agenda for the gathering. The two-state solution has been key Western policy for decades, but the Trump administration's ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, suggested this week that the US was no longer pursuing the goal of an independent Palestinian state. Asked by Bloomberg News if a Palestinian state remained a US aim, he said: 'I don't think so.' Under Australia's Autonomous Sanctions Regulations 2011, sanctions can be applied against individuals responsible for serious violations of human rights, including the right to life and protection from torture. Any Australian found to be dealing with the sanctioned individuals' assets faces penalties of up to 10 years' imprisonment or fines reaching $825,000. A leading Palestinian advocate in Australia, Nasser Mashne, said the sanctions were 'crumbs, tossed by the Australian government 613 days too late.' Loading 'While Australia has hesitated for more than 20 months, Israel has annihilated families, communities, journalists, aid workers, civil infrastructure, every last shred of life in Gaza,' he said. Daniel Aghion, of the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, said the two ministers' behaviour was 'reprehensible' and about 80 per cent of Israelis did not support them. 'However, if Australia were to sanction every cabinet minister in every government who has incited hatred and violence, we would end up breaking off diplomatic relations with half the world. This measure is an exercise in performative politics,' he said.
