Veteran analyst says Tesla Stock's breakout rides on one key level
Popular Fundstrat technical strategist Mark Newton feels Tesla's next big move hinges on a single chart line.
According to him, Tesla () stock's chart is flashing a make-or-break signal, a level that's likely to determine where it ends up, at least in the near term.
It's all about whether the bulls keep control or cede the upper hand to the bears, who've been the louder of the two this year. Momentum has been improving of late, but Newton's read is mostly straightforward.
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He feels that if investors respect this threshold, it opens the door for substantial upside potential, but if they fail, the trend risks rolling over.
No matter which side you're on, that key level is worth watching closely this week.
Falling deliveries and margin squeeze define Tesla's 2025 so far
The first half of 2025 for Tesla has been mostly about dropping delivery numbers and dwindling profitability, pressuring its core automotive business.
In Q1, deliveries dropped roughly 13% year over year, the steepest fall in roughly three years.
A big part of that is Tesla navigating an aging car lineup, the Model Y plant overhaul, and a consumer backlash tied to Elon Musk's political moves.The decline got even worse in Q2, with global deliveries tanking 13.5% year over year, missing Street forecasts by a wide margin. Weakness in Europe and growing competition in China were major drags.
Margins took a hit as well.
Operating income plummeted a massive 42% from a year earlier, on the back of price cuts and incentives squeezing its bottom line compared with prior periods.
On top of that, July registrations across major European markets were mostly soft, linked to ongoing regulatory hiccups and rival model launches, making things even more complicated.
The net effect is that Tesla's near-term growth story has moved away from volume gains and is more about its potential long-term breakthroughs in autonomy and ride-hailing.
Fundstrat's Newton: Tesla breakout hinges on $338 level
Tesla shares are at the cusp of a critical chart point, according to Fundstrat technical strategist Mark Newton.
His setup is simple.
A daily close above the $338 mark will potentially open the door toward $368, while $300 remains a critical medium-term support level.
At this point, Tesla stock is now trading near the $339 mark, which is just above Newton's breakout trigger. The question remains of whether it can hold that gain into the close and turn $338 from resistance into support.According to Newton, if buyers effectively defend the level, the path to $368 is technically clear.
Momentum levels have improved, and clean breakouts typically garner trend-following traders and short-covering from those bearish on the stock's moves.
Typically, the first move following a key breakout is a retest of the pivot. That's basically a snapback toward $338, which effectively stabilizes and is constructive.
For risk management, Newton feels that $300 is the 'line in the sand' for bulls. A decisive drop below that level may indicate that the rally is mostly just corrective rather than the start of a move higher.
The bottom line is that a close above $338 keeps $368 in play.
A snapback would argue for greater patience, with brighter buying spots closer to $338 on a successful retest or down near $300 if we see stronger momentum.
Tesla's Texas Robotaxi license fuels stock pop
Tesla stock is up almost 10% this week, and that rally has everything to do with Tesla's tangible steps in advancing its Robotaxi ambitions, along with encouraging demand signals.
The headline move is Texas officially listing Tesla Robotaxi LLC as a Transportation Network Company (TNC).
To put it simply, Tesla now has the legal right to operate a ride-hailing service statewide, just like Uber or Lyft.
At the same time, it's working towards getting separate approvals for a fully driverless service.
More News:
Tesla just got its biggest break yet in the robotaxi wars with a key permit
Bank of America drops shocking price target on hot weight-loss stock post-earnings
JPMorgan drops 3-word verdict on Amazon stock post-earnings
Under Texas's new SB 2807 framework, effective Sept. 1, fully autonomous operations need an additional DMV sign-off beyond the TNC license.
In short, Tesla has the go-ahead for a driver-based rideshare network at this point, but also has a clear regulatory lane to scale automation later.
On top of that, there's a small bump in demand for optics.
Reports suggest that Model Y wait times have stretched to four to six weeks, a stark reversal from earlier in the summer.
Though that metric isn't exactly gospel, longer waits initiate at tightening near-term deliveries.
Taken together, the narrative for Tesla seems a lot cleaner. Tesla could potentially monetize ride-hailing sooner while working toward full autonomy, delivering the Robotaxi service as advertised over the past several years.Veteran analyst says Tesla Stock's breakout rides on one key level first appeared on TheStreet on Aug 12, 2025
This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Aug 12, 2025, where it first appeared.
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