The Epstein files and Donald Trump

Hindustan Times

2 days ago

YOU ARE a rational person. When someone says the moon landings were faked, or that 9/11 was an inside job, you do not conclude that they must be in the know. Why, then, should you pay any attention to Jeffrey Epstein conspiracy theories, which have been swirling around since the last year of George W. Bush's presidency, when Epstein pleaded guilty in Florida to procuring a child for prostitution. When everyone in America's infotainment ecosystem is competing for attention, Epstein content generates more Epstein content until something else comes along to displace it. Ignoring this stuff seems wise. Yet there are reasons why a rational sceptic should spend a few minutes thinking conspiratorially.
Dumb as they are, some conspiracy theories are consequential. There have been at least 1,200 cases of measles in America this year because lots of people believe that the side-effects of the measles vaccine have been covered up. One of those people is the president of the United States (who has taken every position on vaccines). Another is the Secretary of Health who, when not injecting or slathering himself with testosterone, uses his position to replace health advice grounded in scientific research with health advice based on something he heard from a guy. Or take the QAnon conspiracy, according to which the 2020 election was a war waged by Donald Trump to save America from an elite clique of cannibalistic paedophiles. Among those who actually believed this stuff were some of the people who broke into the Capitol on January 6th 2021.
The Epstein case is not a pure conspiracy theory in the way QAnon, Pizzagate and other fantasies melding power and child abuse are. There was a real man called Jeffrey Epstein who became rich by managing money for private clients. He was acquainted with many powerful people, including the current president of the United States (who, the Wall Street Journal scooped, sent him a 50th-birthday card that read: 'A pal is a wonderful thing. Happy Birthday—and may every day be another wonderful secret.') Epstein was initially treated leniently by prosecutors. He hanged himself in prison in 2019.
Rather than kill off the conspiracy theory, Epstein's death prolonged it. Was he murdered to prevent the truth getting out? Maybe the answer was in the missing minutes of CCTV tape from his cell? Probably not. Anyone who thinks the government is capable of this kind of cover-up has not seen bureaucracy up close. And none of this is relevant to why the Epstein conspiracy theory has resurfaced right now. It was given new life because some of the most influential MAGA influencers, including Mr Trump himself and J.D. Vance, built up an expectation that once their people were in place they would release secret files that would blow the whole thing open. Pam Bondi, the attorney-general, invited some prominent conspiracists into the White House, promising a big reveal. Now people like Ms Bondi and Kash Patel at the FBI have failed to produce the goods, the only plausible explanation for the conspiratorially minded is: what if Mr Trump was in on it, too?
The result is that more than 80% of Democrats think the government is covering up evidence about Epstein, which is perhaps to be expected given that lots of them also believed the president was a Russian mole. More surprising is that, according to polling by YouGov for The Economist, half of Republicans agree.
Nobody knows the power of 'some people are saying' better than Mr Trump himself. He almost singlehandedly started two of the most widely believed American conspiracy theories this century: that Barack Obama was born abroad and that the 2020 election was stolen. He has remixed some old fairy tales too—remember how Ted Cruz's dad was suddenly involved in JFK's assassination when the senator was competing with Mr Trump in the 2016 primary? Even the Epstein story has its own Trump chapter. 'You have to ask: Did Bill Clinton go to the island? That's the question. If you find that out, you're going to know a lot,' Mr Trump said in 2019 after Epstein killed himself. He suggested that the suicide was murder and promised to release the files.
For America's leading conspiracy theorist to become the target of a conspiracy theory himself is delicious, but is it also consequential? Not in the obvious way. Perhaps this time is different, but the first law of Trumpodynamics is that his approval rating is impervious to news. His control over elected Republicans looks secure. Still, the Epstein story does reveal something about the limits of his power.
One of Mr Trump's special talents is his ability to change what people are talking about at will, as if he were surfing cable TV. An incomplete list of subjects given his treatment since his inauguration in January would include: the possibility of grabbing Greenland or the Panama Canal; Liberation Day tariffs; sacking Jerome Powell; humiliating Volodymyr Zelensky; humiliating Cyril Ramaphosa; letting Elon Musk loose on the bureaucracy; falling out with Elon Musk; rehabilitating Volodymyr Zelensky; rendering people to prison in El Salvador; sending troops to LA and bombing Iran. Over the past few days Google searches for Epstein have rivalled those for inflation, immigration or Iran (see chart). This is partly thanks to Elon Musk, who on the way out of the White House posted that the reason the Epstein files had not been released was that Mr Trump was in them.
Since the spike in unwelcome attention, Mr Trump has tried to get people talking about anything else. Normally he embraces support wherever it comes from. The white supremacists who marched in Charlottesville in 2017 were 'very fine people'. Nick Fuentes, who denies the Holocaust happened, was invited to dinner at Mar-a-Lago. This is the first time Mr Trump has disowned support, calling Republican voters who keep mentioning Epstein 'weaklings'. When that didn't work, he promised more disclosures, which sounds like a very short-term fix. 'Now you see why I didn't vote in 2024,' Mr Fuentes posted a couple of days ago. Having acquired a taste for criticising the president and finding they can get away with it, some of his supporters may find it is habit-forming.
Why does any of this matter? Mr Trump is a rich, powerful man leading a movement which contains people who believe that rich, powerful men cover up crimes for each other. The Trump movement includes free-traders and protectionists, pro-Ukraine people and pro-Russia people, those who want mass deportations and those who would spare hotel and farm workers. Mr Trump has kept them mostly happy by taking all these positions simultaneously. No other politician in America can do that. The Epstein story hints at what would happen were this ability to desert him. So it is also a preview of what could happen when someone without Mr Trump's talents tries to lead his movement.