Sensex jumps nearly 540 pts on Asian stocks rally
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Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Gold price rises 200% in six years. How expensive it may become in next 5 years?
Gold prices have delivered stellar returns to investors in 2025. The precious yellow metal on MCX has ascended over 30 per cent, other risky assets like silver surged nearly 35%, and the Nifty 50 index has risen around 4.65 per cent. The BSE Sensex has given around 3.75 per cent, while some Sensex heavyweights like Reliance share price have generated a little over 14 per cent in 2025. Nifty 50 heavyweight HDFC Bank shares have surged around 12.50 per cent. So, gold and silver have outshone other risky assets by a massive margin in YTD. The precious bullions have dominated the market in the long term, too. In six years, the MCX gold rate has risen from around ₹ 32,000 per 10 gm to around 97,800 per 10 gm, delivering a rise of over 200 per cent. According to commodity market experts, gold prices are expected to dominate the list of risky assets. The bears may deliver at least 40 per cent in the next five years, whereas the bulls may become expensive by over 125 per cent. Speaking on the gold price rally in recent years, Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart, said, "Gold has long held deep emotional and financial value in Indian households. It has also gained prominence as a strategic asset among global central banks in recent years. This shift has accelerated over the past two years, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which led to the freezing of a significant portion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves. As geopolitical tensions rise and tariff disputes continue, central banks increasingly turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a steady rise in its price." Santosh Meena of Swastika Inestmart said several key factors drive this renewed interest in gold. One of the most notable is the weakening confidence in the US dollar. Many central banks are diversifying their reserves to reduce dependency on the dollar, and gold is emerging as the preferred alternative. Another major driver is the rising US debt-to-GDP ratio, which raises concerns about the long-term stability of the dollar and further enhances gold's appeal as a store of value. The overall geopolitical instability climate also pushes institutional and retail investors toward gold as a reliable hedge against uncertainty. On why gold prices have risen in the last six years, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said, "Gold has delivered outstanding returns of nearly 200% over the past six years, rallying from around ₹ . 34,200 in June 2019 to approximately ₹ . 97,800 per 10 grams in 2025. This exceptional performance has been driven by global macroeconomic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, ultra-loose monetary policies, geopolitical tensions, and heightened financial market uncertainty." The SS WealthStreet expert said that the outbreak of the pandemic unleashed massive economic disruption and led to unprecedented monetary and fiscal interventions. Central banks across the globe slashed interest rates to near zero. They rolled out large-scale quantitative easing programs, injecting liquidity into the system and fueling inflation and currency debasement concerns. Simultaneously, real interest rates turned negative, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. Governments deployed aggressive stimulus measures, further expanding the money supply and reinforcing gold's role as a hedge against systemic risk. Sugandha Sachdeva went on to add that a string of geopolitical and financial flashpoints has further reinforced gold's appeal: 1] Russia-Ukraine war (Feb 2022); 2] US banking turmoil (SVB, Credit Suisse – early 2023); 3] Middle East conflict (Oct 2023); 4] Escalating US tariff war under President Trump (2025); 5] Record Central bank gold purchases; and 6] Persistent de-dollarisation efforts globally. "These tailwinds have propelled gold to fresh record highs of over ₹ 1,00,178 per 10 gm in 2025, and the environment remains supportive for structurally elevated prices over the long term," said Sugandha Sachdeva, adding, "While past returns may not be repeated at the same scale, multiple macroeconomic and structural forces point to further upside in gold over the next five years. The continued central bank purchases, strong ETF inflows, de-dollarisation drive, and rising debt levels in the US all point towards prices being meaningfully higher from current levels." On whether gold will be able to deliver this stellar performance again, "The ongoing strategic accumulation of gold by global central banks is likely to be a key pillar that would provide further strength to gold prices. Gold now comprises almost 20% of total central bank reserves against the US dollar's declining share, down from 73% in 2001 to 58% in 2025. Gold has emerged as a key beneficiary of central banks' diversification efforts. A shift towards a multi-polar currency world is eroding the dollar's dominance. Volatility in currency markets makes gold more attractive as a stable reserve asset. Furthermore, burgeoning public debt levels, particularly in the US, raise long-term fiscal risks and erode confidence in fiat currencies, making gold a crucial hedge against currency debasement." Sugaqndha said that ongoing and potential future conflicts (including economic, political, and military) will continue to elevate safe-haven demand. Beyond institutional buying, new channels of demand are emerging, such as China's insurance sector reportedly allocating 1% of its Assets Under Management (AUM) to gold, signifying growing institutional interest. ETF inflows and investor allocations toward non-yielding assets could remain strong if real yields stay suppressed. Moreover, a structurally weak rupee amplifies domestic gold price performance. Sugandha Sachdeva of SS Wealthstreet advised investors to continue investing in gold: "Gold continues to prove its mettle as a long-term store of value and a portfolio diversifier. Amid ongoing global uncertainties, rising global debt, elevated geopolitical risks, currency volatility, and policy-induced distortions, the yellow metal will likely remain a core hedge against systemic risks. Investors may consider systematic accumulation during price corrections and hold a strategic allocation over the next five years to enhance risk-adjusted returns." Regarding how much gold may become expensive in the next five years, Sugandha Sachdeva said, "Gold remains subject to intermittent corrections due to changing interest rate expectations or temporary strength in the US dollar. However, the major floor level is expected around ₹ 75,000-72000 per 10 gm, providing a strong downside cushion to prices. However, the gold price pattern suggests around ₹ 1,05,000 per 10 gm for the year, while for the next 5 years it could trend towards around ₹ 1,35,000 per gm to anywhere around ₹ 1,40,000 per 10 gm." However, Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart believes that stellar gold price returns may continue in the next five years. Geopolitical tension and a trade war are expected to keep the demand for gold as a safe haven intact. "In terms of performance, gold has delivered an impressive 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the Indian market over the past five years. If this trajectory continues, gold prices could reach ₹ 2,25,000 per 10 grams within five years. While short-term volatility is natural, the broader structural case for gold remains intact, supported by sustained central bank buying, currency debasement concerns, and the asset's historical role as a financial haven," Santosh Meena of Swastika Investmart concluded. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Economic Times
2 hours ago
- Economic Times
NephroPlus files DRHP with Sebi, to raise Rs 353 crore via fresh issue
(What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news, stock tips, Budget 2025, Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice, on ETMarkets. Also, is now on Telegram. For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds .) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Sensex Today. Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price, Axis Bank Share Price, HDFC Bank Share Price, Infosys Share Price, Wipro Share Price, NTPC Share Price
Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
Cipla to Bajaj Finserv - Jay Thakkar suggests three stocks to buy or sell for short-term in F&O segment
Stock market news: Stock markets fell for the second consecutive day on Friday, with the Sensex plummeting 721 points due to significant selling in financial, IT, and oil & gas stocks amid ongoing foreign fund withdrawals. The Sensex declined by 721.08 points, or 0.88%, closing at a low not seen in over a month at 81,463.09. At one point during the day, it dropped by 786.48 points, or 0.95%, reaching 81,397.69. The Nifty 50 decreased by 225.10 points, or 0.90%, to a monthly low of 24,837. Analysts indicated that a weak performance in Asian and European markets also affected investor sentiment. As per market analysts, Indian markets are likely to be influenced by the ongoing Q1 FY26 earnings season in the upcoming week, with numerous major firms preparing to disclose their results. Investors will be paying close attention to management discussions for insights on margin projections, sectoral developments, and more. On a global scale, the uncertainty surrounding potential tariff actions from the Trump administration continues to foster caution across markets, particularly in sectors sensitive to trade. Nevertheless, there is growing optimism regarding the possible finalisation of the India–US trade agreement, which, if achieved, will draw significant interest from investors in the days ahead. Nifty 50 closed well in the negative territory in the last trading session and by that it also closes the week on the negative side. Now we have the monthly close this week and the probability of the same being negative is higher if Nifty 50 continues to sustain below 25,000 levels. Bank Nifty is consolidating between the range of 56,000 to 57,000 levels so it has yet not broken out from the range. However the Nifty 50 seem to have broken the range on the lover side. The IV of Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty has been rising since the past couple of days indicating volatility ahead. The IV are still low in both Bank Nifty and Nifty 50 and IVP & IVR data indicates that IV are likely to expand hereon. so now on the upside utility 25,000 levels on Nifty 50 and 57,000 levels on Bank Nifty are not taken off the short term trend remains negative. Jay Thakkar of ICICI Securities recommends Cipla Ltd, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, and BSE Ltd. Cipla share price has broken out of its falling channel pattern, accompanied by a rise in Open Interest (OI), clearly indicating a long buildup. There is significant put writing at the ₹ 1,500 strike, suggesting strong support at that level. Call writing is visible at ₹ 1,600 which is our first stock is currently trading well above its max pain point of ₹ 1,520, indicating a positive bias and potential upside in the near term. BSE share price is forming a lower top–lower bottom structure, indicating a bearish trend. This is supported by an increase in Open Interest (OI), suggesting a short buildup. Additionally, the Max Pain is at ₹ 2,500, which aligns with resistance and further supports the bearish bias. Bajaj Finserv share price has given a breakdown from a triangle pattern, indicating a negative bias and weakness near the ₹ 2,000 mark, which also aligns with the Max Pain level, indicating strong resistance at that level, further strengthening the bearish outlook. Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 25/07/2025 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest. The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
