Will the new Online Gaming Bill spell disaster for India's betting platforms?
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We have done it again. All the king's men have come together to exorcise an old ghost, another spectre of 'foreign influence', that could have been tamed, harnessed and used to our advantage. Instead, we let it haunt us for years. And then in one fell swoop, we break in to cleanse and lustrate ourselves, treading the familiar path of least resistance with righteous claims to protect the poor, the Indian culture and the moral fabric of the youth.It's the leitmotif of a governance style: kill it, if you cannot regulate it. The Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill has again brought it to the fore.Once the Bill becomes a law, it would mark the end of the road for online betting on games like poker or rummy, or wagers on various outcomes - from what could be the bitcoin price in the next 24 hours to a wicket in the next over.So, what if it is 'game over' for some betting platforms that hire cricketers and actors to lure people with little money, clueless about what they are betting on? Perhaps no big deal. What, however, is startling is the way New Delhi moved in to crush an industry after letting it grow, attract investments and hire thousands, without trying to find a way to discipline the trade. Like cryptocurrencies, GoI, while shy to regulate gaming, has been nonetheless vocal in taxing it.The rush to squeeze a complex business without sensing its potential is not confined to gaming. Commodity futures were clamped down out of fear it would raise grain prices, for decades, India behaved like the proverbial ostrich as betting on the rupee flourished in Singapore, London and Dubai, and, more recently, a regulatory paranoia killed the forex futures market. Today, stifling taxes and reluctant bankers are pushing crypto trades overseas. We either tactlessly drove markets underground or 'exported' them to other countries. And while this went on, various stock options products were floated to entice retail investors who routinely lose money.The real-money gaming (RMG) story could have played out differently. No gov should ignore reports of farmers ending their lives or the poor, led up the garden path with glitzy ads and deceptive promises, falling into debt traps. But these harrowing incidents could have been avoided with rules and gatekeepers: persons below a minimum income or net worth could have been shunned from the gaming wonderland, sizes of bets could have been lowered, and the number of bets a person can place in a month could have been capped by improvising the platform software.Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Sikkim, Nagaland and other states with gaming frenzy could have come together with GoI, burying their differences, to decide the rules of the game and find common ground to address painful social issues.But everyone dug in their heels. Like many issues, gaming too turned political. States clung to their right as gaming - whether gambling, entertainment or digital sport - is a 'state subject'. GoI kept it in a limbo for a long time. And a fragmented, cut-throat world of gaming companies, fuelled by private equity money, turned greedy, refusing to settle for lower volumes and player count.Indeed, India could have housed an RMG hub in the GIFT City, inviting foreigners and residents to bet. We may want to be another Singapore and not Macau, but there's no harm if we can be both, and it would be a pity if we are neither. While the Bill wants to foster 'social games' and 'e-sports', these benign pastimes may not transform into a vibrant, bankable industry.The Bill's timing was impeccable: a day before the current Parliament session ends and well before the Supreme Court verdict expected before the House resumes in winter. The apex court would rule on multiple matters: whether poker and rummy are a game of 'skill' or 'chance', the huge retroactive GST claim on the industry, and the fate of the Karnataka and Madras High Courts' decisions that thwarted the two state Bills - similar to the one drafted by GoI - to curb RMGs.If SC sets aside the HC rulings, it would squash any hope the industry harbours. If it upholds HC rulings, or rules out a blanket ban on RMG, it could put a question mark on the new Bill and come as a glimmer of hope to the trade. Either way, the Bill may be challenged on expected grounds: GoI's legislative competence to act on a state subject, restricting the right to trade, and arbitrarily bundling the games of skill and chance. What would the top court do? Well, that is an outcome no gamer has the skill to predict - it's an unmixed game of chance.An ambush Bill tailed by a guessing game over a future court ruling can liven up conversations and enthral viewers of the 9 o'clock news. But does it bode well for business?
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