MLB trade deadline betting preview: Why the Rangers are undervalued

New York Post

2 days ago

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On May 28, the Yankees beat the Angels, 1-0, to run their record to 35-20 and their lead in the AL East to seven games.
The first third of the season could hardly have gone better for the Pinstripes, who were getting MVP numbers from Aaron Judge and Cy Young-esque numbers from Max Fried.
Everything was Hunky-dory, and it felt like the remaining 107 games of the season were just about getting the Bombers in the best shape for October.
Oddsmakers had the Yankees pegged as the clear favorite in the American League, with only the Los Angeles Dodgers boasting shorter odds to win the World Series.
Those days are long gone.
The Yankees have gone 21-18 since that win over the Halos, relinquishing their lead in the AL East to the Toronto Blue Jays in the process.
Aaron Boone and the Yankees are in danger of missing the playoffs.
JASON SZENES/ NY POST
The Bombers trailed the Jays by 6.5 games going into play on Sunday, and the oddsmakers have reacted by installing Toronto as a -250 favorite to win the AL East, with the Yankees sitting at +300. It's a big shift considering the Pinstripes were odds-on to top the division a week ago.
But you could make a solid argument that the price hasn't moved enough.
Not only have the Yankees played uninspiring ball for the last two months, but there aren't any concrete indications that things will just turn around.
The additions of Ryan McMahon and Amed Rosario should help stabilize things a bit, but they're not going to completely change a team that seems out of answers and desperate for a jolt.
What's more concerning is that the upcoming schedule for the Yankees is treacherous.
After wrapping up their series with the Phillies on Sunday, the Yankees host the Rays for four games, before a three-game set with the Marlins.
Tampa Bay is just 3.5 games behind the Pinstripes going into play on Sunday, and the Yankees have already let the Jays and Red Sox back into the mix by getting whitewashed in series. It would not be a huge shock to see the same thing happen with the pesky Rays.
After three games against the middling Fish, the Yanks will head to Texas for six games against the Rangers and Astros.
The Rangers are in the thick of the playoff race in the American League.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The streaking Rangers provide a terrific parallel for the Pinstripes.
The two teams are currently separated by one game, and they both have a similarly strong statistical profile.
According to MLB's expected win-loss metric, the Rangers 'should' be 61-44, which is six wins better than their actual output.
The same stat suggests that the Yanks 'should' be 61-43.
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This all boils down to the fact that the Bombers and Rangers boast the two best run differentials in the American League.
Despite their similar standing – Texas is five games back of Houston in the AL West – the betting market views these two teams very differently.
The Rangers are a whopping 50/1 long shot to win the World Series at Caesars, while the Yankees are sitting at 10/1.
So while you may be thinking now is the right time to buy low on the Yankees, the better option may be to pivot to a team with a remarkably similar profile to the Pinstripes.
The only difference is that the Rangers – the team being offered at 5x the price as their contemporaries – actually seem to be heading in the right direction.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.