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Tata Motors Q1 preview: Profit may tank up to 50% YoY; other details inside
Consolidated revenue is likely to decline around 9 per cent Y-o-Y, while Ebitda may fall sharply by over 40 per cent Y-o-Y amid margin pressure. JLR's performance is expected to be hit by weak demand in the US and China, along with adverse forex and tariff impacts.
Domestic operations may also see margin contraction due to negative operating leverage and rising costs. Investors will closely watch management commentary on JLR and CV demand and margin outlook.
Apart from that, Tata Motors total domestic sales in July 2025 dropped 6 per cent Y-o-Y to 65,953 units, from 70,161 units in July 2024. Total PV Sales also fell 11 per cent annually to 40,175 units.
On the bourses, around 1 PM, Tata Motors share price was trading merely 0.3 power cent higher at ₹656.65 per share. In comparison, BSE Sensex was trading flat with a negative bias at 80,658.05 levels.
Here's what top brokerages expect from Tata Motors in its Q1FY26 earnings show:
Nuvama Institutional Equities
Analysts at Nuvama noted that the revenue is expected to decline Y-o-Y, led by volume drops across India PV/CV and JLR businesses. Ebitda margin is likely to contract due to lower profitability in the JLR segment.
Key monitorables include demand and margin outlook for both JLR and India CV segments.
Thus, it expects consolidated revenue to come in at ₹98,083.7 crore, down 9 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebitda to decline 42 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹8,978.4 crore; and adjusted PAT to fall 50 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹2,638.7 crore.
Kotak Institutional Equities
Those at Kotak Institutional Equities said, Ebitda margin is expected to decline by 20 bps Y-o-Y, driven by negative operating leverage and commodity headwinds, partly cushioned by favorable net pricing.
JLR volumes (excluding China JV) are estimated to fall 12 per cent Y-o-Y, impacted by weak demand in the US and China. Revenues (ex-China JV) may decline 16 per cent Y-o-Y, although ASPs could rise 2.5 per cent QoQ on richer product mix and lower discounts.
JLR Ebitda margin is expected to drop 680 bps Y-o-Y to 9 per cent, with EBIT margin likely at 3.2 per cent, down 570 bps Y-o-Y due to operating leverage pressure, higher US tariffs, and adverse forex.
Domestic PV Ebitda margin is likely to decline to 6.8 per cent, down 100 bps Y-o-Y, due to negative operating leverage, higher IPL-linked marketing spends, and commodity inflation – partly offset by a better SUV-heavy product mix.
Thus, brokerage expects consolidated net sales at ₹98,005.3 crore, down 9.3 per cent Y-o-Y; Ebitda at ₹9,012 crore, down 41.9 per cent; and Ebitda margin at 9.2 per cent.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services
According to Motilal Oswal, India PV volumes are expected to decline 10 per cent Y-o-Y and CV volumes by 6 per cent Y-o-Y.
With weak demand, rising input costs, and higher discounts, margins are likely to remain under pressure for both segments. Ebitda margin is projected at 5.5 per cent for PV (down 30 bps Y-o-Y) and 10.7 per cent for CV (down 90 bps Y-o-Y). JLR volumes may fall 10 per cent Y-o-Y due to halted US-bound shipments in April, higher US tariffs, gradual phase-out of Jaguar, and weak global demand.
As a result, JLR Ebitda margin is expected to decline 400 bps Y-o-Y to 11.8 per cent. Overall, the brokerage expects consolidated Ebitda margin at 10.9 per cent, and adjusted PAT to decline 34 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹3,632.6 crore.
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