Target's in a brand identity crisis. It's not alone.
Don't get me wrong – the massive consumer boycotts from Black organizers have done damage. And there are probably folks on the far right who think even Target's toned-down, overwhelmingly beige Pride merch this year was still too loud.
But its stock is in the gutter, and sales have been falling for two years because of good ol' business fundamentals. It overstocked. It lost the pulse of its customers. It went up against Amazon Prime with… actually, does anyone know what Target's Amazon Prime competitor is called?
Plus the boycotts. Plus the joy-less Pride garb.
Now, investors have another wrinkle to consider. On Wednesday, Target replaced its CEO of 11 years, Brian Cornell — a shakeup that was widely expected and likely overdue. Taking his place to steer the brand out of its malaise is … Cornell's right-hand man.
The brand we petite bourgeoisie once playfully referred to as Tar-zhay has lost its spark. The company reported a decline in sales for a third straight quarter, part of a broader trend of falling or flat sales for two years. Employees have lost confidence in the company's direction. And 2025 has been a particularly rough financially, as Black shoppers organized a boycott over Target's decision to cave to right-wing pressure on diverse hiring goals.
Shares fell 10% in early trading.
It's not to say the new guy, Michael Fiddelke, is unqualified. He's been at Target since he started as an intern more than 20 years ago, after all. But Wall Street is clearly concerned that Target's leadership is underestimating the severity of the need for a significant change— just as President Trump's tariffs on imported goods threaten the entire retail industry.
Appointing a company lifer 'does not necessarily remedy the problems of entrenched groupthink and the inward-looking mindset that have plagued Target for years,' Neil Saunders, an analyst at GlobalData Retail, said in a note to clients Wednesday.
In its 2010s heyday, Target became a go-to for consumers who liked a bargain but didn't necessarily like bargain-hunting. The shelves felt well-curated. You'd go to Target because it had one thing you needed and 12 things you didn't know you needed. It was stocked with Millennial cringe long before Gen Z gave us the term Millennial cringe.
Target's sales held strong through the pandemic as remote workers set up home offices and stocked up on essentials. Months of lockdown also benefited the store as people began refreshing their spaces because they didn't really have much else to do and they were staring at the same walls all the time.
But things began to falter in 2022. Target over-ordered and wound up with a glut of unsold inventory, just as generationally high inflation was making things more expensive. As Covid subsided, consumer spending shifted to experiences. Taylor Swift was on tour and everyone wanted to take a vacation or make up for the bachelorette weekends we'd missed during lockdown.
Meanwhile, Target and other retailers began locking up products behind Plexiglass, claiming a scourge of shoplifting was to blame for disappointing profits — a cry that didn't always hold up to scrutiny. Locking up necessities has backfired in almost every way, annoying customers and burdening employees, yet Cornell stood by the decision and claimed on an earnings call that customers were actually grateful for the inconvenience.
Cornell's misplaced optimism about locking up shampoo was an early indication Target's management might have lost touch with its customers' lived experience.
Perhaps the biggest strategic misstep by Target came in January, when it joined a crush of American companies in dropping its diversity, equity and inclusion goals — a move that landed like a slap in the face to Target's more-progressive and racially diverse customer base.
'When Black people understood that we spend $12 million a day at Target … people begin to have the light bulb go off and say, I can't spend my dollars where I'm not getting dignity,' the Rev. Jamal Bryant, who led a boycott against Target, told CNN on Wednesday. 'We felt like it was a stark betrayal.'
The boycott worked. Target's sales and foot traffic have suffered even as rivals like Walmart, Amazon and Costco have thrived.
It's not just Target — other companies that have attempted to change the very idea of who they are have suffered the consequences.
McDonald's and Pizza Hut are both trying to win customers back as they balk at $18 combo meals (in McD's case) and seek out better deals from rivals (in the Hut's case).
Southwest Airlines is practically unrecognizable today as it ditches all the things — like open seating and zero baggage or change fees — that made it distinct from rivals.
Another brand in crisis is MSNBC. The news channel said this week it is rebranding itself as MS NOW, or My Source News Opinion World, for reasons beyond grammatical understanding.
Target doesn't seem to know whether it can revive its Tar-zhay magic or whether it morphs into something else.
'It's unclear what they represent,' wrote Jamie Meyers, senior analyst at Laffer Tengler Investments, in a note Wednesday. 'They're not an office retailer, a low-budget chain, a dollar store or a direct competitor to Walmart or Amazon.'
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KraneShares Hedgeye ETF KSPY Celebrates 1-Year Track Record
NEW YORK, Aug. 21, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- KraneShares is proud to announce the 1-year anniversary of the KraneShares Hedgeye Hedged Equity Index ETF (Ticker: KSPY). Since its launch on July 16, 2024, KSPY has provided investors with a systematic solution for participating in the U.S. equity market, combining opportunities for capital appreciation with conscious risk management. Invest in Gold American Hartford Gold: #1 Precious Metals Dealer in the Nation Priority Gold: Up to $15k in Free Silver + Zero Account Fees on Qualifying Purchase Thor Metals Group: Best Overall Gold IRA From inception, KSPY returned 9.53%, with an annualized volatility of 12.47%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 returned 14.12% with an annualized volatility of 19.46%.1 The performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed or sold, may be worth more or less than the original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. For performance data current to the last month-end, please visit The past year has included moments of significant market turbulence. Notably, from February 19th, 2025 to April 8th, 2025, when the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough drawdown of -18.75% as markets digested the 'Liberation Day' tariffs, KSPY limited its decline to -11.67%.2 The fund's annualized volatility during that period was just 19.23%, compared to the S&P 500 Index's 26.78%.2 'In today's rapidly changing market environment, investors are seeking strategies that balance upside potential while managing volatility,' said Brendan Ahern, CIO at KraneShares. 'KSPY's differentiated approach enables investors to stay invested while proactively managing risk during periods of uncertainty. Additionally, we believe investors who want to put new money to work but are cautious about current valuations and the sustainability of the U.S. bull market may find KSPY attractive.' KSPY was developed in collaboration with Hedgeye Asset Management and leverages Hedgeye's proprietary Risk Range™ Signals, a quantitative tool developed by Keith McCullough during his time as a hedge fund manager. These Signals analyze price, volume, and volatility, with the goal of identifying entry and exit points. Proving effective, as the S&P 500 has closed within Hedgeye's daily published Risk Range™ 83% of the time since 2015.3 'Hedgeye's Risk Range™ Signals provide a framework allowing KSPY to systematically adjust portfolio exposure,' said John McNamara, CIO of Hedgeye Asset Management. 'The goal being to benefit when market conditions are favorable and prioritize risk management when adverse. We believe KSPY's performance over this first year reflects the strategy's effectiveness in varying market conditions.' With features such as proactive risk management and the flexibility to adjust portfolio exposure as frequently as daily, KSPY is designed for long-term investors seeking equity market participation with embedded risk management. For more information on KSPY, including its top holdings, risks, and other fund information, visit About KraneShares KraneShares is an investment manager focused on providing innovative, high-conviction, and first-to-market ETFs based on extensive investing knowledge. KraneShares identifies groundbreaking capital market opportunities and offers investors cost-effective and transparent tools for gaining exposure to diverse asset classes. Founded in 2013, KraneShares serves institutions and financial professionals globally. Citations: Data from Bloomberg as of 7/31/2025. Data from Bloomberg as of 4/8/2025. Data from Hedgeye Asset Management as of 7/31/2025. Index definitions: S&P 500 Index (Ticker: SPX Index): The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the stock performance of 500 of the largest companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual Fund performance. Index returns do not reflect management fees, transaction costs, or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Definitions: Annualized Volatility: A statistical measure of how much the returns of an investment fluctuate over a year, calculated as the annualized standard deviation of periodic (daily, weekly, or monthly) returns. Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, charges, and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in the Funds' full and summary prospectus, which may be obtained by visiting: Read the prospectus carefully before investing. Risk Disclosures: Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. There can be no assurance that a Fund will achieve its stated objectives. Indices are unmanaged and do not include the effect of fees. One cannot invest directly in an index. This information should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational purposes and is subject to change. Certain content represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results; material is as of the dates noted and is subject to change without notice. KSPY may invest in derivatives, which are often more volatile than other investments and may magnify KSPY's gains or losses. A derivative (i.e., futures/forward contracts, swaps, and options) is a contract that derives its value from the performance of an underlying asset. The primary risk of derivatives is that changes in the asset's market value and the derivative may not be proportionate, and some derivatives can have the potential for unlimited losses. Derivatives are also subject to liquidity and counterparty risk. KSPY is subject to liquidity risk, meaning that certain investments may become difficult to purchase or sell at a reasonable time and price. If a transaction for these securities is large, it may not be possible to initiate, which may cause KSPY to suffer losses. Counterparty risk is the risk of loss in the event that the counterparty to an agreement fails to make required payments or otherwise comply with the terms of the derivative. Hedges may have imperfect matching between the derivative and the underlying security; there is no assurance that hedging will be effective. Hedging may reduce or eliminate losses or gains. Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC's ("HRM") ability to publish daily Risk Range™ signals is heavily dependent on the manual activities of a single individual, HRM'S CEO and founder ('Key Man'). In Key Man's absence, the Risk Range™ signals will be published by another individual ('Secondary Calculator'). The formula utilized by the Secondary Calculator is based on a formula that incorporates the same factors as the formula used by the Key Man but this formula is not identical to the formula utilized by the Key Man. If the Key Man were to leave HRM or is unable to calculate the Risk Range™ signals, the Risk Range™ signals and the Underlying Index may not function as designed and adversely impact KSPY. KSPY is new and does not yet have a significant number of shares outstanding. If KSPY does not grow in size, it will be at greater risk than larger funds of wider bid-ask spreads for its shares, trading at a greater premium or discount to NAV, liquidation and/or a trading halt. Narrowly focused investments typically exhibit higher volatility. KSPY's assets are expected to be concentrated in a sector, industry, market, or group of concentrations to the extent that the Underlying Index has such concentrations. The securities or futures in that concentration could react similarly to market developments. Thus, KSPY is subject to loss due to adverse occurrences that affect that concentration. Large capitalization companies may struggle to adapt fast, impacting their growth compared to smaller firms, especially in expansive times. This could result in lower stock returns than investing in smaller and mid-sized companies. KSPY is non-diversified. ETF shares are bought and sold on an exchange at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the Fund. However, shares may be redeemed at NAV directly by certain authorized broker-dealers (Authorized Participants) in very large creation/redemption units. The returns shown do not represent the returns you would receive if you traded shares at other times. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. Beginning 12/23/2020, market price returns are based on the official closing price of an ETF share or, if the official closing price isn't available, the midpoint between the national best bid and national best offer ("NBBO") as of the time the ETF calculates the current NAV per share. Prior to that date, market price returns were based on the midpoint between the Bid and Ask price. NAVs are calculated using prices as of 4:00 PM Eastern Time. 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Under the Agreement, HAM is compensated, in part, on the asset size of the Fund and therefore benefits directly from investments in the Fund. HAM is a subsidiary of HRM. HRM provides Hedgeye Risk Range™ signals to HAM under a licensing agreement. As such, HRM benefits directly from investments in the Fund. The Fund is not in any way advised, managed, sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by HAM or HRM, and neither HAM nor HRM make any claim, prediction, warranty or representation whatsoever, expressly or impliedly, either as to (i) the results to be obtained from the use of the Index, (ii) the performance or price of the Index at any particular time on any particular day or otherwise, or (iii) the merchantability, fitness or suitability of the Index for the particular purpose to which it is being put in connection with the Fund. 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Trump plans ride-along with troops in Washington, D.C., crackdown
President Trump said he's planning to ride along Thursday night with troops patrolling Washington, D.C., as part of his federal crackdown. 'I'm going to be going out tonight, I think, with the police and with the military,' Trump told conservative commentator Todd Starnes. 'So we're going to do a job. The National Guard is great. They've done a fantastic job.' Trump gave no additional details of which law enforcement or military units he might join or when and where. Trump's move to personally join the controversial crackdown, which has lasted for two weeks, would amount to a new escalation in the show of force from the White House. Hundreds of federal agents and National Guard soldiers have surged into the streets of the nation's capital this month, leaving some residents on edge and creating tense confrontations in the streets. Although the city has historically struggled with high crime, crime rates were sharply declining before Trump declared a putative emergency that required urgent federal intervention. Troops and agents from an alphabet soup of different agencies have set up checkpoints on busy city arteries, injecting their authority into daily life. Immigration enforcement has been a core part of the crackdown, rattling immigrants and Latino American citizens in many of the city's diverse neighborhoods. Since Aug. 7, when Trump began surging federal agents into the city, there have been 630 arrests, including 251 people who are in the country illegally, according to the White House. Trump has been ratcheting up the pressure since then, claiming control of the D.C. police department on Aug. 11 and deploying more National Guard troops from Republican-led states. Soldiers have been largely stationed in downtown areas, such as monuments on the National Mall and transit stations. But federal agents have started to operate more widely through the city, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser acknowledged Thursday. 'The surge of federal officers is allowing for different types of deployments, more frequent types of deployments, like checkpoints,' Bowser said. Democrats have denounced the federal crackdown as a political stunt. The law that permits the feds to exercise wide authority over law enforcement in Washington, D.C., says the crackdown can only last for 30 days unless Congress approves an extension. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has said Democrats will block any effort to extend Trump's emergency. _____
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Retail earnings highlight consumer trade-offs amid tariffs
The U.S. economy didn't blink this week — but it did recalibrate. Four of America's biggest retailers told a remarkably consistent story from different aisles: Shoppers are trading down but not tuning out; housing-linked spending is soft; tariffs are migrating from headlines to line items; and the winners are the companies that make saving money feel fast and easy. Walmart's cart was fuller, Target's was fussier, Lowe's leaned into professionals, and Home Depot reminded everyone that big-ticket remodels are still on ice. If you're trying to read the cycle, you could do worse than reading receipts. Collectively, their guidance painted a picture of slow but steady expansion. Walmart and Lowe's raised their outlooks, Home Depot reaffirmed, and Target held steady. That consensus doesn't scream boom times, but it doesn't exactly spell out a recession, either. Wall Street's reaction matched the tone of the results: Walmart slid about 4% on thinner-than-expected profits; Target sank around 7% after a disappointing CEO replacement pick; Lowe's climbed on a quarterly beat and its pro-builder acquisition; and Home Depot wobbled on a near-miss on earnings before shares ended the day modestly higher on what the Street saw as strong positioning. Taken together, the verdict was the corporate version of a sigh: a muddle-through, not a meltdown. Look at Walmart first . Its top line grew — revenue hit $177.4 billion, U.S. comparable sales rose 4.6%, and global e-commerce soared 25% — but its profits lagged. Adjusted EPS landed at $0.68, under expectations. Margin pressure came from Walmart's deliberate trade-off: The company rolled out around 7,400 'Rollbacks' to pull in value-hunters and paired them with faster fulfillment (a third of orders arrived in under three hours). That's a powerful combination for traffic, but it's an expensive one for margins. Walmart's success this quarter looks less like a boost in spending and more like strategic price programming paired with logistical muscle. Target tells the other side of that same story. Target's discretionary categories (apparel, home goods, electronics, etc.) were weaker, pulling the overall sales mix away from higher-margin non-essentials and deeper into the basics. Store comps fell 3.2%, though digital grew 4.3% thanks to same-day services. To offset those weaker store sales, Target took a multipronged approach, pivoting toward other revenue streams. Non-merchandise (ads, memberships, marketplace) revenue jumped 14.2%, cushioning against goods margin erosion from tariffs and markdowns. Shoppers may be tucking their wallets tighter — but if convenience is baked in, they'll still swipe their cards. Target's stable guidance despite weaker in-store comps suggests that it trusts the consumer hasn't disappeared; they're just shopping differently. Together, these narratives illustrate a consumer who hasn't given up — but one who has recalibrated. Groceries, OTC staples, and easily delivered essentials remain in demand. Spending on discretionary items — furniture, fashion, home decor, and more — is being deferred unless there's a compelling price cue or frictionless convenience. The signs are less belt-tightening than basket-rebalancing. Essentials and value are in; big splurges and nice-to-haves can wait. When policy hits the receipt Tariffs no longer live in policy punditry; they've moved squarely into earnings slides . Walmart flagged rising import costs projected into the back half of the year, even as it leans harder on Rollbacks to maintain traffic. Target leadership framed tariffs as a volatile, hard-to-plan headwind, stressing that the company is mitigating costs and will only hike prices 'as a last resort' despite mounting margin pinch. Home Depot, which earlier in the year vowed to hold prices steady, is now signaling some 'modest' price hikes. This week's quarterly reports come as July wholesale inflation posted its largest monthly gain in three years — producer prices surged 0.9%, with trade services inflation indicating steeper supply-side pressure. Right now, retailers are stuck playing volleyball with their margins: If they spike prices too quickly, consumers pull back. If they hold the ball too long, their earnings could erode. Tariffs now function as a margin tax, not a policy debate — and the question for each retailer becomes where to concede and where to compete. But the squeeze is broader than just CEOs admitting fault lines. Tariff exposure varies by product category — hard goods such as appliances, electronics, and tools lean heavily on import chains, while groceries and consumables remain more insulated. A Barron's article after President Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' announcement said some retailers — including Walmart and Home Depot — could be more tariff-proof because of their pricing power and essential product lines. And the economics of how costs get passed along — or not — are evolving. Harvard Business School research shows that early in the year, retailers absorbed much of the impact by shrinking margins, front-loading inventories, or redirecting supply rails; price hikes have only been modest so far. Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley estimated that softline retailers (fashion, home textiles) could see EPS hit by up to 35% as they shoulder tariffs, even with just a 1% price increase and a 3% drop in volume. Goldman Sachs' latest analysis has estimated that U.S. businesses have absorbed about 64% of tariff-related costs so far, meaning consumers have taken on the remaining 36% in higher prices. Extrapolating forward, Goldman projects continued inflation pressure: 0.2 percentage point already added to core PCE by mid‑2025, with a further 0.16% in July and potentially 0.5% more over the rest of the year, underscoring how tariffs are translating into persistent inflation — even without sudden retail shockwaves. Housing chills, aisles adapt If the consumer economy is muddling through, the housing market is wandering through a funhouse mirror. With 30-year mortgage rates still in the mid-6s , home affordability is at its lowest in decades, and turnover has slowed to a crawl. Builders keep breaking ground, but completions lag, and sentiment among homebuilders has sunk to levels usually reserved for recessions. That disconnect is bleeding straight into retail aisles: Households aren't cracking, but they're deferring the big stuff. Welcome to the Twilight Zone . Home Depot missed on both sales and earnings: $45.28 billion in revenue versus $45.36 billion expected, and $4.68 EPS versus $4.71 anticipated. Management held its full-year guidance, but the message wasn't confidence — it was steadiness amid deteriorating conditions. Store visits fell 2.2% YoY in the second quarter after a 3.9% drop in the first quarter, per and inside comparable sales, average ticket ticked up a little over 1% while transactions edged down a bit, a sign that big projects remain deferred even as maintenance spending continues. Big-ticket remodels — kitchens, baths, and basements — don't happen when rates are high and home sales frozen. For the weekend warrior, the paint project still goes ahead; the dream addition doesn't. Two aisles over, Lowe's took a different tack. It beat expectations on comps and earnings. Comparable sales rose 1.1%, and management raised its full-year outlook. Then Lowe's dropped a not-so-subtle strategic bombshell: an $8.8 billion acquisition of Foundation Building Materials . The math shows that contractor activity is still running, and Lowe's is leaning into that demand stream. Where retail homeowners pause big projects, pros keep working. Institutional demand from contractors is less rate-sensitive than for a family in Pittsburgh deciding whether to refinance before redoing their kitchen. The housing market's bigger picture explains part of the market's uneven footing. Households are deferring big commitments, while business-driven spending trudges on. Zoom out, and the data agrees. July retail sales were up half a percent; producer prices rose sharply. Cash registers are still ringing, even if the margins are tighter. It's not a boom or a bust. It's late-cycle pragmatism, where 'muddle-through' looks like the baseline until housing thaws, tariffs ease, or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Swipe now, stumble later? If consumer resilience has kept receipts steady, the credit side of the ledger tells a shakier story. Household debt crossed $18 trillion this summer, credit card balances hit record highs, and delinquency rates are drifting back to pre-pandemic levels. Retailers may be pulling levers to keep traffic flowing, but they're doing it in an environment where shoppers are leaning harder on credit just to sustain 'normal' spending. That dependence creates fragility — the next rate shock or labor market wobble won't just dent sentiment, it could puncture the ability to swipe. Put everything all together, and the picture looks like an economy that hasn't cracked but hasn't found balance either. Retail is still ringing up sales, housing is still breaking ground, and jobs are still paying wages — but each line comes with a footnote. What Walmart, Target, Lowe's, and Home Depot showed this week is that the U.S.' consumer engine is still running, just with less of a cushion, more friction, and a lot more dependence on tactical pricing and policy outcomes. For now, the tightrope holds. The question is how long it takes before gravity starts to matter. There's also a subtler role retailers are playing: shadow inflation managers. Tariffs, freight, and wages are raising input costs, but companies aren't just passing them straight through. Instead, they're absorbing some pain in margins, hiding some in packaging and assortments, and offsetting the rest with loyalty perks and lightning-fast fulfillment. The Fed may set the target rate, but Walmart's rollbacks and Target's membership perks are the real-world tools that decide how much households may actually feel inflation week to week. That's why these four earnings matter well beyond their aisles. They offer a map of how the private sector is engineering stability when the macro picture is stuck in the gray. Call it cycle hedging: each retailer has carved out a buffer — Walmart trades margin for loyalty, Target backfills with ads and memberships, Lowe's courts the pro channel, and Home Depot waits out the rate freeze — designed not to accelerate growth but to cushion the landing. They're not chasing a boom; they're buying insurance against a bust. For consumers, the pattern is just as plain. They're not slamming their wallets shut, but they're choosing carefully: ordering curbside instead of browsing aisles, replacing the washer before remodeling the kitchen, keeping projects small until housing thaws. In that sense, retail isn't just reflecting the economy, it's refereeing it — deciding which costs get passed on, which get hidden, and which get smoothed into 'everyday low' and 'same-day delivery.' And this week's quarterly guidance from these four retail titans offers a weather report for the economy: not stormy, but overcast, with possible breaks ahead. That's the kicker: this isn't a story of retail as a lagging indicator, but retail as the economy's frontline manager. The receipts aren't just reporting demand — they're shaping it. The skies may be gray, but as long as value and speed stay in stock, the U.S. economy can keep muddling through with the cart half full.
