Why Putin and Xi will be panicking over Iran

Telegraph

16-06-2025

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will be following the conflict in the Middle East with deep concern as the Iranian regime appears increasingly frail.
Both countries have publicly spoken in support of Iran by strongly condemning Israel for its attack that has so far killed top personnel, and hit defence systems, military targets and nuclear enrichment sites.
As Iran is weakened, both China and Russia lose a key partner that shares an interest to rage against what they see as US hegemony in the region.
Russia loses yet another portal through which it could attempt to regain supremacy in the Middle East, following the December fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria, where it used to have a robust military presence.
'They do share disdain for Western values and systems,' said Tuvia Gering, a China and Middle East specialist at Israel's Institute of National Security Studies.
'They also learn from each other and share technologies on how to suppress their own populations.'
But as tensions escalate, the partnership with Iran is 'increasingly turning into a liability'.
One area where Russia is not worried about is a continued supply of Iranian drones, which have been key in its war on Ukraine, noted Nicole Grajewski, a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who specialises in Russia and Iran.
Drone factories set up in Russia are capable of producing independently without Iranian support – as many as 2,700 a month.
But the most pressing issue is a mutual concern that Iran will use heightened tensions as a pretext to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and race toward building a weapon – something Tehran had previously already threatened.
China and Russia both have nuclear weapons, and as is the case with all countries holding such firepower in their arsenal, neither are particularly keen to see Iran develop its own.
It would mean less control over Iran, as the latter would be far less dependent on the fearsome dragon and bear.
China, as the biggest customer of Iranian oil products, will suffer from Israel's attacks on Iranian oil and gas facilities.
Beijing imports as much as two million barrels of oil a day from Iran, which accounts for a significant portion of its energy needs.
If conflict escalates and Iran attacks the US military presence in the UAE and Saudi Arabia – also key energy suppliers to China – then the latter could see further disruption to its energy supply.
'It's an energy security risk,' said Mr Gering. 'For a country already suffering under the strain of an economic downturn and a trade war [with the US], it's not an ideal scenario.'
Long-term sanctions on Iran make it a poor trade partner, which means China won't benefit as much on infrastructure investment projects, and Russia won't have a buyer for defence materials.
There is a scenario where, once the dust settles, both could 'increase their arms exports, but Iran doesn't have the capital to pay for this, so it would probably be barter', said Ms Grajewski.
A weak Iran isn't beneficial, as 'both China and Russia have a preference for these stable authoritarian regimes with similar outlooks on the international system'.
On the surface, Iran's partners are acting as expected, but behind the scenes, a flurry of activity reflects deepening worries about the current situation spiralling out of control.
Russia, for instance, called for an emergency meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog's board to be held Monday morning to discuss the impact of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Putin has held calls with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and Mahmoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, and Donald Trump, going so far as to offer to mediate.
Xi has come out to say, 'Israel must be stopped.' China, too, has engaged both sides, with Wang Yi, ther foreign minister, speaking with his Iranian and Israeli counterparts.
Russia was not as diplomatically active in the last round of Israel-Iran strikes in October 2024.
This 'might be because the Kremlin views this as more of a situation that's uncontrollable', said Ms Grajewski.
There may be 'concerns about this spilling over, also the destabilisation of Iran and its interest in the region, could be one of the rationales behind the outreach'.
Beijing is gritting its teeth in the event of regime change – as there was in Afghanistan and Syria in recent years – so that they can 'make nice with whoever is left to rule', said Mr Gering.