It's all about the seats

Daily Express

22-06-2025

Published on: Sunday, June 22, 2025
Published on: Sun, Jun 22, 2025
By: Datuk Teddy Chin Text Size: NOW that Kaamatan is over and Hari Raya Haji has just been celebrated, the question of when is the State election is the hot topic in coffeeshops again. Sabah is not short of soothsayers or Nujum Pak Belalang to borrow P. Ramlee's words. Whatever it is, dissolution of the State Assembly is not expected before TYT's birthday celebration on the 3rd weekend of this month followed by Awal Murharram holiday at the end of the month. Neither is election expected before National Day or Merdeka cum Sabah Day on August 31, if you like, and Malaysia Day on September 16. The State Assembly is set to meet for two days in early July so it got to be after that. But when? However, dissolution of the State Assembly and the actual election dates are two different things. The dissolution date is up to the State Government of the day with the consent of the Governor while the election date is up to the Election Commission. Election must be held within 60 days from the date of dissolution. Meaning if the Assembly is dissolved in September, election is likely to be in October or early November. A little bird on the tree told me that the Assembly might be dissolved in September. But which part of September remains to be seen for example whether it's after Malaysia Day pn Sept 16 or…. most probably late September as the present State Government was elected late 2020.
Advertisement Next comes the question of whether the State ruling coalition of GRS+ will maintain its cooperation or GRS may go solo as hinted a few times. The + here refers to GRS plus PH comprising DAP, PKR, Upko and Amanah. Recently PM Anwar floated the idea of including BN in the 'Plus' but by now it is obvious that GRS is only keen on cooperating with PH but not the Umno-led BN. So it's either GRS going solo or the present arrangement of GRS+PH to continue. CM and GRS chairman Datuk Seri Panglima Hajiji Hj Noor recently indicated that he prefers the present arrangement to continue. This was echoed by GRS Secretary-General Datuk Seri Panglima Masidi Manjun who said that everything will be finalised at the GRS Supreme Council meeting expected end of this month or early July. So all signs point to a GRS+PH coalition. But for the purpose of this article and for argument sake, let's first assume that GRS goes solo for understandable reasons. If GRS goes solo, Tan Sri Pandikar Amin, Datuk Seri Panglima Yong Teck Lee and Datuk Seri Panglima Dr Jeffrey Kitingan will be the happiest persons because this is what they wanted all along. Pandikar leads Usno, Yong SAPP and Jeffrey Star. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why the trio wants GRS to go solo. For the record, both Usno and SAPP failed to win a single seat in the 2020 State election. Star won half a dozen but it is no secret that Dr Jeffery wants his party to be given as many seats as possible. He reasoned that every party has a right to request for seats and whether they get what they want is another matter. PBS, with whom Star was supposed to have merged, has remained silent on the number of seats it is aiming. This is good strategy. It is better to silently discuss at closed-door meetings then shouting through the Press. If GRS goes solo, then the eight component parties will have 73 seats to divide among themselves. PGRS, the leader of the pact or being the 'Tai Koh' as it is the CM's party, is expected to be given the lion's share. Even parties (including LDP, PCS and PHRS) which did not win a single seat in 2020 will then have a better chance to contest. I don't expect them to be given a lot of seats though. Maybe a few lah. I understand that the formula is that it will be status quo. Meaning, for example, if a seat is currently represented by PGRS, then it goes back to PGRS. I suppose that includes assemblymen from Warisan and Umno who had crossed over to PGRS. The PGRS assemblymen won their seats on PN/Bersatu ticket in 2022 but they are now in PGRS. They 'jumped' before the law was amended. So they are safe. One of Umno's conditions if it's a PH-BN-GRS is that it must contest the seats that it won in 2020 (13 I think). Don't know yet if they would ask for more. If you were GRS, would you agree? What more if it were a GRS-PH-BN coalition, even within GRS itself also all is not well as indicated by Pandikar's threat to quit the coalition recently. As Dr Jeffrey said, naturally each part wants to get as many seats as possible. That being aside, it is only to be expected that each party will respect its coalition partner. Even if you are aiming for the same seat, at least respect your coalition partner lah. I may be wrong and stand to be corrected. Recently a very senior PBS leader openly stated that his party is aiming for the Kukusan seat in Tawau. May be his reason is that Kukusan was won by Warisan and therefore it's everybody's cake now. Fair enough. But he seems to forget that the Kukusan YB has since crossed over to Tan Sri Liew Yun Fah's party PHRS and is now that party's sole elected Assemblyman. How do you think PHRS will feel? You don't do that to your coalition partner. There are 72 other seats for you to grab apart from Kukusan. Leave Rina Jainal alone lah. Out of the 8 GRS component parties, only 3 – PGRS (formerly Bersatu), PBS and Star – won seats in the 2020 State election. So why admit the 5 who didn't wina a seat? This is Hajiji's political style. He wants to bring as many local parties as possible under GRS's wing. Hajiji has seen how powerful local parties can be when they are united, as proven by Sarawak. Nobody can touch Sarawak. It is perhaps this style of Hajiji which made certain people unhappy to the extent that they tried to topple him in January 2023. But they underestimated Hajiji and failed miserably. Today, they try to team up with GRS indirectly. First, they got the PM and Unity Government to announce that PH and BN to face the Sabah election together, expecting GRS to follow suit. But Hajiji is not stupid. He is not someone to be pushed around. He has been a YB since 1990. He knows what he is doing. OK now let's assume that the GRS+PH arrangement will go on. The present arrangement was made when Datuk Seri Panglima Christina Liew was PH Chairman for Sabah early 2023. But things have changed. Christina is no longer the Chairman. The new Chairman is Upko Chairman Datuk Ewon Benedict. It is an open secret that he and Sabah DAP leader Ginger Phoong 'clique' like abang adik since Warisan time when they were described as the two young turks. So we don't know what is in these two young men's mind. Soon after his election as Sabah DAP chairman, Ginger already issued a statement saying that his party would reconsider its alignment with the State Government in the light of the so-called minerals 'scandal'. I understand that DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke has no problem with DAP working with GRS. All this talk about State autonomy, to me, is only egoistic. On Upko's part, it shouldn't forget that the party won only one seat (Ewon's own) out of the one dozen it contested. So when they make demands I hope they are realistic. Hajiji is keen on the GRS-PH coalition partly to give face to PM Anwar as PKR is his party. But if Sabah PH makes unrealistic demands, what do you expect oh? Hajiji bukan bodoh bah. If Sabah PH's demands are too much, then the only way is masing masing lah. GRS go solo lah. Pandikar, Yong and Jeffery will be happy. Sabah PKR chairman Datuk Mustapha Sakmud said certain areas may see friendly contests. But if there are too many friendly contests, then it defeats the purpose of a coalition. May as well go all out. The idea of 'Friendly Contests' first surfaced when Usno and Upko participated in the 1967 state election. And again during Berjaya in 1982. Both Berjaya and Usno were components of BN in 1980s. That was just before Usno was kicked out of BN for opposing the Labuan handover. Berjaya planted Independents in 4 MP areas where Usno represented BN. All 4 Berjaya-sponsored Independents won. New PKR deputy president Nurul Izzah Anwar mentioned that the party hoped to contest 13 seats in Sabah, presumably under coalition with GRS. Sabah DAP has said it intended to contest 10 including the 6 it won in 2020. That's already 23 total. PH members Upko and Amanah have not mentioned how may seats they intend to contest. So the total is expected to be more than 35 if not more. The magic number to form the Sabah Government is 37 to make a simple majority. GRS is not expected to contest less than 50 to be on the safe side. PGRS Vice Chairman Datuk Masiung Banah recently hinted that GRS might contest 52 seats, leaving PH with 21. From where he got the figures or whether he spoke for the party, I don't know. Will PH accept 21? Just the expectations of PKR and DAP is already 23. Where does that leave Upko? Never mind Amanah. This seat thing can be a headache and I don't want to be in Hajiji's shoes right now. He can't offend both GRS and PH. But trust me, Hajiji is an old hand in politics and more than capable in handling this. Each party, be it from GRS or PH, needs to give and take. If nobody wants to give in, free for all lah? Lastly, politics is dynamic. Any pre-election pact does not necessarily materialize after the election. This is politics. Enemies can become friends and vice-versa. The best example is prior to the 2022 MP election, BN or Umno's stand was 'No DAP, No Anwar'. But look what happened after the election? Umno president Ahmad Zahid supported Anwar to be PM just to frustrate Muhyiddin Yassin and PAS. And DAP is a PH component. It's Zahid swallowing his pride. As the Malay proverb says, 'Jangan ludah ke langit kerana dia akan jatuh ke muka awak'. Can history repeat itself in Sabah end of this year? Anything is possible. Politics is a number game. We will only know after the election. For example, Warisan and KDM with only a few seats each (no offence meant) can turn out to be the kingmakers after the election. Who they team up with, be it BN or PH or even GRS is another matter. Politics is the art of the possible. Sabah Umno chairman himself admitted that any coalition can only be finalised after the election, although it is unlikely that GRS would want to work with him. A good example is what happened in Sabah after the 2018 election. BN, short of two seats, managed to form the government with Star's two seats. Then suddenly Upko with its few assemblymen changed allegiance and supported Warisan. The rest is history. It is believed that Sabahans 'punished' Upko in 2020 when only one of its 12 candidates won. The president then was Wilfred Madius Tangau who also lost. After the 2020 election, each of the Warisan+ parties went their own way. Upko joined Anwar's PH and it turned out to be a wise decision. From just one MP (Tangau) previously, Upko won two in 2022, the other being Ewon Benedict who replaced Tangau as Upko president. Upko was given a new lease of life. Someone said it rose from the dead. It is believed that DAP's Ginger influenced new Upko president Ewon to join PH. The gamble paid off. One of the things that voters will be looking at in the forthcoming election will be the GRS+ government's performance past few years. Sabah has just been named 'Malaysia's Most Outstanding State for 2024' at the International Business Review (IBR) Asean Awards 2025. Need I say more? When PM Anwar was in town recently, he personally launched a multi-billion ringgit project. Need I say more? The Chinese and Koreans have poured in billions over the last few years in Sabah by way of investments. Need I say more? Of course there will be issues. If the Opposition don't bring up any issue, how are they going to win a single seat? Whatever the Government does will be wrong to the Opposition. That's why they are called Opposition. They can only see what the Government has not done. Not what the government has done. They cannot afford to give credit to the government. Sabah Maju Jaya. The views expressed here are the views of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of the Daily Express. If you have something to share, write to us at: [email protected]