Republican senators face uncomfortable vote on Trump's Canadian tariffs

CBC

01-04-2025

Senate Democrats are putting Republican support for some of Donald Trump's tariff plans to the test by forcing a vote to nullify the emergency declaration that underpins the levies on Canada.
Republicans have watched with some unease as the president's attempts to remake global trade have sent the stock market downward, but they have so far stood by Trump's on-again-off-again threats to levy taxes on imported goods.
Even as the resolution from Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia offered them a potential off-ramp to the tariffs levied on Canadian imports, Republican leaders were trying to keep senators in line by focusing on fentanyl that comes into the U.S. over its northern border.
"I really relish giving my Republican colleagues the chance to not just say they're concerned, but actually take an action to stop these tariffs," Kaine told The Associated Press in an interview last week.
Kaine's resolution — expected to go to a vote as early as Tuesday — challenges Trump's use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, also called IEEPA, to declare an emergency at the northern border in order to hit Canada with tariffs. The IEEPA includes a provision allowing any senator to force a vote to block emergency powers.
To be successful in the Senate, Kaine's measure would need the support of all 46 of his Democratic colleagues in the chamber, as well as four Republicans.
Kentucky Republican Rand Paul is a co-sponsor of Kaine's measure.
"I live in a state where we have three of the big automobile manufacturers. They're all opposed to the tariffs, and I think that it would hurt them," Paul told a U.S. radio show on Sunday. "The bourbon industry in Kentucky, they don't like the tariffs."
According to Politico.com, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson moved earlier this month to block the ability of tariff critics to force a floor vote in that chamber.
That means it is highly likely that Trump won't be prevented legislatively from pursuing his tariff agenda with Canada, but if Kaine's resolution succeeds, it would still be a symbolic rebuke to the president.
Several Republican senators represent states that share a land or water border with Canada, a list that includes Susan Collins of Maine, Pennsylvania's Dave McCormick, Steve Daines of Montana, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and both senators from Idaho and Ohio.
Fentanyl a 'smoke screen,' Kaine says
Kaine, in an op-ed in the Washington Post late last week, accused Trump of "using [a] fake emergency as a smoke screen to collect tariff revenue," citing public polling that the measure is unpopular with Americans, as well as a Yale University study indicating they could cost the average American family up to $2,000 more each year.
A small fraction of the fentanyl that comes into the U.S. enters from Canada, and more drugs flow in the opposite direction. Customs and Border Protection seized 43 pounds of fentanyl at the northern border during the 2024 fiscal year, and since January, authorities have seized less than 1.5 pounds, according to federal data. Meanwhile, at the southern U.S.-Mexico border, authorities seized over 21,000 pounds last year.
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Most Republicans in the Senate have signalled they aren't exactly fans of tariffs, but argued that Trump is using them as a negotiating tool.
"I am supportive of using tariffs in a way to accomplish a specific objective, in this case ending drug traffic," Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota told reporters last month. He said this week that his "advice remains the same."
While Trump's close allies in the Senate were standing steadfastly by the idea of remaking the U.S. economy through tariffs, others have begun openly voicing their dissatisfaction with trade wars that could disrupt industries and raise prices on autos, groceries, housing and other goods.
"I'm keeping a close eye on all these tariffs because oftentimes the first folks that are hurt in a trade war are your farmers and ranchers," said Daines.
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Sen. John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, said he would prefer to see the U.S. and its trading partners move to remove all tariffs on each other, and conceded that Trump's tariff threats had injected uncertainty into global markets.
"We're in uncharted waters," Kennedy told reporters. "Nobody knows what the impact of these tariffs is going to be."
Recession more likely: Goldman Sachs
Earlier this month, Trump hit Canada and Mexico with 25 per cent across-the-board duties, with a lower 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy — then partly paused the tariffs a few days later. Trump said at the time that the pause would last until April 2, which is Wednesday.
Trump has called Wednesday "Liberation Day" — the day when he intends to impose "reciprocal" tariffs by increasing U.S. duties to match the tax rates that other countries charge on imports. The measures will bring "tremendous wealth" back to the U.S., Trump said Monday.
But economists at Goldman Sachs have raised their forecast for inflation and lowered it for U.S. economic growth for the end of the year.
They now see a 35 per cent chance of a U.S. recession in the next year, up from an earlier forecast of 20 per cent, "reflecting our lower growth forecast, falling confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating willingness to tolerate economic pain," according to Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle.