ARMN vs. BTG: Which Gold Mining Stock is the Better Pick Now?

Yahoo

25-06-2025

Aris Mining Corporation ARMN and B2Gold Corp. BTG are international gold mining companies that have operations and projects in the Americas with growing portfolios in emerging markets. While Aris Mining is more concentrated in Colombia, B2Gold has an exposure to that South American country with its Gramalote project. Although gold prices have fallen from their April 2025 peak, they remain favorable, aided by geopolitical tensions, and are currently hovering above the $3,300 per ounce level. Against this backdrop, comparing these two gold producers is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the precious metals sector.Gold prices have rallied roughly 26% this year, largely attributable to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump that have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump's policies. Prices of the yellow metal catapulted to a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22. Increased purchases by central banks and geopolitical tensions are factors expected to help the yellow metal sustain the rally. Let's dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two gold miners to determine which one is a better investment now.
Aris Mining is rapidly establishing itself as a formidable player in the Latin American gold mining sector. Since its inception in September 2022, the company has demonstrated a strong blend of operational efficiency and strategic expansion. Aris Mining logged a notable 8% year-over-year increase in gold production for the first quarter, underscoring its operational momentum. It positions ARMN favorably for achieving its full-year production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces. The Segovia Operations in Colombia, a cornerstone of Aris Mining's portfolio, is a key contributor to the company's production upside. ARMN is advancing its expansion projects, including the Segovia mill expansion and the development of the Marmato Lower Mine, which are expected to further drive its production. Production rates are expected to crank up in the second half of 2025, following the commissioning of the Segovia plant expansion to 3,000 tons per day, with ARMN targeting an annual production rate of roughly 500,000 ounces of gold. At the Marmato Lower Mine, construction is progressing, targeting a processing capacity of 5,000 tons per day, with the ramp-up scheduled to start in the back half of 2026. Aris Mining also holds a 51% stake in the Soto Norte project in Colombia and fully owns the Toroparu project in Guyana, further diversifying its asset portfolio. A pre-feasibility study is underway at Soto Norte with an expected completion in the third quarter of 2025. At Toroparu, the company has launched a new study to update the development plan. As ARMN progresses with its expansion initiatives, it is well-placed to achieve its ambitious production targets and strengthen its standing in the Latin American gold mining industry.Aris Mining boasts a strong balance sheet and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects. The company ended the first quarter with a healthy cash balance of $240 million. ARMN also successfully obtained more than $19.4 million from the exercise of in-the-money warrants, bolstering its balance sheet for future investments and supporting Segovia and Marmato expansions. In the first quarter, the company generated $40 million in cash flow after accounting for sustaining capital and income taxes, allowing it to fund most of its strategic growth and expansion initiatives. ARMN does not currently pay a dividend.However, the company's rising costs play spoilsport. It reported an increase in its first-quarter all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) per ounce, a key indicator of cost efficiency in mining. The Segovia Operations reported AISC of $1,570 per ounce, up from $1,485 per ounce in the prior quarter and $1,434 per ounce in the year-ago quarter, indicating a deterioration of cost efficiency. Consolidated AISC increased around 6% year over year to $1,667 per ounce.
B2Gold is poised to benefit from its ongoing strategy of maximizing profitable mine production, moving forward with its remaining development and exploration projects, and evaluating additional exploration, development and production prospects.The company completed the 2024 Winter Ice Road ('WIR') campaign in the second quarter of 2024 and has delivered all necessary items that will enable the completion of construction of the Goose Project in the second quarter of 2025. The Goose Project is on track to pour first gold in the second quarter of 2025, reach commercial production in the third quarter and contribute 120,000-150,000 ounces of gold in 2025. B2Gold expects gold production from the project to be around 310,000 ounces per year for the first six years of operation. A feasibility study on the 100% owned Gramalote Project in Colombia is also targeted for completion in mid-2025. Gramalote has a significant production profile with average annual gold production of 234,000 ounces for the first five years over a 12.5-year project life.BTG remains on track to meet total gold production expectations of 970,000-1,075,000 ounces for 2025. The company's production in 2024 was 804,778 ounces (including 19,644 attributable ounces from Calibre Mining Corp.). For the Fekola Complex, the company expects a significant year-over-year increase in gold production in 2025 due to the addition of higher-grade ore from Fekola underground and Fekola Regional in the second half of 2025.The company also has a strong financial position and liquidity with cash and cash equivalents of $330 million at the end of the first quarter of 2025. It had $800 million remaining available for future drawdowns under its revolving credit facility. Its long-term debt-to-capitalization is around 11.4%, lower than ARMN's 30.5%. BTG also offers a dividend yield of 2.2% at the current stock price. It has a payout ratio of 44%, with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 1.8%. BTG, however, remains hamstrung by cost inflation. It reported a roughly 14% year-over-year increase in the consolidated AISC of $1,533 per ounce in the first quarter. B2Gold is witnessing cost inflation pressure across all sites, which is impacting input prices, including reagents, fuel and consumables. Higher costs are anticipated to weigh on the company's near-term margins.
Year to date, Aris Mining stock has gained 89.1%, while B2Gold stock has rallied 45.9% compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 56.6%.
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Aris Mining is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 4.44. This represents a roughly 67.2% discount when stacked up with the industry average of 13.52X.
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B2Gold is trading at a premium to Aris Mining. The BTG stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 7.15, below the industry.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARMN's 2025 sales and EPS implies a year-over-year rise of 55.7% and 226.5%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending higher over the past 60 days.
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The consensus estimate for BTG's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 56.2% and 231.3%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 have been trending northward over the past 60 days.
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(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)
Both ARMN and BTG currently have a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), so picking one stock is not easy. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.Both Aris Mining and B2Gold are well-positioned to leverage the current favorable gold price environment. Both remain focused on executing development projects, have solid financial health and strong earnings growth prospects, and are seeing favorable estimate revisions. On the flip side, both are facing headwinds from higher costs. BTG's healthy dividend yield and higher earnings growth projections suggest that it may offer better investment prospects in the current market environment. BTG's lower leverage also suggests lower financial risks. Investors seeking exposure to the gold space might consider B2Gold as the more favorable option at this time.
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