Good news for back-to-school shoppers: Tariffs haven't hit prices — yet

Boston Globe

3 days ago

Casey Wilkinson, an assistant principal at the Davis School in Brockton, has bought most of her son's school supplies online, and like Hall, she's got no complaints about tariffs.
'As of right now,' Wilkinson said, 'I haven't seen any sign of a dramatic increase in prices.'
With back-to-school shopping in full swing, there's little evidence that the Trump administration's tariff campaign is weighing heavily on consumers.
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Retail data indicates that prices are rising, but so far only modestly. And there's no sign of the shortages that many economists feared back when President Trump threatened tariffs of up to 145 percent on imports from China.
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On the contrary, Jon B. Hurst, president of the Retailers Association of Massachusetts, said his member retailers have plenty of everything, and not just for returning scholars. Hurst said that local stores have already laid in a lot of merchandise for the Christmas season as well. 'They're all set for back-to-school and most of them are all set for the holidays,' he said.
Boston families are hardcore about back-to-school shopping.
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But tariffs aren't pushing this number much higher, because wholesale prices for imports have not spiked. 'There's been some assumptions that suppliers and distributors would build in some price increases in anticipation, but that really hasn't been seen yet,' he said. 'They're really taking the risk upon themselves.'
One reason for the good news: Trump's retreat from his April 2 'Liberation Day' plan, which would have imposed massive tariff increases on nearly every country in the world. Global markets plummeted after the plan was announced, and containers full of merchandise piled up at foreign ports, raising fears of empty shelves in US retail stores.
Trump announced a few days later that he would put the most severe tariff increases on hold, though he still raised tariffs worldwide by 10 percent and for most Chinese products by 30 percent.
Prior to the Liberation Day pause, US importers had slashed their orders, due to uncertainty about tariff costs, said Michael Goldman, general manager for North America at
'When that suspension was announced, everybody got off the sidelines,' said Goldman. Container ships stuffed with imports flocked to US ports, looking to land their cargoes before Trump changed his mind again. 'Whether it was on purpose or not,' said Goldman, the tariff pause 'allowed the supply chains to have moments to normalize themselves.'
As a result, he said, 'I am not seeing any data that suggests there's going to be any big issue with supply.'
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Still, the tariffs on these goods were substantially higher than before, and somebody's got to pay. But so far, consumers seem to be getting off easy.
The Globe used data from
For example, a student backpack that sold for $23.65 in July of 2024 was priced at $27.97 this year. Notebook paper that cost $5.99 last year was priced at $6.99 last week. An HP desktop computer monitor that cost $80 last year had increased in price to $107, and a West Bend dormitory-style mini-fridge that cost $150 last year had risen to $175.
There were a few price drops as well. A Crayola art kit decreased from $18.29 last year to $16.55, and a pair of New Balance children's shoes declined from $49.95 to $29.95.
This is a very small sample, and there's no way to link these price changes to the tariffs. But data from the Harvard Business School show that tariffs are nudging up the prices for many consumer goods.
The HBS Pricing Lab's
The researchers found that prices for imported products increased almost immediately whenever the Trump administration announced higher tariffs, like the worldwide 10 percent tariff imposed in April.
Prices of domestic goods also rose along with the tariffs, though by a smaller amount. The Harvard researchers said many US manufacturers must themselves pay tariffs for imported equipment and supplies they can't get domestically. In turn, these companies pass their tariff costs to consumers.
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But while retailers have been quick to raise prices, they're not raising them by much. The Tariff Tracker found that price increases for imports have averaged about 3 percent, much lower than the tariff increases.
'Tariffs are often expected to produce a one-time jump in price levels, but our data show that firms rarely pass through the full cost immediately,' said Harvard Business School professor Alberto Cavallo. 'Instead, they raise prices gradually, especially when there is uncertainty around how long the tariffs will last or how broad they will be.'
But how long can this go on? Cavallo thinks that more of the tariff cost will gradually trickle down to consumers. 'We expect the passthrough to continue unfolding over time, keeping inflation elevated in certain categories for many months,' he said.
But Hurst thinks bigger price hikes are months away.
'We're talking about 2026,' he said. 'If they go up, to the extent that they do, that's when we'll feel it.'
Hiawatha Bray can be reached at