Historic opportunity to transform Lebanon is being squandered
A few days before US Special Envoy Tom Barrack's visit to Lebanon on Monday, Hezbollah organized mass demonstrations in Beirut's southern suburbs, giving its answer to the American request for the group's disarmament. Hezbollah stated clearly: it will not disarm. Thousands of its members took to the streets chanting slogans such as 'the resistance will not kneel,' 'no to American dictates,' and 'weapons protect the homeland.' This show of force diverges from the written answer given to Barrack by President Joseph Aoun, which the former described as 'something spectacular,' adding he was 'unbelievably satisfied' with it.
While the content of the letter has not been shared, it clearly contradicts Hezbollah's message of sending its people to the streets and rejecting the US-backed plan calling for a phased disarmament. Moreover, in a televised speech, Secretary-General Naim Qassem reaffirmed that Hezbollah would not consider laying down its arms for now. This represents a clear departure from the negotiated path that Aoun stated he was aiming for, as well as the US requests.
Let us call it what it is: Hezbollah can only send messages of threat to the Lebanese and no one else. It was soundly defeated by the Israelis. Moreover, its own master was also delivered a severe military blow while it stood silent. And so, these weapons are worthless in terms of national defense and they are not a form of resistance but of oppression.
I agree (though not for the same reasons) with Hezbollah that its arsenal should not be subject to negotiations, because it should be surrendered immediately, without any preconditions or a political solution. These weapons are nothing but a threat to other Lebanese and the sovereignty of the country. These weapons are the cause of the destruction, as much so as the dangerous ideology pushed by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah's weapons are worthless in terms of national defense and they are not a form of resistance but of oppression
Khaled Abou Zahr
What comes next? Hezbollah will probably execute 'loosely' on the Israeli requests for disarmament, particularly regarding its presence south of the Litani River. And so, the exit formula will be another version of what was witnessed between Iran and Israel following their 12-day war: a formula that gives enough butter to Hezbollah's leaders to spread on their bread and to shift their speech into a symbolic victory to market to their crowd. Do the group's members still believe this? Even after the severe hits it has taken. The reality is that Israel is the only victor here and a historic opportunity for the Lebanese government to transform the country is being lost.
Unfortunately, the Lebanese state will not be able to push forward with a full disarmament. It has surrendered to Hezbollah's will, like all its predecessors. Moreover, the US will not act with increased pressure, nor will it propose a timeline. It is up to the Lebanese to take care of themselves. This was very clear from Barrack's statement: great words for and about the Lebanese people, including Hezbollah, which he qualified as a political force that Israel must accept. Nothing solid delivered or to deliver. And it is better this way. Let the Lebanese handle it.
There is, hence, a total acceptance of Hezbollah's status within the Lebanese state. The direct threat to Israel has been eliminated and the rest now seems irrelevant. The Lebanese leadership has submitted to the will of Hezbollah and Lebanon will continue to drift in chaos. Barrack said as much to the Lebanese, just dipped in a honeyed speech of greatness: 'Good luck with that, you can do it' was the message.
The total collapse of the Lebanese file has a different tone this time, and I do not think the Lebanese even care anymore
Khaled Abou Zahr
The total collapse of the Lebanese file has a different tone this time, and I do not think the Lebanese even care anymore. Life under occupation and amid geopolitical shifts has taken its toll. Aside from a small minority, the Lebanese have accepted this situation and will live with it.
Just like the Iranian nuclear program, no one knows when Hezbollah will rise from the ashes and push for another round of fighting. Even if one thing is sure: it has been hurt badly and will think more than in the past before any new provocation. It is also a certainty that there will be another round. Sooner or later. And its outcome will not differ from the previous rounds: destruction for Lebanon.
The biggest threat to Lebanon regarding Hezbollah's disarmament is that its continued provocations may force a response from Damascus. The group is inviting renewed foreign interference that will further undermine Lebanese sovereignty. This is the biggest difference in our current environment. The US does not need to threaten; it can leave it to the new leadership in Syria to deal with this if things get out of hand. This solution will not bring stability to Lebanon, as we can all imagine. It will perpetuate the never-ending cycle of interference.
Taking the transformation in Syria and Barrack's speech into account, Hezbollah should act fast and smart: deliver its arsenal to the Lebanese state, free its community and free Lebanon from this regional entanglement. The odds of this happening are slim to none. Yet the risk of other groups resorting to weapons to protect themselves against Hezbollah's domestic show of force is increasing by the day. Geopolitical situational awareness is needed by all.
In this current scenario, where the centralized government is not able to reassert full sovereignty over the country, the decline will certainly continue. How can we not see that federalism is the best solution? It will give each group local autonomy while preserving national unity. This is a final chance before the total dissolution of the country.
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