Texas flood forecasts were accurate. It wasn't enough to save lives.

Politico

07-07-2025

These roles often serve as liaisons between NWS meteorologists and local authorities or emergency managers. Warning coordination meteorologists, in particular, help translate forecasts into usable action plans that can aid the local authorities who make decisions and evacuate communities as severe weather systems approach.
It's unclear whether those vacancies have affected coordination with local authorities. Top meteorologists at NWS San Angelo and NWS Austin/San Antonio did not immediately respond to questions about whether the openings posed any challenges during the floods.
But Tom Fahy, legislative director at the union that represents NWS employees, said in an interview that vacancies at the Texas offices did not cause any problems during the floods.
The offices called 'all hands on deck' to ensure that they were fully staffed during the emergency, he said, adding that 'they knew this was a critical life and death situation — bodies and lives were on the line in this one.'
NOAA spokesperson Erica Grow Cei provided a timeline of NWS warnings between Thursday and Friday, confirming that the first flood watch went out at 1:18 p.m. local time Thursday and the first flash flood warning was issued at 11:41 p.m. for Bandera County. Another flash flood warning — tagged 'considerable' to indicate a threat of major damage — was issued at 1:14 a.m. for Bandera and Kerr counties, triggering wireless emergency alerts on enabled devices and warnings on NOAA Weather Radio.
'National Weather Service is heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County,' Cei said in an emailed statement, adding that the agency 'remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services.'
Still, cellphone and radio alerts aren't always enough to prevent loss of life during disasters. They can't help people who disable their alerts, don't have cellphone service or don't have radios.
Late-night and early-morning warnings can be an even greater challenge to distribute, when much of the public is asleep. Friday's floods occurred in the early hours of the morning, with the most urgent warnings issued after 1 a.m.
'The crux of this disaster is a failure of the last mile of communication,' Fahy said. 'The forecasts went out, they communicated the forecasts, they disseminated the watches and warnings. And the dilemma we have is there was nobody listening at 4 o'clock in the morning for these watches and warnings.'
Most people who died in Friday's floods were located in Kerr County, which does not have a warning system, according to Kelly, the Kerry County judge, at a Friday news conference. Other cities in central Texas, like San Marcos, deploy outdoor weather sirens to warn of extreme weather events like floods and tornadoes, as local news reports have pointed out.
In an interview with The New York Times, Kelly suggested that warning systems are expensive and 'taxpayers won't pay for it.'