Five reasons Australia could still beat Lions and win series

Telegraph

20-07-2025

Although ifs and buts are futile in the unforgiving world of Test rugby union, Australia must cling to the hope of rebounding next weekend at the Melbourne Cricket Ground to force a decider.
Harry Wilson, the Wallabies captain, seemed disconsolate after his team's 27-19 loss at Suncorp Stadium in the series opener. Joe Schmidt has to frame a disappointing defeat with optimism.
Yes, the British and Irish Lions have a great deal of room to improve themselves and were undeniably superior. Yet Australia were still within eight points at the end. Had they landed one of two conversions they missed, there might have been much more tension in the final moments.
Games with so much at stake invariably feature contentious turning points. While Joseph Suaalii 's try was correctly chalked off, for instance, Wallabies supporters may feel Ben Earl was lucky to escape a yellow card during that same attack on the hour-mark. With the Lions on a final warning, the back-rower appeared to fold underneath Suaalii in the shadow of his own posts.
Australia were trailing 24-5 at the time and would still have needed an extraordinary turnaround. As they regroup for the second Test, they have to believe an upset is possible. Emulating 2001 with a 2-1 triumph may seem a long way off, so it is essential for them to dwell upon reasons for positivity.
Reinforcements on the way
Power was a major issue for Australia in the first half and their side will be more imposing if Rob Valetini and Will Skelton are able to feature in the second Test. Being without those two as well as Langi Gleeson proved to be predictably debilitating for the Wallabies.
A pack containing Skelton would simply not have been man-handled at a driving maul as Australia were when they went for a pushover in the second period:
Australia had used a front peel move minutes previously, but Nick Champion de Crespigny was wrapped up by Tadhg Beirne and Dan Sheehan and conceded a turnover.
While the selection of James Slipper to start paid off in the scrummaging exchanges, it is difficult to envisage Angus Bell being upended as spectacularly as the veteran loosehead was in the opening seconds. Tom Curry and Sheehan whack Slipper in a tone-setting tackle…
…and Beirne swoops in on the following phase to earn the penalty that put the Lions 3-0 ahead. For all of Slipper's nous, Schmidt may be better served with Bell playing 50 minutes rather than 30.
There is scope for the Wallabies boss to change up other positions. Tate McDermott, the scampering scrum-half, scored a try from the bench and is a highly effective sniper around heavier runners. There is another stick-or-twist toss-up at fly-half regarding Tom Lynagh. The 22-year-old endured a tough outing and Ben Donaldson could come in to wear 10.
As ever, the physical battle between the forwards will be paramount and it would represent a significant swing if the Lions lose Joe McCarthy as the Wallabies reintegrate Valentini and Skelton.
Scrummaging promise
In the end, the scrum was an annoying inconvenience rather than anything more damaging for the Lions. But they did concede two penalties and a free-kick in all. Australia had the ascendancy, which may have been surprising for many onlookers.
The officials were evidently happy with the work of Wallabies tighthead Allan Alaalatoa, who worked infringements out of Ellis Genge and Andrew Porter.
Porter is pinged here on the Lions put-in, with Ben O'Keeffe believing him to have collapsed under pressure:
Mike Cron, Australia's vastly experienced scrum coach, will be pleased with proceedings overall. Nick Frost's steal on the final play was emblematic of a disruptive final quarter at the line-out as well.
More to come from Suaalii
One of the disheartening aspects of Australia's performance was their inability to hurt the Lions with any strike moves. Indeed, one backfired horribly as Curry picked off a throw from Matt Faessler that had sailed over the top of the line-out towards midfield. Sheehan scored from the ensuing attack.
The peripheral nature of Joseph Suaalii's display was another curious and frustrating factor for the Wallabies. Led by Curry and Beirne, the Lions stifled their opponents and caused Australia's attack to look confused and rudderless at times.
Even so, Suaalii could have been more prominent. Dinking shallow restarts for him to chase felt like an easy win for the Wallabies, yet they did not turn to this strategy until they were 10-0 behind. Here is the map of Australia's restarts:
Despite the Lions' wobbles during the tour matches, Australia's first two restarts were hit long and caught under no pressure. It took until their third for Suaalii to be able to jump against a lifting pod:
When it did happen, even if Australia did not regather one all evening, the tactic caused problems.
This chip from Lynagh, mopped up well by the Lions, was another attempt to bring in Suaalii. The idea is right, yet let down by poor execution and a kick that travels slightly too long:
Schmidt will hope that Australia will be slicker, and more able to unleash an exceptional athlete, after 80 more minutes together. Max Jorgensen, a slippery runner, threatened the Lions despite limited opportunities.
Should the Wallabies generate more momentum and quick rucks at the MCG, Suaalii and full-back Tom Wright should be able to trouble the Lions defence.
Wilson as a focal point
To their credit, Australia were admirably defiant and asserted themselves in the physical exchanges during a second half in which they scored 14 points to the Lions' tally of 10.
Carlo Tizzano shunted over for a close-range try and Wilson, who had been well contained earlier, began to eke out metres. Here, the latter forces himself past Maro Itoje and Beirne before lifting an offload to Nick Frost:
A couple of minutes later, Wilson picks from the base of a ruck and slips through the fringe defence. Only some quick thinking from James Lowe prevents a try:
Wilson, a skilful kicker, almost created a try for Harry Potter with this cute grubber…
…and will be more influential if others can help him share the carrying load.
Breakdown disruption
Uncertainty from the Lions' back three gave Australia some bright moments in the kicking exchanges, such as Jorgensen's leap to beat Hugo Keenan and score.
On the floor, even if Australia's attacking breakdown work could have been tidier amid the jackalling of Beirne, Fraser McReight underlined his reputation as an outstanding scavenger. Here, he follows Len Ikitau into a ruck and emerges with the ball:
The position on the field of the turnover above is important to highlight. Ben O'Keeffe allowed a contest at the ruck and, on the whole, the Wallabies targeted wide breakdowns, where the Lions have looked vulnerable all tour.
On a few occasions, they timed a barge for when Jamison Gibson-Park was reaching into messy breakdowns. Schmidt is a stickler for such details.
Andrea Piardi is the man in the middle for Melbourne. If McReight can stay on the right side of the Italian referee, he can drag the Lions into another dogfight.
A comeback victory would be an extraordinary feat for the Wallabies after defeat in Brisbane, but there are crumbs of comfort to clutch. Next weekend is do-or-die territory. They must deliver.