Russia is unleashing aerial terror against Ukrainian civilians to make it seem like it is winning, experts say
CNN —
Third-grader Stanislav Martynyuk looks extremely proud in his school photograph. Hands folded on his desk; his eyes framed with spectacles that make him look like a serious – and adorable – 8-year-old scholar.
It was this image of Stanislav – alongside similar snaps of his sister Tamara, 12, and brother Roman, 17 – that was put on display at a makeshift memorial at their school in Korostyshiv and shared on social media after the three siblings died when a Russian strike hit their home over the weekend.
The trio was among at least 14 civilians killed over the weekend in the latest wave of Moscow's escalating aerial assaults against Ukrainian cities.
Analysts say the brutal campaign is part of a deliberate strategy by Russia that is designed to create an impression that it has the upper hand in the conflict, undermine Ukraine's morale and put more pressure on Kyiv's Western allies.
Russia first began intensifying airborne attacks against Ukraine last fall, after it successfully scaled up domestic production of its own version of the Iranian-made Shahed drones, its most frequently used drone.
But the frequency and scale of these strikes increased again in January, after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Five of Russia's biggest drone attacks were all launched since then. Four of the five came over the past 10 days, according to a tally compiled by CNN.
Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine one of his priorities – having said during the election campaign that he would bring the conflict to an end within 24 hours of taking office.
Photos shared by the Gustav Olizar Lyceum in Korostyshiv show Stanislav, Tamara and Roman Martynyuk, three siblings killed by a Russian strike.
Gustav Olizar Lyceum in Korostyshiv
But despite the promises, Trump seems to have grown increasingly impatient with Moscow and Kyiv. He has been flip-flopping between threatening to punish Russia with more sanctions if it doesn't sign up to a ceasefire proposal and suggesting he could walk away from the issue altogether.
Over the weekend, after Russia launched its biggest aerial assault against Ukraine since the start of the war, Trump said on social media that Putin 'has gone absolutely CRAZY!' before telling reporters that he was 'not happy with what Putin is doing.'
But Trump also slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for suggesting that 'America's silence' encourages Putin to continue his onslaught. He said Zelensky does his country disservice because 'everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don't like it, and it better stop.'
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that should Ukraine 'misbehave' in fighting against Russia with drones, it will 'get hurt.'
No matter if peace negotiations are underway, or 'if President Trump says something or not, Russia will ensure its security,' Peskov said.
The only way to win
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor, said that Russia's brutal aerial campaign is part of the strategy to create the illusion that it is winning the war, in an 'effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and convince the West that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and that supporting Ukraine is futile.'
Putin knows that the only way Russia could win the war in Ukraine any time soon is if Ukraine's Western allies, the United States chief among them, stop supporting Kyiv in its war efforts.
Ukraine's European allies have seen an increase in instances of sabotage, cyber incidents and arson attacks linked to Russia, an attempt by Moscow to put more pressure on Kyiv-friendly governments by trying to show their voters that supporting Kyiv comes with a cost.
At the same time, Putin is successfully stalling the ceasefire talks proposed by Trump – while trying to appear cooperative and shift the blame on Kyiv.
Instead of refusing Trump's ceasefire proposal straight away, the Russian president has been introducing new demands and blaming Kyiv for not accepting them.
When given an ultimatum, Putin ignored it and called for direct talks between Ukraine and Russia – something Trump immediately endorsed, blindsiding Ukraine's other Western allies.
Trump has repeatedly indicated he does not want US military assistance to Kyiv to continue as it was. Earlier this year, the US briefly suspended shipments of aid to Ukraine over Trump's disagreement with Zelensky. While the aid has been reinstated, the incident gave a clear indication to Putin that Trump is willing to abandon Ukraine.
Trump has also made it clear he believed Ukraine is on the backfoot. He even told Zelensky he had 'no cards' during the contentious Oval Office meeting in February, trying to pressure the Ukrainian leader into negotiations.
But while Russia does have air superiority over Ukraine, which allows Moscow to terrorize the Ukrainian population on daily basis, it is far from 'winning' the war.
Leading Russia analyst Mark Galeotti previously told CNN that the situation on the ground in Ukraine is better described as both sides losing. 'The thing though is that the Ukrainians are losing faster,' he said.
When Russia launched its full-scale unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin expected to take over the country within a few days.
That has not happened because Ukraine mounted a surprisingly strong defense. And as Western support for Kyiv increased, Ukraine was able to push back and reclaim large swaths of territory that were seized by Russia during the initial invasion.
The frontline in Ukraine has not moved in a significant way since Ukrainian forces liberated the southern city of Kherson in November 2023. Russia has advanced in some areas along the frontline, but it has not been able to break through or take over a major city.
An explosion lights up the sky over Kyiv during a Russian drone strike on Saturday.
Gleb Garanich/Reuters
Yet the consequences of the Russian strikes have been horrifying. At least 209 civilians were killed across Ukraine last month, the deadliest month since September 2024, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.
It was a particularly deadly month for Ukrainian children – the worst since June 2022. On top of 19 who were killed, 78 were injured.
May has been equally terrifying for Ukrainian civilians. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said on Telegram that the weekend's attacks showed once again that Russia's goal is 'fear and death.'
Klymenko said the parents of the three slain Martynyuk children were wounded in the strike, their mother seriously.
Roman, the oldest child, was just days away from graduating, the school where all three attended said in a statement.
Tamara's teacher, Oleh Hodovaniuk, told CNN Monday was a very difficult day for the school.
Signs of the war were all around them. The school windows have been blown out by the pressure wave from the explosions. A memorial point at the school's entrance was flooded with flowers and plush toys.
Hodovaniuk said the news shocked the community to its core and some children were so distraught they were unable to come to school and take part in the memorial.
'No one coordinated this, but most of the school came wearing black,' he said. 'Tamara was very well behaved and modest, like all the children in her family.'
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