With Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers risk doing exactly what they said they wouldn't

New York Times

a day ago

For years, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been stuck in football purgatory, good enough to keep coach Mike Tomlin's non-losing season streak alive but not great enough to snap a now eight-year postseason winless drought.
In early January, after a 10-3 season unraveled with a five-game collapse and first-round flameout in the playoffs, Tomlin stepped in front of a lectern for his end-of-season news conference and promised change.
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'I have a cliche that the guys oftentimes throw back to me in jest, but it's true: 'Two is a pattern,'' Tomlin said. 'I say that because there's an expiration on adjusting, adapting. So, I use that phrase to reflect urgency, to reflect how quickly it is that we need to adapt and adjust and move.
'We have had similar results,' Tomlin continued. 'Rest assured that we're not doing the same things hoping for a different result.'
The Steelers appeared to be making that change ahead of free agency, when general manager Omar Khan pulled off a blockbuster trade for former Seattle Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf.
The big splash for a star receiver represented a philosophical shift in several ways. An organization that has long believed in its draft-and-develop approach instantly upgraded at a critical position with a proven veteran. By handing Metcalf a five-year, $150 million extension, the Steelers made him by far the highest-paid external acquisition in team history. Simultaneously, a franchise that has led the league in defensive spending the past three seasons began to redistribute some of its payroll to the offensive side of the ball.
Perhaps things really were changing in Pittsburgh. Or maybe not.
On Thursday, 85 days after he was released by the Jets, four-time NFL MVP and one-time Super Bowl champion Aaron Rodgers decided to join the Steelers on a one-year deal, league sources told The Athletic's Dianna Russini.
Yes, Rodgers is a different quarterback. But the Steelers have been here before, relying on an aging, past-his-prime veteran and expecting the NFL's highest-paid defense to prop him up. They tried that model last season with a 36-year-old Russell Wilson, and before that with a late-30s Ben Roethlisberger. In both instances, the results were a mix of flashes and fool's gold.
Is adding Rodgers doing the same thing and expecting a different result?
The Steelers chose this course for the first time in 2019, after a 37-year-old Roethlisberger tore multiple ligaments in his throwing elbow. The quarterback had already flirted with retirement several times. The upcoming 2020 draft class was stocked with quarterbacks, including Joe Burrow (who would go first to the Bengals), Tua Tagovailoa (fifth, Dolphins), Justin Herbert (sixth, Chargers), Jordan Love (26th, Packers) and Jalen Hurts (53rd, Eagles). However, instead of preparing for life without their aging and injured Hall of Fame quarterback, the Steelers traded their first-round pick for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, redoubling their efforts to win with a defense-first approach.
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When Roethlisberger returned in 2020, everyone knew he wasn't the same. But the Steelers convinced themselves he wouldn't need to be, with a now-complete defense supporting him. If T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Fitzpatrick could nearly lift Duck Hodges to the playoffs, what could they do with Big Ben?
It was fool's gold.
For a while, it worked, as the Steelers started 11-0 in 2020. Then came the 1-4 collapse and the first-round playoff loss to the Browns. After a 9-7-1 season in 2021, which ended with a blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs, Roethlisberger finally retired.
After two years of Kenny Pickett, the Steelers reverted to the veteran route when they signed Wilson to a one-year, $1.2 million deal last spring. Even though the Broncos were paying Wilson to go away, and the QB wasn't near his prime, the Steelers again told themselves he wouldn't need to be his Pro-Bowl best with the NFL's highest-paid defense supporting him.
What happened? Very much like the Steelers in 2020, Wilson came out of the gate strong to win six of his first seven starts, breathing hope and optimism into the franchise. But just like Roethlisberger, Wilson hit a wall at the end of the year, and the tailspin began. Sacks became problematic. Teams started game planning to take away the moonball, and the entire offense ground to a halt.
This is the problem with aging quarterbacks. It's not as if the Monstars from 'Space Jam' sneak into their houses while they're sleeping and steal their powers overnight. Instead, it's much more subtle, deceiving to the eye and the emotions. Often, the flashes of brilliance are still there in doses, reminders of what once was. But nostalgia is a dangerous drug. These moments, as intoxicating as they can be, are almost always misleading. Especially as seasons wear on, those thrilling flashes become fewer and farther between.
By choosing Rodgers, the Steelers are taking the same gamble for a third time.
They'll do so with a more successful but much older quarterback. Yes, Rodgers was better than both of his Pittsburgh predecessors in his prime. In a career that's spanned two decades, he ranks first all-time in passer rating (102.6), fifth in passing touchdowns (503) and seventh in passing yards (62,952).
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Maybe his tenure in Pittsburgh will work out for him the way it did for two of the QBs with more career passing touchdowns, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Manning used his brain to work around physical limitations and, with the help of a historic defense, hoisted the Lombardi Trophy at 39. And Brady, who beat back Father Time better than anyone else, won the Super Bowl with Tampa Bay at age 43.
But the risks are impossible to ignore. Sure, Rodgers was a perennial MVP candidate who could lift his team into Super Bowl contention. He will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. But think about things in the present tense: What is he right now, as a 41-year-old just 20 months removed from a torn Achilles?
The Jets found out last year, as they failed to score a touchdown in two whole games, including one with Rodgers' preferred target, Davante Adams. At his best, Rodgers used his mobility to extend plays and create outside of structure. He was a magician. But age and injury have largely robbed him of his superpower. He was the NFL's worst QB against the blitz (min. 300 pass attempts) in 2024, with a minus-0.20 EPA per dropback against five or more rushers.
At times last season, Rodgers also appeared reluctant to take shots downfield, instead favoring a precision passing game. That wouldn't seem to mesh with the Steelers' current roster construction, which features Metcalf — an explosive deep threat but not the precise route runner Rodgers typically prefers — and few other proven receivers after the trade of George Pickens. Rodgers' raw 2024 stats — 3,897 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions — were inflated by his 584 attempts (second-most in the NFL, which wouldn't seem to fit with a run-first offense), many coming in garbage time.
Rodgers reportedly played through hamstring, knee and ankle injuries last season, hampering his play. Could he be better if he's healthy for a full season? Sure. But what are the odds he'll make it through a season unscathed, given he turns 42 in December?
The most optimistic way to view this situation is that Rodgers improved at the end of the 2024 season, when he was further removed from his 2023 Achilles tear and nagging 2024 injuries. The hope would be that in a more stable environment, with the NFL's highest-paid defense, a remade offensive line and a commitment to running the ball, Rodgers will be more effective than he was in New York.
But, again, that's the same thing the Steelers said about Roethlisberger and Wilson. If two is a pattern, what will the third gamble become?