Chaos, Dynasties, Nittany Lions: What We Learned From College Football 26 Simulations

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College Football Chaos, Dynasties, Nittany Lions: What We Learned From College Football 26 Simulations
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Aug. 20, 2025 12:28 p.m. ET
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What happens when you simulate 50 seasons in EA Sports' "College Football 26" video game? Chaos, dynasties, heartbreak — and a few unexpected powerhouses.
Thanks to the video game's "Dynasty Mode" feature, we tracked Heisman winners, conference champions, College Football Playoff contenders and who will win the national championship in Miami on Jan. 19.
While Ohio State finished the 2024 season on top of the college football world, the Buckeyes won't rule the sport once again this season, according to our 50 dynasty simulations. The reigning national champions failed to win the national championship once in our simulations. Moreover, the Buckeyes only played in two national championship games, losing to a school more well-known for its basketball prowess in one of them. Ohio State only made the College Football Playoff on 16 occasions in the 50 simulations.
In order to get as many realistic, undiluted results as possible, we used default settings and chose lower-tier teams from Group of 5 conferences to "play" as in each dynasty file. We did not recruit or play any games, but rather skipped ahead to the end of the regular season in order to find the Heisman Trophy winner, conference champions and CFP field. We then skipped ahead to the end of the CFP to find the national champion. Our hope was to get some definitive expectations and predictions for the upcoming season, while also figuring out who could cause the most chaos in 2025.
Our very first simulation might have been our most chaotic. Duke ran the table in the ACC, going 12-0 before losing to Pitt in the conference title game. However, the Panthers didn't make the CFP because they weren't one of the five-highest-ranked conference champions. That loss also didn't derail Duke from making a deep CFP run, reaching the semifinals. Duke lost to Texas Tech in that game, with the Red Raiders taking down USC in the national championship game. Oh, and SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings won the Heisman in that simulation — he currently has the 19th-best odds to win the award (+5000, via DraftKings Sportsbook).
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Chaos, indeed!
So, let's dig deeper and unveil what we learned from our simulations.
National champions
There's a three-way tie atop the leaderboard for the team that won the most national championships over the course of our 50 simulations. Clemson, Georgia and Penn State each won it all eight times.
Those three schools having success in the game shouldn't be too surprising. All three were recently ranked in the top five of the preseason AP Top 25 poll, with Penn State coming in at No. 2, Clemson at No. 4 and Georgia at No. 5. In fact, FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt ranked the Nittany Lions No. 1 in his preseason poll, saying they have the blueprint of the last two national champions. FOX Sports' RJ Young, meanwhile, had all three schools ranked in the top seven of his Ultimate 136 Rankings.
For Georgia, two of its national championship wins might have felt a bit more cathartic. The Bulldogs defeated Miami (Fla.) and former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck in two of those eight national championship victories.
Beck was able to help the Hurricanes achieve some success in our simulations, though. Miami won the national championship four times, which is tied for the most after Clemson, Georgia and Penn State. Oregon and Texas Tech also won the national championship four times. The Hurricanes and Ducks accounting for 16% of the national titles won in this exercise shouldn't be much of a surprise as they were both ranked in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 poll. But the Red Raiders, even with their reported massive spending to upgrade their roster, would seem to be a bit of a shock, as they were ranked 23rd in the preseason poll.
The most surprising national champions in this exercise, based on preseason rankings, were Duke and Nebraska. Both defeated Ohio State to win the national championship.
Texas, ranked No. 1 in AP Top 25 poll and in RJ Young's Ultimate 136, only won the national championship once.
Going by conference, the Big Ten and SEC each won the national championship 16 times. An ACC team won the national championship on 13 occasions, while Texas Tech represented all four of the Big 12's national title wins. Notre Dame also won a national championship.
Power 4 Conference Champions
No team had a larger stranglehold on its conference in the 50 simulations than Texas Tech, winning the Big 12 a total of 28 times. The Red Raiders were the only power conference team to win their conference at least 20 times in this exercise, which is a bit of a surprise since the consensus seems to be that the Big 12 is wide open entering the 2025 season. Baylor (11), BYU (4) and Iowa State (3) were the only other teams to win the conference on multiple occasions. Kansas, Colorado and Utah were also among the teams that won the Big 12.
In the Big Ten, Penn State prevailed the most, winning the conference 19 times as James Franklin's Nittany Lions seek to get over the hump in 2025. Oregon had the second-most Big Ten titles with 12, while Michigan (6), USC (6), Illinois (2), Indiana (2) and Ohio State (2) were the other multi-time Big Ten winners. Nebraska won the conference once, too.
While Georgia was king of the SEC in our 50 simulations, there was an extreme amount of parity in the conference. The Bulldogs won the SEC 11 times, with Alabama (8) and Texas (7) coming second and third, respectively. Six other teams won the SEC in our simulations, as Florida (6), Oklahoma (5), South Carolina (5), Texas A&M (4), LSU (2) and Tennessee (2) all won the conference multiple times.
No team prevailed in the CFP more than Clemson, but the Tigers played second fiddle to Miami in the ACC. The Hurricanes won the conference 19 times over our simulations, while Clemson won the ACC on 15 occasions. Duke was the only other school to win the conference at least 10 times, winning it exactly that number of times. Virginia Tech (3), Pitt (2) and SMU (1) were also among the schools to win the ACC.
Heisman
After a breakout season in 2024, Cade Klubnik emerged as the top player in college football in more than a handful of our simulations. The Clemson quarterback won the Heisman 13 times, which was the most of any player. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith had the second-most Heisman wins with nine. Smith's number of Heisman wins shouldn't come as a major surprise as the "College Football 26" co-cover star also has the highest rating of any player in the game.
The most surprising multi-time Heisman winner might have been USF quarterback Byrum Brown. He won the Heisman four times, even though the Bulls didn't make the CFP once in the 50 simulations.
Oregon had a couple of multi-time Heisman winners in the 50 simulations, with quarterback Dante Moore and running back Makhi Hughes each winning it twice. So did Ohio State, with quarterback Julian Sayin winning it twice. Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams, who joined Smith on the cover of the video game, was a two-time Heisman winner in our 50 simulations. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer (2) rounds out the players who won the Heisman on multiple occasions in our simulations, which would be welcomed news for the Sooners fans.
Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein, Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton, USC quarterback Jayden Maiava, Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza each won the Heisman once.
Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason was probably the most unlikely player to win the Heisman across our 50 simulations. He had the lowest overall rating (80) among the 17 players to win the Heisman in our exercise, but his strong dual-threat ability in one of the 50 seasons was good enough for him to take home the award. He threw for 4,047 yards, 31 touchdowns and two interceptions to go with 416 rushing yards and 12 rushing scores in his Heisman-winning season, leading Toledo to a MAC title. However, the Rockets were not ranked high enough to reach the CFP.
Best team: Penn State
Is this the year that James Franklin finally breaks through and wins big games? "College Football 26" seems to think so. The Nittany Lions won the national championship eight times, which we already mentioned was tied for the most. But they also made the CFP 42 times in the 50 simulations, which was more than the two other teams that also won the national championship eight times in the simulations (Clemson, 32; Georgia, 31). Penn State also made the national championship game on 10 occasions, so winning it eight times is pretty impressive.
Biggest surprises: Duke, Texas Tech
North Carolina might have the greatest coach in football history joining its sideline this season, but another school on Tobacco Road achieved great success in "College Football 26." The Blue Devils were consistent contenders in this exercise, winning the ACC 10 times and making the CFP on 26 occasions. They also reached the national championship game four times, winning it once.
As for Texas Tech, the 23rd-ranked Red Raiders' relative dominance of the Big 12 stood out, but they also were able to make a handful of deep runs in the CFP, too. In addition to their four national championships, quarterback Behren Morton also won the Heisman once.
Biggest disappointments: Ohio State, Texas
We already hit on how underwhelming the Buckeyes were earlier in this story, but here's some added context: Ohio State has the highest-rated offensive (Jeremiah Smith) and defensive (Caleb Downs) players in the game. So, even with that elite talent, Ohio State still couldn't break through once.
As for Texas, the Longhorns were ranked No. 1 in several preseason polls, but "College Football 26" isn't feeling "Arch Mania." Not only did Texas only win it all just once, but Manning only finished in the top five of the Heisman voting twice. He didn't win the award once in 50 simulations, which would be a shock as he enters the season as the betting favorite to win the Heisman.
Chaos sim
Simulation No. 1 might have been the most chaotic, with Texas Tech winning it all while beating Duke in the semis along the way. If it wasn't that one, then it was simulation No. 44. Duke, an 11th-seed, defeated sixth-seed Miami, third-seeded Texas and 10th-seeded Penn State before taking down ninth-seeded Ohio State in the national championship game. BYU was the other semifinalist, while the ACC had five teams make the 12-team CFP. The SEC only had one representative.
Coaching carousel
Of everything that happened in these 50 simulations, the most chaotic thing might have been the coaching carousel. With real-life coaches being included in the game for the first time, the coaching carousel brought a lot of interesting twists and turns.
If "College Football 26" is to be believed, Michigan's Sherrone Moore has one of the hottest seats in the nation. He was fired in 20 of the simulations, even getting axed after leading Michigan to the CFP on one occasion. Texas' Steve Sarkisian replaced Moore on 17 of the 20 occasions, which is interesting as Sarkisian doesn't have any obvious connections to the program. As for the other three times Moore was fired, Michigan hired Oregon's Dan Lanning, who left Eugene for Ann Arbor after helping the Ducks reach the national championship on one occasion.
But Lanning pulling a Kalen DeBoer wasn't the only jaw-dropping thing to come from the coaching carousel. Four years after shockingly leaving Oklahoma for USC, Lincoln Riley returned to Norman in two of the 50 simulations. In one of those instances, Riley became Oklahoma's head coach again after coaching USC to the title game.
Speaking of DeBoer, he either left or was fired by Alabama in 11 simulations. Dabo Swinney replaced him each time, including after a Clemson national title. South Carolina's Shane Beamer and Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin were the most frequent coaches to replace Swinney at Clemson, while Kiffin was also the most frequent coach to replace Sarkisian at Texas.
As for Moore, he was able to land a head coaching job each time he was fired. He mostly got head coaching roles with non-power conference schools, but Washington, Louisville and Kentucky each hired him in different simulations.
Penn State's James Franklin left Happy Valley to become Notre Dame's head coach after winning the national championship in one of the simulations. Franklin replaced Marcus Freeman in all six instances that he was fired, and even hired Baylor head coach Dave Aranda to be his defensive coordinator after he coached the Bears to the CFP in one simulation.
While no coach has seemingly dealt with more pressure than Ryan Day in recent years, Ohio State kept him after all 50 simulations. Maybe the national championship brought him some stability?
Nebraska's Matt Rhule was fired a whopping 22 times in our simulations, but resurfaced as a head coach at Big Ten schools nearly every single time (Wisconsin, Maryland, Rutgers). He also made the bold move to go back to the NFL after one of the seasons.
Finally, while Bill Belichick and Deion Sanders aren't in the game, the avatars portraying them each went to the NFL once over the 50 simulations.
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