Democrats have ‘blue dot' dreams in Nebraska
Don't look now, but Democrats are suddenly full of optimism about their prospects … in Nebraska.
The carmine-tinged state with its famous 'blue dot' around Omaha is suddenly looking like a legitimate battleground to zealous Democrats. They are buoyed by a key GOP retirement from Congress and a local electoral victory where a longtime Republican was toppled. And that was before last week's passage of Donald Trump's megabill, which his critics predict will add trillions of dollars to the national deficit and boot millions of people off Medicaid.
'There is so much anger at what is happening with all of the cuts, in particular in rural communities, that if there was ever an opening to win statewide, [2026] is the year,' Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb told The Recast.
Practicality and coalition building is nonnegotiable for her party to compete in a state like Nebraska, Kleeb said. It's partly why she's not planning to recruit a candidate in next year's Senate race — an effort to help boost the chances of independent populist candidate Dan Osborn, who launched his candidacy Tuesday to compete against incumbent GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts, a low-key but ultra-wealthy former governor who is seeking a full six-year term.
Kleeb met with Osborn last week. Among the topics they discussed was whether he would have voted for Trump's sweeping 'big, beautiful bill,' which Osborn affirmed he would not have — though he does agree with Trump that 'Biden failed us at the border.'
To understand why Democrats are excited in Nebraska — a state where Republicans control the offices of governor, secretary of state, attorney general, the state Legislature and all three of the state's congressional seats — requires a look at recent trends in the 'blue dot,' otherwise known as Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
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Omaha Mayor John Ewing Jr.'s decisive victory in May — a 13 percentage point walloping of three-term Republican Jean Stothert — made him the first Democrat to hold the post since 2013. Ewing is also the city's first Black mayor.
In an op-ed, he cited not getting pulled into divisive national politics and focusing instead on kitchen table issues like crumbling streets and housing affordability as some of the reasons behind his victory.
'For too long, cities like Omaha have been ignored by national political strategists and the media,' he wrote. 'We're considered flyover country, not a political battleground. But that kind of thinking is short-sighted.'
In addition to Ewing's victory, there was also last week's announcement from centrist U.S. Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) that he would not seek reelection, offering the best opportunity for Democrats in recent memory to compete for an open and winnable congressional seat. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report recently moved the seat from 'Toss Up' to 'Lean Democrat.'
'I think Nebraska has a real, real chance of being the center of a lot that goes on this political season,' said Ken Schilz, a former Republican state senator from Nebraska who suggested Democrats' excitement about making gains in the state might be warranted. He cautioned, though, that there might not be enough deep-pocketed donors to help compete for the seat Bacon is vacating and boost Osborn in his Senate run.
'If [Democrats are] going to win a statewide election in Nebraska, you've got to have the money from Omaha,' he said. 'And if all that money from Omaha is tied up in a congressional race, it'll be hard to find any of that for any other races.'
The House contest, he added, 'could have the ability … to suck the air out of the room.'
Kleeb pushed back on that assertion.
'We are clearly ready and focused on winning the 2nd Congressional District, and have a plan to do that, and we are definitely focused on helping win statewide as well.'
All the best,The Recast Team
DAVIS EYES SENATE RUN
Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is eyeing a bid for a North Carolina Senate seat in 2026. If he wins, Davis would become the Tar Heel State's first Black senator.
Hannah Spengler, his chief of staff, told POLITICO that the second-term congressman is 'looking at all options and not ruling anything out,' while my colleagues Nicholas Wu and Jordain Carney also note that should Davis follow through on that Senate run, it would mean giving up a closely contested House seat in a district won by Trump last cycle.
Davis, who has earned a reputation as a moderate who does not engage in fiery clashes with his GOP colleagues, is likely enticed by a potential run following last week's stunning announcement that incumbent GOP Sen. Thom Tillis will not seek reelection. That announcement came on the heels of Tillis' refusal to vote for Trump's megabill and the president's subsequent threat to back a primary challenger for Tillis' seat.
Last cycle, Davis faced fiercer competition than he did when he was first elected in 2022, thanks to the GOP-controlled state Legislature's redistricting that made the state's 1st Congressional District far more competitive. In the state's only true toss-up contest last cycle, Davis narrowly defeated his Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout by roughly 6,300 votes.
With Tillis retiring at the end of his term, Democrats are bullish about their chances of winning a North Carolina Senate seat, which has been the party's white whale since Tillis defeated Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in 2014.
Democrats' hopes were dashed in 2022 when House Freedom Caucus member Ted Budd beat Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former state Supreme Court judge, in what had been an open contest to replace the then-retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr. That loss extended Democrats' losing streak in North Carolina's Senate and presidential contests dating back to 2008, when both Hagan and Barack Obama carried the state.
Aside from the potential bid from Davis, former Rep. Wiley Nickel announced his Senate campaign in April, becoming the first declared Democratic candidate. Popular former Gov. Roy Cooper is the biggest wild card on the Democratic side and would enter as the undisputed frontrunner for the nomination. He's expected to make his decision this summer.
On the Republican side, RNC Chair Michael Whatley and Rep. Pat Harrigan are reportedly eyeing bids, as is Lara Trump, the president's daughter-in-law, who grew up in Wilmington.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING THIS WEEK
Gerontocracy watch — Democrat Eleanor Holmes Norton, a civil rights icon, has been steadfast in her public statements that she will seek reelection next year when she turns 89. Her staff, however, has contradicted those statements on multiple occasions, telling reporters that 'no decision has been made.' POLITICO's Michael Schaffer looks at the delicate dance of covering aging members of Congress.
And more:
TODAY'S CULTURE NEWS
Mahershala Ali dodges questions about 'Blade' — The two-time Oscar winner, who also stars in this weekend's top box office earning 'Jurassic World Rebirth,' is done talking about his long-delayed star turn as the titular character in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Craig Robinson says he's quitting comedy — The former star of 'The Office' gives hints as to why in an Instagram post.
Cardi B and her NFL boo on the outs? — It's fueling speculation after the 'I Like It' rapper scrubbed her social media posts of any mention of NFL receiver Stefon Diggs.
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