Zinc and lead in 2025: Global trends, China's role, and price outlook
Live Events
China: A Pivotal Player
LME Price Performance
Correcting U.S. Dollar and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices in 2025
Outlook
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel
The global zinc and lead markets in 2025 are navigating a complex landscape shaped by shifting industrial demand, evolving supply chains, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Both metals are essential to the infrastructure, automotive, and energy sectors, making their market dynamics critical to global economic health.According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), global demand for refined zinc is projected to rise by 1% in 2025, reaching 13.64 million tonnes. This modest growth follows a decline in 2024, reflecting a cautious recovery in industrial activity.On the supply side, zinc mine production is expected to increase by 4.3% to 12.43 million tonnes, driven by new capacity in Australia, China, Mexico, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Refined zinc output is also set to rise, leading to a forecast surplus of 93,000 tonnes.For lead, global demand is anticipated to grow by 1.5% to 13.19 million tonnes, while mine production is forecast to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tonnes. Refined lead output is expected to reach 13.27 million tonnes, resulting in a surplus of 82,000 tonnes.These surpluses suggest a softening of price pressures, although regional dynamics may still cause volatility.China remains the dominant force in both zinc and lead markets. In 2025, Chinese demand for refined zinc is expected to grow by 0.9%, recovering from a 1.9% decline in 2024. This rebound is supported by government stimulus measures, a recovering property sector, and increased infrastructure spending.Similarly, lead demand in China is forecast to rise by 0.9%, reflecting stabilization in battery production and the automotive sector.On the supply side, China continues to expand its mining and refining capacities. It is a key contributor to the global increase in both zinc and lead production, helping offset declines in other regions. However, environmental regulations and energy constraints may limit further expansion.The London Metal Exchange (LME) has seen mixed performance for zinc and lead in 2025. Zinc prices have remained relatively stable, buoyed by expectations of demand recovery and constrained supply growth. However, the anticipated surplus has capped significant upward momentum. Lead prices have shown similar trends, with modest gains reflecting balanced fundamentals.Both metals are influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, including the weakness of the US dollar, interest rate policies, and geopolitical tensions. The inverse relationship with the Dollar Index has been particularly evident, with price movements closely tracking currency fluctuations.The U.S. dollar has entered a significant correction phase in 2025, with the Dollar Index falling over 10.8% in the first half of the year—its steepest decline since the 1970s.Traditionally, a weaker dollar boosts base metal prices, as commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for holders of other currencies. However, the current market response has been more nuanced, indicating that supply-demand fundamentals and macroeconomic factors are exerting a stronger influence than currency movements alone.Looking ahead, the zinc and lead markets in 2025 are characterized by cautious optimism. While global surpluses may temper price spikes, the performance of the US dollar and regional demand—especially from China—will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics. Investors and industry stakeholders should closely monitor policy shifts, supply chain developments, and macroeconomic indicators to navigate this evolving landscape.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Economic Times
an hour ago
- Economic Times
The coder 'village' at heart of China's latest AI frenzy
Synopsis Hangzhou, a suburb of China, is emerging as a prominent AI hub, attracting entrepreneurs and tech talent with government support and proximity to tech giants like Alibaba and DeepSeek. Fueled by AI fever, the city fosters startups and innovation, with DeepSeek's cost-effective AI system shaking the tech world. Agencies The Coder 'Village' at Heart of China's Latest AI Frenzy Hangzhou: It was a sunny Saturday afternoon, and dozens of people sat in the grass around a backyard stage where aspiring founders of tech startups talked about their ideas. People in the crowd slouched over laptops, vaping and drinking strawberry Frappuccinos. A drone buzzed overhead. Inside the house, investors took pitches in the kitchen. It looked like Silicon Valley, but it was Liangzhu, a quiet suburb of the southern Chinese city of Hangzhou, which is a hot spot for entrepreneurs and tech talent lured by low rents and proximity to tech companies like Alibaba and DeepSeek. "People come here to explore their own possibilities," said Felix Tao, 36, a former Facebook and Alibaba employee who hosted the all of those possibilities involve artificial intelligence. As China faces off with the United States over tech primacy, Hangzhou has become the center of China's AI frenzy. A decade ago, the provincial and local governments started offering subsidies and tax breaks to new companies in Hangzhou, a policy that has helped incubate hundreds of startups. On weekends, people fly in from Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen to hire many of them have ended up in Tao's backyard. He helped found an AI research lab at Alibaba before leaving to start his own company, Mindverse, in 2022. Now Tao's home is a hub for coders who have settled in Liangzhu, many in their 20s and 30s. They call themselves "villagers," writing code in coffee shops during the day and gaming together at night, hoping to harness AI to create their own companies. Hangzhou has already birthed tech powerhouses, not only Alibaba and DeepSeek but also NetEase and Hikvision. In January, DeepSeek shook the tech world when it released an AI system that it said it had made for a small fraction of the cost that Silicon Valley companies had spent on their own. Since then, systems made by DeepSeek and Alibaba have ranked among the top-performing open source AI models in the world, meaning they are available for anyone to build on. Graduates from Hangzhou's Zhejiang University, where DeepSeek's founder studied, have become sought-after employees at Chinese tech media closely followed the poaching of a core member of DeepSeek's team by the electronics company Xiaomi. In Liangzhu, many engineers said they were killing time until they could create their own startups, waiting out noncompete agreements they had signed at bigger companies like ByteDance. DeepSeek is one of six AI and robotics startups from the city that Chinese media calls the "six tigers of Hangzhou."
Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Donald Trump's tariff letters to hit 12 countries as trade deadline chaos looms
President Trump has signed "take it or leave it" letters to 12 countries on Monday, slapping new tariffs of 10% to 70% on their exports to the U.S. These taxes kick in August 1 unless deals are made by Wednesday's deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned 100 smaller nations they'll face April's original tariffs if they don't hurry up. "If you don't move things along, you'll boomerang back," he said Sunday. Only the UK and Vietnam have deals so far, everyone else faces chaos. Businesses worldwide are panicking, unsure if their goods will get taxed . Vietnam relatively got the best deal: Its exports to America face 20% tariffs (down from 46%), but "transshipped" Chinese goods will get hit with 40%. The UK kept its 10% rate but opened its markets to U.S. cars and aircraft. Meanwhile, Japan was called "spoiled" by Trump and may face 35% tariffs, higher than April's 24%.The EU is sweating over threatened 50% taxes on its cars and cheese. All weekend, EU leaders argued: Germany wants any deal to avoid disaster, while France refuses a 'bad deal'. India might get last-minute mercy, but Trump grumbled, 'Letters are easier than talks'.Canada escaped the letters, at least for now. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra promised a "real deal" by July 21, but warned Canada might still pay some tariffs. Thailand offered a last-minute deal: more U.S. farm sales and Boeing jet buys to avoid 36% tariffs. South Korea begged for extra time, even offering factory House adviser Kevin Hassett hinted some countries could get deadline extensions if they're "close to a deal," but Trump snapped, "Not really" when asked about flexibility. The confusion is crushing businesses. "You can't plan costs when rules change weekly," said trade expert Clark Packard. The tariffs could make everything from electronics to groceries pricier for Americans. Though Trump claims "foreign countries pay," experts confirm U.S. importers foot the bill and pass costs to consumers. A 10% baseline tariff has already been in place since April, but jumps like Japan's potential 35% would cause bigger price hikes. Legal battles might save some: A U.S. court already ruled most tariffs illegal, but the decision is on hold. For now, the chaos continues. "We'll see," Bessent teased about Wednesday's deadline, adding deals might pop up "very quickly." But with 200+ trade partners, most will likely face taxes or empty promises.
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business Standard
Sunil Mittal, Warburg Pincus eye 49% in Haier India at steep discount
Sunil Mittal's family office and US-based private equity major Warburg Pincus have submitted a bid to acquire a 49 per cent stake in Haier India at a sharply reduced valuation of ₹6,000 crore ($720 million), according to people familiar with the matter. The Chinese parent, Haier Group, had initially sought a valuation of around $2 billion (₹17,100 crore), but offers were significantly lower, said one of the persons, asking not to be named as the discussions are private. Haier is now weighing whether to proceed with the deal or wait for improved market conditions, the person added. As part of the proposed transaction, Haier India employees are expected to acquire a 2 per cent stake, while a public listing is being considered within two years to provide an eventual exit route for the Chinese firm, the people said. 'After the deal, the buyer will have to pay a steep brand usage fees and royalties to the Chinese parent, which has dampened the valuation,' said a person close to the development. Haier, which fully owns the Indian subsidiary, has been exploring a potential exit for several months and even held early-stage discussions with Reliance Industries Ltd, India's largest conglomerate, according to the people. Emails sent to Haier, Mittal's office, and Warburg Pincus on Friday went unanswered until the press time. The proposed deal comes amid a broader trend of Chinese firms paring back their India exposure following geopolitical tensions and growing scrutiny of Chinese investments by India. In March last year, Chinese automaker SAIC Motor agreed to sell a majority stake in its Indian subsidiary MG Motors India to the Sajjan Jindal group. In May, Ant Group exited its investment in Paytm through $246 million worth via block trades. Haier entered India in 2004 and holds a 14 per cent share of the refrigerator market. Its presence in other categories — including washing machines, televisions, and air conditioners — remains in the single digit. India's household appliances market is projected to reach $64.3 billion in 2025, growing at a 7.3 percent CAGR through 2030, according to data from Statista.
