Re-ranking all 18 Big Ten football 2025 conference schedules from hardest to easiest

USA Today

3 days ago

Re-ranking all 18 Big Ten football 2025 conference schedules from hardest to easiest
The 2025 college football season is inching closer, and as we cross the 100-day barrier until the season begins, you can feel anticipation start to build.
Even in the ever-changing world of college football, where teams are changing conferences and players are jumping from team to team like never before, one constant will always remain: fans complaining that their team's path to the finish line is more difficult than anyone else's.
A year ago, major questions faced the Oregon Ducks as they moved from the Pac-12 Conference to the Big Ten Conference. Would they be able to hold up against the elevated competition? Dan Lanning's team answered that right away, winning the Big Ten in their first season as conference members.
With marquee conference wins over Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Washington, the Ducks left little doubt that they were the best regular-season team. But will they be able to prove the same in 2025? More than that, how conducive is their schedule to establishing such a thing?
This is where the conversation about strength of schedule comes in. Who does Oregon play this year, and how tough will it be to get back to the conference title game? How does their path compare to other teams in the Big Ten, and what can this tell us about who might end up in Indianapolis at the start of December?
Those are things best answered by our strength of schedule rankings. Prior to the spring football season, we went through this exercise, using a combination of ESPN's SP+ rankings and combined opponent score to place a numerical value on each team's slate of games. From there, we were able to see who had the toughest path forward.
After spring ball, though, the SP+ numbers got an update from ESPN's Bill Connelly. Therefore, it is worth revisiting our SOS rankings to see how much things changed as well. Here is a reminder on how things work:
The equation used to compare each slate is simple. First, we take each team's SP+ rating to find a numerical value for every game. The higher that number, the tougher the matchup. We then add every opponent's SP+ rating together to find a total opponent score. That large number is divided by the number 12 (total games) to find the average opponent score — a number that can then be compared to the SP+ leaderboard to find, on average, what a team will face each week.
(Note: Home and away is not factored into the model. Also, Football Championship Subdivision opponents are not listed in SP+. Every FCS opponent was assessed a "minus-15' rating, akin to the No. 118 team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.)
With that, here is an in-depth look at the Big Ten's strength of schedule ranking entering the 2025 season:
Total Opponent Score: 41.6
Average Opponent Score: 3.46 (akin to the 47th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
USC (11.0)
Purdue (-10.0)
Ohio State (29.5)
Washington (6.4)
Rutgers (4.7)
Maryland (-1.1)
Wisconsin (7.2)
Northwestern (-6.1)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 18
Conference games against Ohio State, USC, and Washington could be challenging, but outside of that, Illinois should be able to handle the rest of the slate with relative ease, especially in the non-conference.
17. Michigan Wolverines
Total Opponent Score: 45.6
Average Opponent Score: 3.80 (akin to the 47th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Nebraska (8.9)
Wisconsin (7.2)
USC (11.0)
Washington (6.4)
Michigan State (-0.2)
Purdue (-10.0)
Northwestern (-6.1)
Maryland (-1.1)
Ohio State (29.5)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 17
Any year in the Big Ten when you can miss two of the three big dogs — Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State — is favorable, and with Michigan only drawing the Buckeyes of that trio, it bodes well. If the QB situation is what it's cracked up to be under Bryce Underwood, the Wolverines could make some noise. That early-season game against Oklahoma should be interesting.
Get more Michigan news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire
16. USC Trojans
Total Opponent Score: 67.4
Average Opponent Score: 5.61 (akin to the 40th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Purdue (-10.0)
Michigan State (-0.2)
Illinois (14.3)
Michigan (21.5)
Nebraska (8.9)
Northwestern (-6.1)
Iowa (11.4)
Oregon (24.7)
UCLA (2.9)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 10
A non-conference game against Notre Dame is always going to be tough, but USC does manage to skip both Ohio State and Penn State during the season. Games against Oregon, Michigan, and Illinois could prove challenging, but we will see if Lincoln Riley's revamped squad is up to the task.
Get more USC news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire
15. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Total Opponent Score: 70.2
Average Opponent Score: 5.85 (akin to the 40th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Rutgers (4.7)
Ohio State (29.5)
Purdue (-10.0)
Nebraska (8.9)
Iowa (11.4)
Michigan State (-0.2)
Oregon (24.7)
Northwestern (-6.1)
Wisconsin (7.2)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 12
I expect Minnesota to be an average-to-above-average team in the conference this year, so they should be able to deal with a lot of the teams on their schedule, outside of the like of Ohio Stae, Oregon, and maybe Nebraska.
14. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Total Opponent Score: 73.1
Average Opponent Score: 6.09 (akin to the 40th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Michigan (21.5)
Michigan State (-0.2)
Maryland (-1.1)
Minnesota (6.0)
Northwestern (-6.1)
USC (11.0)
UCLA (2.9)
Penn State (27.7)
Iowa (11.4)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 13
Missing Ohio State and Oregon is great for Nebraska, but Penn State late in the year could be challenging, and an early game against Michigan could provide an early test for Dylan Raiola and his teammates. If the QB is everything he's cracked up to be, the Cornhuskers should be able to fare well with this slate of games, though.
Get more Nebraska news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire
13. Maryland Terrapins
Total Opponent Score: 74.9
Average Opponent Score: 2.87 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Wisconsin (7.2)
Washington (6.4)
Nebraska (8.9)
UCLA (2.9)
Indiana (12.2)
Rutgers (4.7)
Illinois (11.3)
Michigan (21.5)
Michigan State (-0.2)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 15
Maryland draws a nice schedule, missing out on Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State, with Michigan being the toughest game on the slate. Of course, the Terrapins also aren't one of the better teams in the conference, so it remains hard to forecast a successful season despite the relative ease of the schedule.
Total Opponent Score: 76.9
Average Opponent Score: 6.40 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Illinois (14.3)
Iowa (11.4)
Oregon (24.7)
Michigan State (-0.2)
UCLA (2.9)
Maryland (-1.1)
Penn State (27.7)
Wisconsin (7.2)
Purdue (-10.0)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 16
Can Curt Cignetti bounce back from his College Football Playoff season in 2024? The non-conference slate is easy, but games against Oregon and Penn State will prove to be difficult, especially in Autzen Stadium. Outside of those two, though, I don't see many roadblocks.
11. Oregon Ducks
Total Opponent Score: 80.5
Average Opponent Score: 6.70 (akin to the 38th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Northwestern (-6.1)
Penn State (27.7)
Indiana (12.2)
Rutgers (4.7)
Wisconsin (7.2)
Iowa (11.4)
Minnesota (6.0)
USC (11.0)
Washington (6.4)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 8
Oregon's non-conference schedule should be pretty straightforward, and missing the likes of Ohio State and Michigan helps in conference play. Still, games against Penn State and Washington on the road will be challenging, while Indiana and USC get the Ducks at Autzen.
Get more Oregon news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire
10. Ohio State Buckeyes
Total Opponent Score: 80.7
Average Opponent Score: 6.72 (akin to the 38th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Washington (6.4)
Minnesota (6.0)
Illinois (14.3)
Wisconsin (7.2)
Penn State (27.7)
Purdue (-10.0)
UCLA (2.9)
Rutgers (4.7)
Michigan (21.5)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 4
A season-opener against Texas is going to be thrilling to watch for Ohio State, but their conference slate is very manageable, with the biggest games coming against Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan at the end of the year.
Get more Ohio State news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire
9. Penn State Nittany Lions
Total Opponent Score: 88.0
Average Opponent Score: 7.33 (akin to the 35th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Oregon (24.7)
UCLA (2.9)
Northwestern (-6.1)
Iowa (11.4)
Ohio State (29.5)
Indiana (12.2)
Michigan State (-0.2)
Nebraska (8.9)
Rutgers (4.7)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 14
Games against Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana could prove tough for Penn State, but outside of those three, there aren't many that give you pause, especially if James Franklin can get his veteran squad playing at a similar caliber as they did a year ago.
Get more Penn State news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire
8. UCLA Bruins
Total Opponent Score: 88.3
Average Opponent Score: 7.35 (akin to the 36th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Northwestern (-6.1)
Penn State (27.7)
Michigan State (-0.2)
Maryland (-1.1)
Indiana (12.2)
Nebraska (8.9)
Ohio State (29.5)
Washington (6.4)
USC (11.0)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 5
An opening game against Utah is tough for UCLA, and they get some solid teams in conference play as well, with Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, and USC all through the regular season.
Get more UCLA news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire
7. Washington Huskies
Total Opponent Score: 93.7
Average Opponent Score: 7.80 (akin to the 35th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Ohio State (29.5)
Maryland (-1.1)
Rutgers (4.7)
Michigan (21.5)
Illinois (14.3)
Wisconsin (7.2)
Purdue (-10.0)
UCLA (2.9)
Oregon (24.7)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 11
What version of Washington can we expect this year? A return to their normal form makes this a very manageable schedule, with tough games against Oregon and Ohio State. However, another year like 2024 and games against Washington State, Michigan, and Wisconsin qualify as tough as well.
Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire
6. Purdue Boilermakers
Total Opponent Score: 99.5
Average Opponent Score: 8.29 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
USC (11.0)
Illinois (14.3)
Minnesota (6.0)
Northwestern (-6.1)
Rutgers (4.7)
Michigan (21.5)
Ohio State (29.5)
Washington (6.4)
Indiana (12.2)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 2
The non-conference game against Notre Dame really makes this schedule tougher than it seems, as the conference slate isn't too brutal without Oregon or Penn State on the schedule.
5. Michigan State Spartans
Total Opponent Score: 100.5
Average Opponent Score: 8.37 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
USC (11.0)
Nebraska (8.9)
UCLA (2.9)
Indiana (12.2)
Michigan (21.5)
Minnesota (6.0)
Penn State (27.7)
Iowa (11.4)
Maryland (-1.1)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 9
At this point in the list, we're getting to pretty tough schedules. The non-conference is easy here, but games against USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa all could be a challenge for the Spartans.
Get more Michigan State news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire
Total Opponent Score: 102.2
Average Opponent Score: 8.51 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Rutgers (4.7)
Indiana (12.2)
Wisconsin (7.2)
Penn State (27.7)
Minnesota (6.0)
Oregon (24.7)
USC (11.0)
Michigan State (-0.2)
Nebraska (8.9)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 6
A non-conference game against Iowa State won't be easy, and facing Indiana, Penn State, and Oregon in a five-game stretch could prove difficult for the Hawkeyes, followed by games against USC and Nebraska not long after.
Get more Iowa news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire
Total Opponent Score: 107.0
Average Opponent Score: 8.91 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Oregon (24.7)
UCLA (2.9)
Penn State (27.7)
Purdue (-10.0)
Nebraska (8.9)
USC (11.0)
Michigan (21.5)
Minnesota (6.0)
Illinois (14.3)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 7
Facing Oregon and Penn State in a three-game stretch is not going to be easy, and games against Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois will all be tough down the stretch for Northwestern.
2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Total Opponent Score: 108.9
Average Opponent Score: 9.07 (akin to the 33rd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Iowa (11.4)
Minnesota (6.0)
Washington (6.4)
Oregon (24.7)
Purdue (-10.0)
Illinois (14.3)
Maryland (-1.1)
Ohio State (29.5)
Penn State (27.7)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 3
The deadly trio of Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State on the schedule is going to be tough for any team to handle. Outside of those three, Rutgers has to deal with Iowa, Washington and Illinois, which doesn't set up for a great season.
1. Wisconsin Badgers
Total Opponent Score: 124.9
Average Opponent Score: 10.4 (akin to the 32nd-best team in the country)
Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating):
Maryland (-1.1)
Michigan (21.5)
Iowa (11.4)
Ohio State (29.5)
Oregon (24.7)
Washington (6.4)
Indiana (12.2)
Illinois (14.3)
Minnesota (6.0)
Previous SOS Ranking: No. 1
A non-conference game against Alabama is always going to be tough, with conference games against Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Washington. Good luck, Luke Fickell.
Get more Wisconsin news, analysis and opinions on Badgers Wire
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