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USA Today
3 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
Iowa football Big Ten home opener among ESPN's top conference games
As the 2025-26 college football season approaches, ESPN released an article featuring the top 10 Big Ten games of the season, with one particular Iowa football matchup involving an upward-trending conference opponent. While the beginning of the season features many high-profile matchups in both conference play and non-conference action, ESPN has listed Iowa's Sept. 27 game against Indiana from Kinnick Stadium as one of its top matchups. Indiana is fresh off one of their most successful seasons in program history in 2024, where the Hoosiers finished with an overall record of 11-2, an 8-2 conference record, and qualified for the program's first-ever College Football Playoff appearance in head coach Curt Cignetti's first season. While ESPN did not provide much of an explanation as to why they chose the Sept. 27 game against the Hoosiers over the other impactful matchups on the Hawkeyes' slate, the clash between both former Big Ten West division foes will be Iowa's first significant challenge of the season and be a precursor for their ability to compete against the conference's top programs later on. The article also took a deep dive into each Big Ten program's outlook for the upcoming season, identifying Iowa's need to win close games with its consistently stingy defense, as the strength of its newly improved offense is still unknown. With six games projected within one score and visits from Penn State and Oregon (you know Iowa will scare at least one of them), close games will make the difference between potential CFP contention and finishing 7-5. But it's almost comforting knowing exactly what the Hawkeyes are going to look like regardless. - Bill Connelly, ESPN The Hawkeyes open their 2025-26 campaign on Aug. 30, when FCS-level UAlbany visits Kinnick Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 5 p.m. CT and will be broadcast on FS1. Contact/Follow us @HawkeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Iowa news, notes, and opinions. Follow Scout on X: @SpringgateNews.
USA Today
4 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
ESPN's SP+ ranks Michigan football No. 10 for 2025, eyes Big Ten title run
Despite being just one season removed from winning a national championship, most pundits in college football have started to look at Michigan football as something of an also-ran following an 8-5 season in 2024, rather than last year being a blip on the radar. The operative word here is 'most.' ESPN's resident advanced analytics guru Bill Connelly isn't among those looking down his nose at the Wolverines. Of course, Connelly is the one who puts together SP+ as well as the returning production rankings. He's done more to analyze the field than simply going off name recognition or projecting off of the previous year's results. As far as the maize and blue are concerned, Connelly does have Michigan as the fourth-best team in the Big Ten -- but he also has the Wolverines as the 10th-best team in the country. Via his Big Ten preview on ESPN, he has Michigan as one of the conference championship contenders: 2025 projection: 10th in SP+, 9.8 average wins (7.2 in the Big Ten) If you can beat Ohio State and Alabama without a quarterback, just think of what you can do with one, right (...) The No. 10 ranking in SP+ is certainly aggressive. It will require massive offensive improvement. But with a schedule featuring only two opponents projected better than 30th (Oklahoma at the start, Ohio State at the end), the Wolverines won't need a top-10 team to win a lot of games. One of the things he mentions is that Michigan will face some tough competition early on, with road trips to Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC. He does have the Sooners at No. 16 in his rankings, so the only school that is ranked ahead of the Wolverines on the schedule is Ohio State. So, with that in mind, should Michigan football return to form, where the Wolverines beat the teams they're supposed to, that -- in theory -- would vault the maize and blue to 11-0 going into The Game. However, there's a reason why games aren't played on paper. And if Connelly is right (and we tend to agree), that if there's just a modicum of offensive improvement, then yes, Michigan could be relatively formidable in 2025.
USA Today
08-07-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Where Clemson stands in ESPN's 2025 ACC college football projections, preview
What every Clemson football player is rated in EA Sports College Football 26 ESPN's Bill Connelly isn't ready to crown Clemson football as a true national champion contender just yet — even if the numbers say the Tigers could be back in the mix. In his latest ACC preview, Connelly calls Clemson the clear favorite to win the league and return to the playoff, but he questions whether Dabo Swinney's squad can go the distance. 'It's a no-brainer to place Clemson atop the ACC pile. That makes the Tigers one of the surest picks to make the CFP. Where I struggle is when it comes to envisioning them winning three to four playoff games,' he wrote. He points to a defense that didn't live up to its talent last season and an offense that lacked enough big plays to scare elite teams. 'The run defense was mediocre even with (Peter) Woods' efforts up front, and the pass defense was merely good, not great,' he noted. Clemson's passing game didn't exactly pop either — 'Mafah and Haynes produced some lovely big runs, but the Tigers ranked 80th in yards per successful dropback, and Klubnik averaged just 11.7 yards per completion,' Connelly added. He also thinks a bit of good fortune helped: 'Without those bounces in Charlotte, there's no way we're talking about a top-five team here.' Still, he sees the potential. 'If the Tigers are ever going to be elite again, you figure it's going to come with this wonderfully experienced team… It's going to be a lot of fun finding out what the Tigers can do. And there's a chance they prove this hater wrong.' Connelly's SP+ model slots Clemson eighth nationally, with a league-best 36.8% chance of winning at least 11 games. His numbers show the Tigers return more proven production than anyone — 85% on offense, 76% on defense — setting up a chance to quiet any doubts this fall. Contact us @Clemson_Wire on X, and like our page on Facebook for ongoing coverage of Clemson Tigers news and notes, plus opinions.
USA Today
02-06-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
Re-ranking all 18 Big Ten football 2025 conference schedules from hardest to easiest
Re-ranking all 18 Big Ten football 2025 conference schedules from hardest to easiest The 2025 college football season is inching closer, and as we cross the 100-day barrier until the season begins, you can feel anticipation start to build. Even in the ever-changing world of college football, where teams are changing conferences and players are jumping from team to team like never before, one constant will always remain: fans complaining that their team's path to the finish line is more difficult than anyone else's. A year ago, major questions faced the Oregon Ducks as they moved from the Pac-12 Conference to the Big Ten Conference. Would they be able to hold up against the elevated competition? Dan Lanning's team answered that right away, winning the Big Ten in their first season as conference members. With marquee conference wins over Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Washington, the Ducks left little doubt that they were the best regular-season team. But will they be able to prove the same in 2025? More than that, how conducive is their schedule to establishing such a thing? This is where the conversation about strength of schedule comes in. Who does Oregon play this year, and how tough will it be to get back to the conference title game? How does their path compare to other teams in the Big Ten, and what can this tell us about who might end up in Indianapolis at the start of December? Those are things best answered by our strength of schedule rankings. Prior to the spring football season, we went through this exercise, using a combination of ESPN's SP+ rankings and combined opponent score to place a numerical value on each team's slate of games. From there, we were able to see who had the toughest path forward. After spring ball, though, the SP+ numbers got an update from ESPN's Bill Connelly. Therefore, it is worth revisiting our SOS rankings to see how much things changed as well. Here is a reminder on how things work: The equation used to compare each slate is simple. First, we take each team's SP+ rating to find a numerical value for every game. The higher that number, the tougher the matchup. We then add every opponent's SP+ rating together to find a total opponent score. That large number is divided by the number 12 (total games) to find the average opponent score — a number that can then be compared to the SP+ leaderboard to find, on average, what a team will face each week. (Note: Home and away is not factored into the model. Also, Football Championship Subdivision opponents are not listed in SP+. Every FCS opponent was assessed a "minus-15' rating, akin to the No. 118 team in the Football Bowl Subdivision.) With that, here is an in-depth look at the Big Ten's strength of schedule ranking entering the 2025 season: Total Opponent Score: 41.6 Average Opponent Score: 3.46 (akin to the 47th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): USC (11.0) Purdue (-10.0) Ohio State (29.5) Washington (6.4) Rutgers (4.7) Maryland (-1.1) Wisconsin (7.2) Northwestern (-6.1) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 18 Conference games against Ohio State, USC, and Washington could be challenging, but outside of that, Illinois should be able to handle the rest of the slate with relative ease, especially in the non-conference. 17. Michigan Wolverines Total Opponent Score: 45.6 Average Opponent Score: 3.80 (akin to the 47th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Nebraska (8.9) Wisconsin (7.2) USC (11.0) Washington (6.4) Michigan State (-0.2) Purdue (-10.0) Northwestern (-6.1) Maryland (-1.1) Ohio State (29.5) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 17 Any year in the Big Ten when you can miss two of the three big dogs — Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State — is favorable, and with Michigan only drawing the Buckeyes of that trio, it bodes well. If the QB situation is what it's cracked up to be under Bryce Underwood, the Wolverines could make some noise. That early-season game against Oklahoma should be interesting. Get more Michigan news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire 16. USC Trojans Total Opponent Score: 67.4 Average Opponent Score: 5.61 (akin to the 40th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Purdue (-10.0) Michigan State (-0.2) Illinois (14.3) Michigan (21.5) Nebraska (8.9) Northwestern (-6.1) Iowa (11.4) Oregon (24.7) UCLA (2.9) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 10 A non-conference game against Notre Dame is always going to be tough, but USC does manage to skip both Ohio State and Penn State during the season. Games against Oregon, Michigan, and Illinois could prove challenging, but we will see if Lincoln Riley's revamped squad is up to the task. Get more USC news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire 15. Minnesota Golden Gophers Total Opponent Score: 70.2 Average Opponent Score: 5.85 (akin to the 40th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Rutgers (4.7) Ohio State (29.5) Purdue (-10.0) Nebraska (8.9) Iowa (11.4) Michigan State (-0.2) Oregon (24.7) Northwestern (-6.1) Wisconsin (7.2) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 12 I expect Minnesota to be an average-to-above-average team in the conference this year, so they should be able to deal with a lot of the teams on their schedule, outside of the like of Ohio Stae, Oregon, and maybe Nebraska. 14. Nebraska Cornhuskers Total Opponent Score: 73.1 Average Opponent Score: 6.09 (akin to the 40th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Michigan (21.5) Michigan State (-0.2) Maryland (-1.1) Minnesota (6.0) Northwestern (-6.1) USC (11.0) UCLA (2.9) Penn State (27.7) Iowa (11.4) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 13 Missing Ohio State and Oregon is great for Nebraska, but Penn State late in the year could be challenging, and an early game against Michigan could provide an early test for Dylan Raiola and his teammates. If the QB is everything he's cracked up to be, the Cornhuskers should be able to fare well with this slate of games, though. Get more Nebraska news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire 13. Maryland Terrapins Total Opponent Score: 74.9 Average Opponent Score: 2.87 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Wisconsin (7.2) Washington (6.4) Nebraska (8.9) UCLA (2.9) Indiana (12.2) Rutgers (4.7) Illinois (11.3) Michigan (21.5) Michigan State (-0.2) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 15 Maryland draws a nice schedule, missing out on Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State, with Michigan being the toughest game on the slate. Of course, the Terrapins also aren't one of the better teams in the conference, so it remains hard to forecast a successful season despite the relative ease of the schedule. Total Opponent Score: 76.9 Average Opponent Score: 6.40 (akin to the 39th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Illinois (14.3) Iowa (11.4) Oregon (24.7) Michigan State (-0.2) UCLA (2.9) Maryland (-1.1) Penn State (27.7) Wisconsin (7.2) Purdue (-10.0) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 16 Can Curt Cignetti bounce back from his College Football Playoff season in 2024? The non-conference slate is easy, but games against Oregon and Penn State will prove to be difficult, especially in Autzen Stadium. Outside of those two, though, I don't see many roadblocks. 11. Oregon Ducks Total Opponent Score: 80.5 Average Opponent Score: 6.70 (akin to the 38th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Northwestern (-6.1) Penn State (27.7) Indiana (12.2) Rutgers (4.7) Wisconsin (7.2) Iowa (11.4) Minnesota (6.0) USC (11.0) Washington (6.4) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 8 Oregon's non-conference schedule should be pretty straightforward, and missing the likes of Ohio State and Michigan helps in conference play. Still, games against Penn State and Washington on the road will be challenging, while Indiana and USC get the Ducks at Autzen. Get more Oregon news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire 10. Ohio State Buckeyes Total Opponent Score: 80.7 Average Opponent Score: 6.72 (akin to the 38th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Washington (6.4) Minnesota (6.0) Illinois (14.3) Wisconsin (7.2) Penn State (27.7) Purdue (-10.0) UCLA (2.9) Rutgers (4.7) Michigan (21.5) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 4 A season-opener against Texas is going to be thrilling to watch for Ohio State, but their conference slate is very manageable, with the biggest games coming against Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan at the end of the year. Get more Ohio State news, analysis and opinions on Buckeyes Wire 9. Penn State Nittany Lions Total Opponent Score: 88.0 Average Opponent Score: 7.33 (akin to the 35th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Oregon (24.7) UCLA (2.9) Northwestern (-6.1) Iowa (11.4) Ohio State (29.5) Indiana (12.2) Michigan State (-0.2) Nebraska (8.9) Rutgers (4.7) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 14 Games against Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana could prove tough for Penn State, but outside of those three, there aren't many that give you pause, especially if James Franklin can get his veteran squad playing at a similar caliber as they did a year ago. Get more Penn State news, analysis and opinions on Nittany Lions Wire 8. UCLA Bruins Total Opponent Score: 88.3 Average Opponent Score: 7.35 (akin to the 36th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Northwestern (-6.1) Penn State (27.7) Michigan State (-0.2) Maryland (-1.1) Indiana (12.2) Nebraska (8.9) Ohio State (29.5) Washington (6.4) USC (11.0) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 5 An opening game against Utah is tough for UCLA, and they get some solid teams in conference play as well, with Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, and USC all through the regular season. Get more UCLA news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire 7. Washington Huskies Total Opponent Score: 93.7 Average Opponent Score: 7.80 (akin to the 35th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Ohio State (29.5) Maryland (-1.1) Rutgers (4.7) Michigan (21.5) Illinois (14.3) Wisconsin (7.2) Purdue (-10.0) UCLA (2.9) Oregon (24.7) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 11 What version of Washington can we expect this year? A return to their normal form makes this a very manageable schedule, with tough games against Oregon and Ohio State. However, another year like 2024 and games against Washington State, Michigan, and Wisconsin qualify as tough as well. Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire 6. Purdue Boilermakers Total Opponent Score: 99.5 Average Opponent Score: 8.29 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): USC (11.0) Illinois (14.3) Minnesota (6.0) Northwestern (-6.1) Rutgers (4.7) Michigan (21.5) Ohio State (29.5) Washington (6.4) Indiana (12.2) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 2 The non-conference game against Notre Dame really makes this schedule tougher than it seems, as the conference slate isn't too brutal without Oregon or Penn State on the schedule. 5. Michigan State Spartans Total Opponent Score: 100.5 Average Opponent Score: 8.37 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): USC (11.0) Nebraska (8.9) UCLA (2.9) Indiana (12.2) Michigan (21.5) Minnesota (6.0) Penn State (27.7) Iowa (11.4) Maryland (-1.1) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 9 At this point in the list, we're getting to pretty tough schedules. The non-conference is easy here, but games against USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa all could be a challenge for the Spartans. Get more Michigan State news, analysis and opinions on Spartans Wire Total Opponent Score: 102.2 Average Opponent Score: 8.51 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Rutgers (4.7) Indiana (12.2) Wisconsin (7.2) Penn State (27.7) Minnesota (6.0) Oregon (24.7) USC (11.0) Michigan State (-0.2) Nebraska (8.9) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 6 A non-conference game against Iowa State won't be easy, and facing Indiana, Penn State, and Oregon in a five-game stretch could prove difficult for the Hawkeyes, followed by games against USC and Nebraska not long after. Get more Iowa news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire Total Opponent Score: 107.0 Average Opponent Score: 8.91 (akin to the 34th-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Oregon (24.7) UCLA (2.9) Penn State (27.7) Purdue (-10.0) Nebraska (8.9) USC (11.0) Michigan (21.5) Minnesota (6.0) Illinois (14.3) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 7 Facing Oregon and Penn State in a three-game stretch is not going to be easy, and games against Nebraska, USC, Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois will all be tough down the stretch for Northwestern. 2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights Total Opponent Score: 108.9 Average Opponent Score: 9.07 (akin to the 33rd-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Iowa (11.4) Minnesota (6.0) Washington (6.4) Oregon (24.7) Purdue (-10.0) Illinois (14.3) Maryland (-1.1) Ohio State (29.5) Penn State (27.7) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 3 The deadly trio of Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State on the schedule is going to be tough for any team to handle. Outside of those three, Rutgers has to deal with Iowa, Washington and Illinois, which doesn't set up for a great season. 1. Wisconsin Badgers Total Opponent Score: 124.9 Average Opponent Score: 10.4 (akin to the 32nd-best team in the country) Conference Schedule (with SP+ rating): Maryland (-1.1) Michigan (21.5) Iowa (11.4) Ohio State (29.5) Oregon (24.7) Washington (6.4) Indiana (12.2) Illinois (14.3) Minnesota (6.0) Previous SOS Ranking: No. 1 A non-conference game against Alabama is always going to be tough, with conference games against Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Washington. Good luck, Luke Fickell. Get more Wisconsin news, analysis and opinions on Badgers Wire Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
USA Today
26-05-2025
- Sport
- USA Today
ESPN updates its SP+ rankings. Where did Ohio State football land?
ESPN updates its SP+ rankings. Where did Ohio State football land? ESPN's Bill Connelly recently updated its college football SP+ Rankings and you are going to like where Ohio State is ranked. But first, a quick primer on what goes into making the sausage for this well-known model: Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as humanly possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up about two-thirds of the projections formula. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health. (One other reminder: SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and along those lines, these projections aren't intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather.) All of that out of the way, you'll be happy to know that the Buckeyes sit high atop the SP+ Rankings at No. 1 with an overall score of 29.5. Broken down further, OSU is ranked No. 7 in offense (39.6), No. 2 in defense (10.1), No. 11 in special teams (0..3). So, what other teams are up in the top ten? Ohio State is just above Alabama (27.9), Penn State (27.7), Georgia (26.9), Texas (26.4), Notre Dame (24.9), Oregon (24.7), Clemson (23.3), LSU (22.1), and Michigan (21.5). These things always change -- not so much from here to the preseason -- but once games get underway. Ohio State has a lot of unknowns, but still a lot of returning talent that should be good enough to jump in and be the next man up. We'll keep an eye on these and other rankings as we traverse the offseason and head towards fall camp. Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.
