Key trends in charts: How the US is performing under Trump
The early months of US President Donald Trump's second term have already led to global chaos, particularly because of reciprocal tariffs. While US GDP contracted in the first quarter, a recession may still be a few months away. Nevertheless, Trump's approval ratings have taken a hit, bond yields and uncertainty have surged, and the economic outlook has dampened. A stronger US jobs report brought some optimism, but there are questions about whether it will last.
The impact of Trump's policies, especially his flip-flops on reciprocal tariffs, is yet to fully kick in. However, the US economy already suffered a setback in the first quarter of the year. GDP contracted 0.3% in January-March, the first such decline since the first quarter of 2022. Since the contraction was mainly on account of a surge in imports in the run-up to the reciprocal tariffs announcement, Q2 may see a rebound, pushing a potential recession to later in the year.
Nevertheless, fears of reciprocal tariffs led to a sharp surge in imports in the first quarter as companies and consumers rushed to buy foreign goods. Imports soared 41.3% from the preceding quarter, which pulled GDP growth into negative territory. Since imports are subtracted from the GDP calculation, their impact is usually negative, but Q1 saw a sharper negative contraction. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the contribution of imports was -5.0 percentage points in the first quarter as opposed to +0.27 in Q4 2024 and -0.82 in the same quarter last year.
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44%:
That's the percentage of Americans who approved of the way Donald Trump handled his job as president in April, down from 47% at the start of his second term in January, according to the presidential approval ratings poll conducted by Gallup. Other presidents who served a second term had a higher approval rating in the same month of their first year. Barack Obama had a 49% approval rating in April 2013, George W. Bush had a 49% rating in April 2005, and Bill Clinton had a 54% rating in April 1997.
While stock markets around the world crashed after the reciprocal tariff announcement and have since recovered to some extent, movement in US bond yields made investors especially nervous. Bond selling accelerated after the tariffs came into effect, pushing government borrowing costs higher.
The benchmark 10-year bond yield jumped sharply and was as high as 4.48% on 11 April before seeing a partial correction. The surge in bond yields, along with a declining dollar index and rising gold prices, has raised questions over the US's safe-haven status.
It's not just investors – US citizens in general are more concerned about the country's economic prospects. According to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center from 7-13 April, 45% of Americans believe the US's economic situation will worsen over the coming year, up from 37% in February. While Republicans remain more optimistic, negative outlook is on the rise, with 15% of Republicans/Republican-leaning respondents expecting a worse economic outlook in April, up from just 9% in February.
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177,000
: That's the number of non-farm jobs the US labour market added in April, exceeding the Dow Jones estimate of
133,000
and bringing some cheer amid the gloom. As a result, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% during the month, remaining near historic lows. While strong jobs data has brought some optimism, economists warn that trade and tariff uncertainties could still take a toll on the economy and lead to a weaker job market as companies adjust their hiring plans in response to trade tensions.
Uncertainty has become a dominant theme in economic reporting during Trump's second term. Analysis by Policyuncertainty.com reveals a dramatic surge in its US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which analyses policy-related economic uncertainty based on the number of news articles across a set of newspapers that contain words related to economic uncertainty. Since Trump took office on 20 January, the index has jumped from 193 to 786. It scaled a recent new peak of 975 on 5 April.
Several countries are expected to feel the impact of the US's policies. International agencies have cut India's GDP growth projections for 2025-26 at least once since January. India's growth relies heavily on the information technology (IT) sector and exports to the US. A historical analysis of GDP growth in the US and India shows similar economic momentum, which suggests India is not completely insulated from US economic trends.
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Hindustan Times
18 minutes ago
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Time of India
29 minutes ago
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Hindustan Times
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Will visa delays and border fears keep international fans away from the Club World Cup in the US?
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Chaotic U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activities and President Donald Trump's travel bans aren't exactly reassuring international fans, either. Trump's policies appear to have already impacted travelers. The National Travel and Tourism Office released data showing visitors to the U.S. from foreign countries fell 9.7% in March compared to the same month last year. The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics has predicted that international arrivals would decline 9.4% this year. The U.S. Travel Association, a nonprofit group that represents the travel industry, has urged the Trump administration to improve such things as visa processing and customs wait times ahead of a series of big sporting events on U.S. soil, including the Club World Cup beginning June 14, the Ryder Cup later this year, next summer's World Cup, and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. Association President Geoff Freeman said, for example, that the wait in Colombia for a visa interview appointment is upwards of 18 months — already putting the 2026 World Cup out of reach for some travelers. He said his organization is working with the White House's World Cup Task Force to address issues. 'They recognize how important this event is: success is the only option. So we're eager to work with them to do whatever it is we need to do to ensure that we can welcome the millions of incremental visitors that we think are possible," Freeman said. "But these underlying issues of visa and customs, we've got to address.' Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at a House Committee on Foreign Affairs hearing last month, suggested consular staff could be put on longer shifts and that artificial intelligence could be used to process visas. 'We want it to be a success. It's a priority for the president,' said Rubio. But the Trump administration may have added to the concerns for international visitors by issuing a ban on travelers from 12 countries, with restrictions on travel from nine more countries. Iran, one of the countries named, has qualified for the World Cup. The proclamation included an exemption for 'any athlete or member of an athletic team, including coaches, persons performing a necessary support role, and immediate relatives, traveling for the World Cup, Olympics, or other major sporting event as determined by the secretary of state.' It did not mention fans. There are signs current immigration policies were already impacting soccer fans and spurring worries over safety. A Latin American supporters group in Nashville stayed away from a recent Major League Soccer game because of ICE activity in the city. The city's Geodis Park is set to host three Club World Cup matches. Danny Navarro, who offers travel advice to followers on his social media platforms under the moniker TravelFutbolFan, said the World Cup Task Force announcement did not allay fears about travel, especially when Vice President JD Vance said, 'We want them to come. We want them to celebrate. We want them to watch the game. But when the time is up, they'll have to go home. Otherwise, they'll have to talk to Secretary Noem.' That insinuated fans visiting the United States for the World Cup could use it to stay in the country, which is nonsensical, Navarro maintained. For many countries, fans traveling to the World Cup — an expensive travel plan with hiked flight and hotel prices — are broadly viewed as higher-spending and lower-risk for host nation security planning. Navarro put the onus on FIFA. 'They must know that there is an anxiety among international travelers wanting to come in. They must know there's an anxiety among the U.S. fan base that is multicultural and wanting to go to all these places. Are they going to? Are they going to be harassed by ICE?' Navarro said. 'There is just a lot of uncertainty, I would say, too much uncertainty, that the fan base doesn't want to think about." It remains to be seen how outside factors will ultimately impact the Club World Cup, which is not the global spectacle or draw that the World Cup is. Ticket sales, which were based on a dynamic pricing model, appear to be slow, with lowered prices from earlier this year and a slew of recent promotions. For a match between Paris Saint-Germain and Botafogo at the Rose Bowl on June 19, there were wide swaths of available seats going for $33.45. FIFA created an incentive program that says fans who buy two or more tickets to the Club World Cup 'may' be guaranteed the right to purchase one ticket to the World Cup next summer. Navarro said economic uncertainty and fears of inflation may make fans hesitant to spend their money on the Club World Cup — when the more desirable World Cup is looming. In some host cities, there's little sign the Club World Cup is happening. A light rail station in Seattle had a lone sign advertising the event. The Seattle Sounders are among the teams playing in the tournament. Hans Hobson, executive director of the Tennessee State Soccer Association, suggested part of the problem is that, unlike the national teams that play in the World Cup, some of the club teams playing in Nashville are just not known to U.S. fans. 'It's not leagues that they watch. If it was the Premier League or the Bundesliga or something like that, then they'd go, 'Oh, I know players there. Let's go check it out,' Hobson said. There were tickets available to LAFC's match against Esperance Sportive de Tunisie in Nashville on June 20 for $24.45. FIFA President Gianni Infantino has traveled to several host cities to gin up enthusiasm. He has promised "the world will be welcomed.' But some say the United States isn't exactly rolling out the red carpet for visitors in the current climate. 'I could see trepidation for anyone looking to travel to the U.S. at this current political climate,' said Canadian national team coach Jesse Marsch. 'So it's a sad thing, I think, that we have to talk about visiting the U.S. in this way but I think everybody has to make decisions that are best for them and that fit best with what's going on in their life and their lifestyle.' Sports Writer Teresa Walker contributed to this report ___ soccer: /hub/soccer
