Racewatch: Shayne O'Cass's race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday
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CONVERGENT (8) was a strange run here two weeks ago insofar as he didn't look at all comfortable on the Heavy 10 but he picked up late and got going again when it was all over. It will be nowhere near as bad this time. Keep the faith. John Sargent knows how to win a Midway and VETWELVE (7) is having a second crack at one after a really easy win beating a subsequent easy winner at Kembla. PRETTY TAVI (12) is pretty reliable. MONKHANA (10) has come back well; 1 500m at home, second-up, ticks boxes.
BET: CONVERGENT (8) each-way.
SHIPSHAPE (9), a grandson of 5-times Group 1 winner Divine Madonna, has raced in five Highways all up, the last two were both 'closing' fifths here at Rosehill Ran OK at Forbes in a Benchmark 82 on Cup day. Has some each-way appeal at the odds. POWDER MAN (4) has been unlucky in his two winter Highways. Tommy Berry sticking from that last (enormous) one here on July 5. LIGHT INFANTRY (7) ran against a Koscisuskzo horse in his August 2 Highway!
BET: SHIPSHAPE (9) each-way, box quinella 4,7,9,17.
For what it is worth, I have REFLECT (10) pegged as a future Guineas, even Oaks filly. She is by So You Think out of a granddaughter of NZ 2000 Guineas winner Foxwood. Fourth dam is the mother of Gurner's Lane and Sovereign Red. By the way, that fourth dam is Taiona and she is also the fourth dam of Mr Brightside and Ka Ying Rising! Wow. NINJA (4) was an 11-lengths winner in a 4-horse Maiden at Kembla. Got that little touch of class about him this one. KARINSKA (3) and WITHOUT PEER (2) will have admirers for good reason.
BET: REFLECT (10) to win (best bet).
This is the clash of the Peter Snowden stablemates that didn't happen the first time; I speak of course of TUILERIES (8) versus AMREEKIYAH (9). You could make the case for either one. I could be horribly wrong in my assessment but I have Tuileries ahead of Amreekiyah only because I have suspicion Tuileries is the safer option at 1400m. It's not a two-horse race by any means. I kept coming back to SUNSHINE LAW (7) and asking, why can't she do it again? The answer, yes she can.
BET: TUILERIES (8) to win.
SKYHOOK (1) was right up there with the very top 2YO colts last year, not just colts either, given he started $7.50 in the Golden Slipper. It is true sometimes good 2YOs don't make good 3YOs but I can't see how a Written Tycoon (replica) out of such a great family as his, won't train on. He trialled like he's ready and able to take up from where he left off. Speaking of trials; if you bet only on what we saw at the trials, PALLATON (5) would be a $1.50 shot! He will have fans but it will be interesting to see how many have been burnt before line-up again. Big respect for BLITZBURG (2).
BET: SKYHOOK (1) to win, exacta 1 to beat 5.
KAPAKIRI (17), the son of Gosford Gold Cup winner Oriental Lady, was $17 to $21 first-up in a 1400m race on the Kensington track on July 16 but ran more like a big firmer than a bit drifter. Keep in mind that his wins are from 1800m up to 2400m so he is within his strike-distance. His new (Godolphin) stablemate AMUSING (14) is on a hat-trick. She is 2 from 3 at Rosehill and is bred for 2000m and more. HASTY HONEY (4) is '112' which is the good news; the bad news is the draw (potentially).
BET: KAPAKIRI (17) each-way.
Been a big fan and admirer of OUR GOLD HOPE (6) since her awesome debut win at Kembla. By the end of the 2023/24 season, she was a Group 1 runner-up in the Queensland Oaks. Her 4YO season was full of highlights – and some bad luck too. Trials are good. A good judge once decreed that backing horses first-up over 1400m off a 3200m Cup run was a good system (and it is). Say hello to BIRDMAN (4) here who has plenty of residual fitness from his Manion, Chairman's and Sydney Cup autumn finale. PALMETTO (3) has been trialling the house down.
BET: OUR GOLD HOPE (6) each-way.
BATTLETON (3) is way, way too good a horse to be 50/1, let alone $12 the place. Granted he is '0085' this preparation but he has been coming through some really strong races and as often the case, his pattern (and sometimes bad luck) has conspired against him. One proviso; Soft and not Heavy on Saturday. DENMAN STAR (12) probably couldn't have won without a good draw and a pull in the weights; well, he gets both on the weekend with box four and 55.5kg. CAPTAIN FURAI (10) has the right numbers. BROSNAN (7) is no good first-up but is good – period.
BET: BATTLETON (3) each-way, (the Bjorn) Daily Double 1st Leg 3, 2nd Leg 3.
When Sheikh Mohammed was divvying out the string, I bet a lot of trainers were hoping they would pick up POLYGLOT (7). Michael Freedman was the 'winner', this will be the grandson of Forensics' first run under new management but the same jockey, more or less – James McDonald is 2 rides, one win, one second plus a stunning trial win here on July 29. Nepotism's half brother and Black Caviar's nephew THEBLADE (14) is a gifted horse. He's drawn better than Polyglot and he's got less weight too.
BET: POLYGLOT (7) to win, quinella 7,14, box trifecta 1,4,7,14.
This an old fashioned Get Out Stakes and good on the TAB for the spread of prices but I was shocked to see DISNECK (3) at $18 on Wednesday and that is even before we know what he will SP. Put on a good speed and given this horse a clear and unimpeded run at them on a fair track and he can tip them all out. Ditto a lot for BAUHINIA (17) who will be a lot higher rated mare than a 78 by the end of the spring. GERIATRIX (7) was underwhelming in his two summer runs for Chris Waller but expect a lot better from him, starting here and now.
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