Earnings Estimates Stabilize: A Closer Look
Note: The following is an excerpt from this week's Earnings Trends report. You can access the full report that contains detailed historical actual and estimates for the current and following periods, please click here>>>
Here are the key points:
Total S&P 500 earnings for the June quarter are expected to be up +5.2% from the same period last year on +3.8% higher revenues, with a broader and greater pressure on estimates relative to other recent periods since the June-quarter got underway.
Q2 earnings estimates for 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors have come down since the quarter got underway, with Aerospace and Utilities as the only sectors whose estimates have moved higher.
Q2 earnings estimates for the Tech and Finance sectors, the two largest contributors to aggregate S&P 500 earnings, accounting for 51% of all index earnings, have also been cut since the quarter got underway. The quarter started with significant pressure on Tech sector estimates, but the negative revisions trend notably stabilized in the subsequent weeks.
Q2 earnings for the 'Magnificent 7' group of companies are expected to be up +11.8% from the same period last year on +11.2% higher revenues. Excluding the 'Mag 7' contribution, Q2 earnings for the rest of the index would be up +3.4% (vs. +5.2%).
The Q2 earnings season will really get going once JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kick-off the June-quarter reporting cycle for the Finance sector. But officially, the Q2 earnings season will have gotten underway much before that, as we and others count results from companies with fiscal quarters ending in May as part of the Q2 earnings season.
Using that definition of Q2, we have already seen such results from Costco (
COST
), AutoZone (
AZO
), and Oracle (
ORCL
), and will have seen almost two dozen such results by the time the big banks report their results.
Making Sense of Earnings Expectations for 2024 Q2 and Beyond
The start of Q2 coincided with heightened tariff uncertainty following the punitive April 2 nd tariff announcements. While the onset of the announced levies was eventually delayed for three months, the issue has understandably weighed heavily on estimates for the current and coming quarters, particularly in the first few weeks after the April 2 nd announcement.
The expectation at present is for Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index to increase by +5.2% from the same period last year on +3.8% higher revenues. The chart below shows how Q2 earnings growth expectations have evolved since the start of the year.
While it is not unusual for estimates to be adjusted lower, the magnitude and breadth of Q2 estimate cuts are greater than we have seen in the comparable periods of other recent quarters.
Since the start of the quarter, estimates have come down for 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with the biggest declines for the Transportation, Autos, Energy, Construction, and Basic Materials sectors. The only sectors experiencing favorable revisions in this period are Aerospace and Utilities.
Estimates for the two largest earnings contributors to the index – Tech & Finance – have also declined since the quarter began.
Tech sector earnings are expected to be up +12% in Q2 on +10.5% higher revenues. While these earnings growth expectations are materially below where they stood at the start of April, the revisions trend appears to have notably stabilized lately, as we have been flagging in recent weeks. You can see this in the sector's revisions trend in the chart below.
This stabilizing turn in the Tech sector's revisions trend can be seen in expectations for full-year 2025 as well, as the chart below shows.
The two charts above show that estimates for the Tech sector have stabilized and are no longer under the type of downward pressure experienced earlier in the quarter. The Tech sector is much more than just any another sector, as it alone accounts for almost a third of all S&P 500 earnings.
The Earnings Big Picture
The chart below shows expectations for 2025 Q2 in terms of what was achieved in the preceding four periods and what is currently expected for the next three quarters.
The chart below shows the overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index on an annual basis.
While estimates for this year have been under pressure lately, there haven't been a lot of changes to estimates for the next two years at this stage.
Stocks have recouped their tariff-centric losses, although the issue has only been deferred for now. While some of the more dire economic projections have eased lately, there is still plenty of macro uncertainty that will likely continue to weigh on earnings estimates in the days ahead, particularly as we gain visibility on the tariffs question.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners Up
Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Free Stock Analysis Report
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Competitor Insights Key companies in health data interoperability market report include: - Cerner Corporation - Epic Systems Corporation - Meditech - Allscripts Healthcare Solutions - athenahealth - InterSystems Corporation - Philips Healthcare - GE Healthcare - Oracle Health Sciences - NextGen Healthcare - IBM Watson Health - Microsoft Health - McKesson Corporation - Siemens Healthineers - Infor Healthcare Key Developments In March 2025, 1upHealth sets a new benchmark for health data interoperability with the launch of its new 1up Platform. The new platform, built on a modern lakehouse architecture, is designed to deliver 'Health Data On Demand'. It offers real-time data access, scalable management, and advanced analytics to help healthcare organizations enhance operational efficiency, care quality, and patient outcomes. In March 2025, Epic Systems Corporation unveiled industry-leading Genomics, AI, and interoperability solutions at the HIMSS 2025 Conference. 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Market Segmentation Deployment Model Insights Cloud-Based On-Premises Component Insights Hardware Software Services Type Insights Electronic Health Records (EHR) Health Information Exchange (HIE) Interoperability Solutions Integration Platforms Interoperability Level Insights Foundational Interoperability Structural Interoperability Semantic Interoperability End User Insights Healthcare Providers Healthcare Payers Pharmaceutical Companies Research Institutions Regional Insights North America U.S. Canada Latin America Brazil Argentina Mexico Rest of Latin America Europe Germany U.K. Spain France Italy Russia Rest of Europe Asia Pacific China India Japan Australia South Korea ASEAN Rest of Asia Pacific Middle East GCC Countries Israel Rest of Middle East Africa South Africa North Africa § Central Africa Get Customization on this Report: About Us: Coherent Market Insights leads into data and analytics, audience measurement, consumer behaviors, and market trend analysis. From shorter dispatch to in-depth insights, CMI has exceled in offering research, analytics, and consumer-focused shifts for nearly a decade. With cutting-edge syndicated tools and custom-made research services, we empower businesses to move in the direction of growth. We are multifunctional in our work scope and have 450+ seasoned consultants, analysts, and researchers across 26+ industries spread out in 32+ countries. Media Contact Company Name: Coherent Market Insights Contact Person: Mr. Raj Shah Email: Send Email Phone: +1-252-477-1362 Address: 533 Airport Boulevard, Suite 400, Burlingame, CA 94010, United States City: Burlingame State: California Country: United States Website:
