Twins takeaways: Splitting in the rain, progress for Correa, Buxton and Wallner and streak MVPs

New York Times

22-05-2025

MINNEAPOLIS — After three cold, dreary and rain-soaked days at Target Field, the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians managed to complete 15 innings Wednesday to salvage two games from a scheduled three-game series between American League Central rivals.
Monday's series opener was suspended after three innings with the Twins leading 2-1, and rain washed away any chance of playing Tuesday, so action resumed Wednesday afternoon with starter Joe Ryan on the mound in what was technically the first relief appearance of his career.
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Ryan held the Guardians to one run over his first five innings, but couldn't finish the game with a 5-2 lead, giving up a double and a walk to begin the ninth inning. Jhoan Duran came in for the final three outs, but instead left with the game tied 5-5 following two hits and a wild pitch.
Kody Clemens, perhaps mercifully recognizing no one in the sparse crowd needed to witness extra innings in a suspended game that started two days earlier, especially with another, nine-inning game on deck, delivered a walk-off double in the bottom of the ninth inning for a 6-5 victory.
Kody Clemens walks it off for the @Twins! pic.twitter.com/yxgbvNGZ8Z
— MLB (@MLB) May 21, 2025
'We had to grind it out basically the whole day,' manager Rocco Baldelli said. 'Obviously, it's cool out, everyone is soaked. Nothing is going to come real easy. Every play on the field was going to be some sort of a challenge, with some wet ball or the rain coming in.'
It was the 10th straight home win for the Twins, their most since winning 15 straight at the Metrodome in 2006. But that streak lasted about three hours, ending with a 5-1 loss to the Guardians in a far less eventful but no less wet second game in which the Twins' banged-up lineup totaled just three hits.
'I think in something like seven or eight of my 10 starts it's been raining,' Game 2 starter Chris Paddack said. 'We're looking for some sunshine here. I feel like it's even been traveling with us on the road trips, the rain delays. We need some sunshine and 75 degrees, and we're going to be just fine.'
Indeed, the Twins have won 14 of their last 16 games and have Thursday off ahead of a three-game series at Target Field versus another divisional rival, the Kansas City Royals, with whom they're tied for second place. And if the weather forecast is to be believed, they might even play all three games.
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Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are eligible to return from the seven-day concussion injured list Friday, but they will first need to pass a concussion assessment test.
Correa and Buxton were each diagnosed with a concussion after colliding last Thursday in Baltimore. Correa immediately left the game, and Buxton exited one inning later, with both entering MLB's concussion protocol.
Byron Buxton and Carlo Correa collide on a shallow fly to center, Buxton somehow hangs on to the ball pic.twitter.com/XzA3imOkBd
— CJ Fogler 🫡 (@cjzero) May 15, 2025
Wednesday morning, Twins head athletic trainer Nick Paparesta described Buxton as 'a little bit behind' Correa's progress due to the center fielder's previous concussions, as well as his history of migraine headaches that can present with similar symptoms, including blurred vision and fatigue.
'Any time you've had a previous concussion, you're more susceptible to another concussion or worse symptoms from that concussion,' Paparesta said. 'So he's taking a little longer to move progressively, but (Wednesday) we're going to start some baseball stuff with him, which is a great sign.'
Paparesta noted Correa's symptoms 'are basically all completely gone' and the shortstop has been participating in baseball activities, but there are still several boxes to check — and neurological tests to pass — before receiving MLB approval to be activated from the IL.
'But from a baseball standpoint,' Paparesta said, 'we're in a good spot.'
Out since April 15 with a left hamstring strain, Matt Wallner was slated to begin a rehab assignment Wednesday with Triple-A St. Paul. He was in the Saints' lineup, hitting leadoff and starting at designated hitter, but the game was rained out at CHS Field.
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Wallner is expected to spend the remainder of this week rehabbing with the Saints, at which point the Twins will either extend his rehab stint into next week or activate him from the injured list for the three-series, 10-game trip that starts Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Prior to the injury, Wallner was one of the few Twins hitters who got off to a strong start this season, batting .263/.373/.474 in 18 games.
Now that the winning streak is over, two games shy of the World Series-winning 1991 club's all-time team record of 15, which players contributed the most to help the Twins get 13 victories in a row?
Wins Above Replacement measures all hitting, pitching, baserunning and fielding value relative to a 'replacement-level' player at the same position, quantifying how many wins each player added to the team.
Here are the Twins' top 13 individual WAR totals during the 13-game streak, according to FanGraphs' calculations:
Buxton was on fire for the first 11 games of the streak, hitting .282/.383/.667 with four homers, 10 RBIs and 10 runs scored, leading the team in all three categories before the collision with Correa sidelined both players for the final two games (and beyond).
Clemens repeatedly came through with clutch hits, including three homers, batting .360/.467/.760 with eight RBIs over 10 games to go from scrap-heap pickup to key regular. Harrison Bader hit .345/.424/.552 with three steals in 10 games and also made several highlight-reel plays defensively.
Starting pitchers Ryan (0.75 ERA), Paddack (1.86), Pablo López (2.65) and Bailey Ober (2.87) combined for a 2.11 ERA in 64 innings, and Duran went 6-for-6 converting save chances with a 0.00 ERA in eight innings.
Win Probability Added takes a different approach than WAR by measuring how each play in a game changed the team's expected winning percentage within the situational context it occurred, with the caveat that WPA covers hitting, pitching and baserunning but not fielding.
Here are the Twins' top 13 individual WPA totals over the 13-game streak:
In all, 17 players contributed 0.25 WPA or better during the streak, whereas only two players (Simeon Woods Richardson and Ty France) had negative 0.25 WPA or worse. That's a pretty good recipe for sustained success over a two-week period. Almost everyone delivered in a clutch spot at some point.
Woods Richardson was the lone Twins pitcher with a negative WPA, which speaks to how consistently great the starters and relievers were for a 13-game period in which the staff posted a 2.06 ERA in 118 innings. Pitching carried the Twins during the streak, just as it's carried them all season.
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Duran fares well in WAR because a 0.00 ERA looks good in any context, but WPA views him as especially valuable because his work came in late-game, high-leverage situations. Slamming the door on tight victories carries a ton of weight in WPA, so the closer sits atop the leaderboard.
And the quartet setting him up also thrived. Louis Varland (0.00 ERA), Cole Sands (0.00), Griffin Jax (2.35) and Danny Coulombe (0.00) combined for a 0.75 ERA in 24 innings, each totaling at least 0.40 WPA while working a ton of close games.
DaShawn Keirsey Jr.'s walk-off single on May 11 against the San Francisco Giants — the eighth win — was the play with the biggest WPA boost during the streak, accounting for the entirety of his 0.37 WPA. And two of the five biggest WPA hits were Clemens' homers in Boston and Baltimore.
Merging the WAR and WPA figures for a total 'value' estimate, the MVPs of the 13-game winning streak were:
1. Clemens (1.26)
2. Bader (1.18)
3. Buxton (1.16)
4. Paddack (1.14)
t5. Duran (1.04)
t5. Ryan (1.04)
And the beauty of baseball is that a 13-20 team can go on a 13-game winning streak in which the MVP was a 29-year-old journeyman acquired one week earlier for cash considerations after being cut by his previous team.
Known largely for being Roger Clemens' son to this point, Kody Clemens is becoming a helluva story on his own.
(Photo of Kody Clemens: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)