Colts mailbag: What does Anthony Richardson's completion percentage need to be for success?
The Colts are in the third week of the annual ramp-up to the season and are now down to just one final practice at the Grand Park Sports Complex. That will take place Thursday, when the Packers come to town for a joint practice ahead of Saturday's second preseason game.
Readers had plenty of questions. These were leftover from last week's mailbag.
COLTS MAILBAG: Could a two-QB system work with Anthony Richardson Sr. and Daniel Jones?
(To take part in these mailbags, follow me on X @NateAtkins_ or on Bluesky, where I put out the calls; or email longer questions to natkins@gannett.com.)
Let's get to it:
Question: "What does the staff absolutely need to have in pass efficiency from AR? 60%?" -- Trev via Bluesky
Answer: This is a fascinating conversation because although an accuracy jump from Anthony Richardson is absolutely necessary, we have to stay realistic to not only where he is right now but where his ceiling is in this area given the stylistic nature of this player.
Cam Newton and Josh Allen have always been good comparisons for Richardson on the highest-percentile outcomes because of the similarities of build, rushing ability and arm strength. What you sacrifice naturally to be able to uncork a ball 65 yards in the air while falling backward is some touch and consistency.
Allen's jumps in accuracy are historic and, at this point, wholly unrealistic for Richardson if only accounting for the timeline difference. Allen was able to make those gains after his rookie season because he stayed healthy and gained reps; Richardson is already in Year 3 and was at 47.7% last season and 50.6% for his career.
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But I think Newton's career is instructive. We know he hit the absolute peak in 2015, when he won the MVP, but his career fluctuated with moments of just so-so accuracy. His career mark across 11 seasons was 59.9%, and he was at 59.8% in that MVP year.
That means a player of this skill set can be a monster if he can stay on the field, hit the explosive rushing and passing plays and just offer accuracy that a coach can work with.
Since Newton is the highest-end outcome realistic right now, I think it's fair to adjust it this way:
I think the Colts coaching staff would love it if Richardson could get to 55% this year.
Of course, he'll need to get higher than that in time, but he is just 22, and it would represent major progress. That'd be an 8% jump from last year's limited sample, or 3% less than Allen went from in Year 2 to Year 3, when he exploded for an MVP runner-up season.
If Richardson can do that, we'll see a sizable jump on the 6.9 career yards per attempt that he's produced even with a completion rate just a hair over 50%. In league circles, 7.0 is considered sort of a base line of adequate quarterback play, with 7.5 and above reaching a top-10 kind of level.
More completions in the short and intermediate range -- think check-downs to DJ Giddens or wide-open flares and outs to Josh Downs or screens to Tyler Warren or basic middle-of-the-field throws to Warren like they've displayed in training camp -- should close the gap.
At 55%, if he maintains an average throw depth of close to 10 yards, it'll round out the overall package. He was at an NFL-high 11.2 last season, when the offense was too boom-or-bust, and he led the NFL with 14.4 yards per completion.
That number has to go down if he takes more layup throws to significantly boost the 47.7% accuracy, but deep shots should still be a healthy part of his game with Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell and seeing single-high safety looks with the double threat of him and Jonathan Taylor in the backfield.
The accuracy jump is not all he needs to do, of course. He has to stay on the field first and foremost, and he has to cut down on the 21 turnovers in 11 games last year that cut drives even quicker than those missed throws.
But I'm convinced that at 55% completions, with his rushing and explosive passes, we'd have a clear above-average quarterback like Newton was in just his average seasons.
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