
Scheduled Commercial Banks further improved their liquidity positions
The aggregate gross-non-performing-asset ratio of the 46 banks may marginally edge up from 2.3% in March 2025 to 2.5% in March 2027 under the baseline scenario and to 5.6% and 5.3% under the adverse scenario of geopolitical risk and adverse scenario of global growth slowdown respectively.
The results revealed that the aggregate capital adequacy ratio of major scheduled commercial banks may marginally dip to 17% by March 2027 from 17.2% in March 2025, under the baseline scenario. It may decline to 14.2% under the adverse scenario of geopolitical risks and to 14.6% under the adverse scenario of global growth slowdown.

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Mint
an hour ago
- Mint
Why QED-backed Leo1 needs a sharp turnaround to stabilise its ship
Mumbai: QED-backed edu-fintech Leo1 is making sweeping cutbacks as it pivots away from its core lending business, seeking to stabilise operations and grow in new segments, according to multiple people familiar with the matter. The company has undertaken significant rationalisation, shutting down its first loss default guarantee or FLDG model, scaling back underperforming business lines, and laying off staff. Leo1's restructuring comes amid a broader slowdown in the edtech industry, including edu-fintech models. Companies started diversifying revenue streams and revisited business models after the pandemic-era boom faded, and investors grew sceptical about their sustainability. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) crackdown on new-age lending fintechsalso came as a major blow for edu-fintech companies. 'Since February, the firm has let go of around 25–30 people, mostly field and lending operations staff, in an attempt to turn profitable," a person with direct knowledge of the development told Mint. Leo1 now employs just over 50 people, primarily in sales and technology, a steep drop from over 300 staff at its peak in 2022. Founded in 2015 as Financepeer, the company had raised $31 million Series B funding led by venture capital firms QED Investors and Aavishkaar Capital. It offers prepaid and debit cards, a community platform for students, and rewards and payment services for educational institutions. Its backers also include Ardent Ventures, DMI Sparkle Fund, 9Unicorns, LC Nueva AIF, and Maxar VC. To date, it has raised about $41 million, and was last valued at $108 million, as per Tracxn. Leo1, QED and Avishkaar did not comment on the story. Pivot from lending Lending, once Leo1's core offering, has been gradually phased out starting 2024, after the company struggled to operate under changes in the FLDG rules first initiated in 2022, one of the people said. FLDG is a risk-sharing arrangement in digital lending where a fintech company (a loan service provider) guarantees to compensate a regulated entity for a predetermined portion of loan defaults. After the June 2023 amendments to the FLDG model, lending aggregators have become less attractive. With the FLDG guarantee now capped at 5%, lower than before, NBFCs see limited upside in sourcing loans through aggregators. Moreover, amid declining volumes and a lack of scale, margins also took a hit for such aggregators. 'Margins on loans were only 2–3%, while first-loss default guarantees (FLDGs) cost around 5%, making it unviable without lending from its own book," said another person in the know, requesting anonymity. Though company is still operating the lending model, it makes up for less than 10% of the business. RBI rules on digital lending and FLDGs squeezed aggregator-led lending models, forcing many to pivot or scale back. Leo1's financials show a decline in revenue alongside mounting losses post the regulatory changes. After peaking at ₹13 crore in FY2021-22, revenue has steadily declined to ₹11.4 crore in FY2022-23 and further to ₹9.2 crore in FY2023-24, according to Tracxn. Net losses widened from ₹21.1 crore in FY2021-22 to ₹64.7 crore in FY2022-23, and ₹48.2 crore in FY2023-24. The company has since refocused on a SaaS-style model, onboarding colleges, training administrators, and enabling them to use Leo1's dashboard to manage student accounts and distribute cards, without maintaining a heavy on-campus staff presence. One of the persons quoted above, however, said the company has started to see revenue increasing in the new model since FY25 clocking about ₹11-12 crore. It has also become profitable at a monthly level since the start of FY26, largely aided by cost cuts, they added. The company is yet to file its FY25 financials with the MCA. Next bets The company now plans to introduce investment products, including digital gold, mutual funds, insurance, and loans, to broaden revenue streams, said the first person quoted above. This will put it in competition with a growing pool of wealth-tech players such as Stable Money, Dezerv, and Neo Wealth. Leo1 is betting on capturing 18–25-year-old customers early, while they are in college, to build long-term banking relationships. Leo1 currently claims to partner over 13,000 schools, and colleges, including IIT Bombay, IIHMR University, Jain University and Poornima University, among others. To scale further, Leo1 is in talks to raise a bridge round in the second half of this year. "Capital is not the key reason for stopping growth, it was the right path to explore. They need to find the right business model that balances growth with break even," said the second person quoted above. The funding amount could be in the $4-5 million range. While the company has been approached for potential mergers or acquisitions, it is not actively pursuing an exit at the momen, the person added.


The Hindu
4 hours ago
- The Hindu
The Sisyphean quest to bolster manufacturing in India
78 Years of Freedom The Narendra Modi government's quest to bolster the domestic manufacturing sector is not the first time a government has tried this. In fact, the manufacturing sector has been the focus of government policy — in one way or the other — ever since 1956, to relatively modest success. At the time of Independence or thereabouts, the Indian economy looked very different from its current state both in terms of size as well as composition. At the time, agriculture was the overwhelmingly dominant driver of the economy, contributing about half of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as per data with the Reserve Bank of India. The nascent manufacturing sector, on the other hand, made up about 11% of the GDP. Now, the services sector has taken over the dominant role vacated by agriculture, while manufacturing has remained largely where it was. The first Five Year Plan (1951-56) focused on the idea of increasing domestic savings, since it was presumed that higher savings would directly translate into higher investments. This policy, however, ran into a fundamental problem: investments could not materially increase as the country did not have a domestic capital goods producing sector. The second Five Year Plan (1956-61), based on the ideas of PC Mahalanobis, and successive Plans sought to address this by increasing investments in the capital goods producing sectors themselves. The idea was to increase government investment in capital goods production, while the micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) would cater to the consumer goods market. As the economist and professor Aditya Bhattacharjea noted in a paper published in Springer Nature: 'With long-run growth being seen as the means for reducing widespread poverty, the model provided an intellectual justification for increasing investments in the capital goods sector of a labour-abundant country.' So, what followed was that growth rates of both investment in and output of the machinery, metals, and chemicals industries outpaced those of consumer goods industries. The Mahalanobis model did not incorporate specific industry-wise policies, but it had a few broad themes that came to characterise India's industrial policy over the country's first three decades since Independence. The first and most obvious theme was the huge role of the public sector. The feeling at the time was — not unlike what the Modi government felt in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic — that private sector investment would not be picking up the load for some time, and so the public sector would have to do the heavy lifting. The 1948 Industrial Policy Resolution (IPR) reserved the production of arms and ammunition for the Union government, and new investments in sectors as diverse as iron and steel, aircraft, ships, telephone, telegraph and wireless equipment were kept as the exclusive domain of central public sector enterprises. The 1956 IPR, which came after the historic Avadi session of the Indian National Congress in 1955, expanded the reserved list to 14 sectors. The driving ideology was that the government and the public sector would assume the 'commanding heights' of the economy. The second and equally significant theme of this thought process was the use of licensing as a means to ensure that scarce resources were allocated to priority sectors. Third, the belief was that the domestic industry would need to be protected from international competition, and this protection took the form of high tariffs — something U.S. President Donald Trump seems to have a problem with even today — and import licensing. By 1980, the share of manufacturing in India's GDP had grown to about 16-17%. According to some economists like Pulapre Balakrishnan, the real growth in the manufacturing sector took off from here, and not from the 1991 liberalisation, as is often assumed. This, they said, was due to a few policy changes enacted by the government of the time: allowing up to 25% automatic expansion of licensed capacities, allowing manufacturing licences to be used to produce other items within the same broad industrial category, and significant relaxation of price controls on cement and steel. The 1991 reforms and the resultant end of the 'licence raj', the opening up of the economy to the private sector and international competition further helped things, with the manufacturing sector growing strongly and contributing a steady 15-18% of a rapidly-growing GDP till about 2015. Steep fall That year saw a marked change, however, with the share of manufacturing in GDP consistently falling for the next decade. A major reason for this change was the non-performing assets (NPA) crisis in the banking sector. Profligate lending by banks in the 2009-14 period led to a build-up of bad loans, which came to light in 2015-18 following an Asset Quality Review of the banking sector. Such was the crisis and its fallout that bank lending to large industry virtually dried up. This, coupled with the loan-fuelled over-capacity that had been created during the 2009-14 period meant that companies did not need to invest in additional capacity to meet demand, and could not find adequate credit even if they wanted to invest. Underpinning all of this was the increased reliance on imports from China, which virtually converted large parts of Indian manufacturing into assembly and repackaging units. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic also severely hampered both demand and investments in India. The Modi government's Make in India efforts, thus, could not prevent the share of manufacturing in GDP falling from 15.6% in 2015-16 to 12.6% in 2024-25 — the lowest share in 71 years. Another problem faced by the Modi government, something all previous governments also faced, was that a lot of the reforms to drive manufacturing were needed at the State level. So, while the Union government has put in place the framework for land and labour reforms that could potentially increase the scale of Indian manufacturing, they are held up as most State governments are not cooperating. The services sector, on the other hand, has gone from strength to strength on the back of the IT boom. So, where services made up 37% of the GDP in 1950, this grew to 42% by 1996-97. Thereafter, the acceleration was rapid, with the sector now making up nearly 58% of the GDP. So, 78 years after Independence, the manufacturing sector remains an also-ran in India's growth story, despite fervent attempts by government after government. The services sector, on the other hand, has blossomed outside the government's focus.


Economic Times
5 hours ago
- Economic Times
Bank of Azad Hind: When Netaji gave India its own currency
Synopsis In 1944 Rangoon, Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose established the Bank of Azad Hind to fund his liberation campaign, demonstrating India's financial capabilities before independence. Capitalised by the Indian diaspora, the bank became the Provisional Government's treasury, issuing its own currency and supporting various war efforts. Image: Netaji Research Bureau It is April 1944 in Rangoon. In a vacant bungalow off Jamal Avenue, carpenters are at work turning bare rooms into a working bank. Just a week earlier, this was an empty space. Now, it is about to become the headquarters of a bank and no, this one is not the story of how the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was birthed. This bank was under the authority of the Provisional Government of Free India, led by Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose. Five years before the RBI became fully independent in 1949, Bose launched the Bank of Azad Hind to fund his liberation campaign and to demonstrate that India could run its own financial institutions before it had even won its political freedom. Also Read: Independence Day 2025: Tryst with growth — India's economic journey from Nehru to now The short but strong saga of this bank has been well drafted in S.A. Ayer's book, "Unto Him a Witness". Ayer, who served in Bose's cabinet, wrote, 'At this stage, Netaji established the first National Bank of Azad Hind outside India in Rangoon on the 5th of April, 1944, to finance the war of India's liberation.' The 'stage' Ayer refers to was a tense moment. Bose was preparing to leave for the front in the Imphal–Kohima campaign. Japanese and Burmese authorities were sceptical about establishing a bank in wartime, fearing political complications. Some colleagues worried about capital, stability, and the timing. But Bose was unmoved and unbothered. 'Have a bank I must, and that too within a few days, before I leave for the front. I must open the bank and then go to the front,' Ayer quoted Bose as came quickly from the Indian diaspora in Southeast Asia. Ayer recounted how four Indians stepped forward to fund the initial days of the newly founded bank, with a vision of free India. 'Perhaps, you may be surprised to hear that four Indians have come forward to find between themselves all the required capital for the bank. They are prepared to write off the capital, if necessary, though I am quite sure they won't have to. In any event, they are ready to assign to the Provisional Government of Azad Hind eighty per cent of the annual profits.'This show of support ended Japanese resistance. 'That silenced the Japanese pretty effectively,' Ayer notes. What followed was a full and renewed case of dedication. Also Read: India's space race: From bullock carts to Gaganyaan'How one man, Yellappa, and the other four patriotic Indians worked like Trojans night and day for a week and converted a vacant building into a full-fledged bank — with an authorised capital of rupees fifty lakhs is a romantic story that deserves a chapter all by itself,' Ayer Fay, in his book "The Forgotten Army", recounts how Netaji's appeal in Rangoon for rupees 5 million triggered an extraordinary outpouring of support from the Indian community in Burma and Malaya, ultimately swelling the Azad Hind Bank's reserves to about 215 million rupees – more than 150 million rupees from Burma media reports and later historical accounts identify some of the most prominent donors: Abdul Habeeb Yusuf Marfani, a Gujarati businessman in Rangoon, is said to have pledged his entire fortune of roughly 1 crore rupees; the Betai family, Hiraben and Hemraj, reportedly contributed 50 lakh rupees in cash and assets; and Iqbal Singh Narula famously offered silver equal to Netaji's own Bank of Azad Hind soon became the treasury of the Provisional Government. 'The funds of the Provisional Government were banked with this bank,' Ayer wrote. It accepted donations 'in cash as well as in kind' from traders, shopkeepers, and plantation workers. These resources funded soldier pay, procurement, propaganda, and relief efforts. Also Read: UPI and beyond: The great Indian banking leap The bank even issued its own currency, denominated in rupees, which circulated in INA-controlled territories, a symbolic assertion of monetary sovereignty even if it carried no value in British himself served as chairman. 'The National Bank of Azad Hind was established in Rangoon in April 1944. I know a man called Dina Nath. He was one of the Directors of the Bank. I was the Chairman of the Bank,' he institution's life was brief. It closed by the end of World War II or precisely after the INA's retreat and the fall of Rangoon. But decades later, it resurfaced in an unexpected way. Following the Modi government's decision in 2016 to declassify files related to Bose, the finance ministry began receiving unusual petitions. Several borrowers wrote offering to repay their loans using Azad Hind Bank currency notes, some promising the bearer sums as high as ₹1 lakh. 'We have received representations from some individuals who want the currency issued by Azad Hind Bank or similar variants to be recognised as legal tender,' a government official told ET at the Reserve Bank of India, citing Section 22 of the RBI Act, 1934, rejected the requests, saying it had no record of such an entity and that only the RBI has the sole authority to issue banknotes. Some petitioners pushed back, arguing the RBI 'itself was formed by the British' and that the government should take a fresh Ayer's view, the bank was never merely a repository of funds for Bose: Perhaps it was a pledge of a nation to free itself, having 'our own currency and our own bank' alongside an army and a government.