Rupee ends lower at 85.59/$ as firm crude oil prices weigh

Business Standard

3 days ago

The Indian rupee weakened after a day of gains, as higher crude oil prices weighed on the currency despite a weak dollar index.
The domestic currency ended 7 paise lower at 85.59 against the greenback, after closing at 85.52 on Monday, according to Bloomberg. The weakness in the currency came after the unit snapped a four-day losing streak.
Reports indicate that the rupee's implied volatility has been declining. The one-month implied volatility has fallen to 5 per cent, down from a peak of over 7 per cent recorded in the second week of May.
Meanwhile, the dollar index fell to its lowest since 2023 after the Manufacturing Imports Index and Manufacturing PMI slipped in the US. The Trump administration's renewed protectionist stance, unpredictable tariff threats, and tax policies have rattled institutional investors, causing a broad-based selloff in US equities and debt, according to Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex Advisors.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.21 per cent at 98.91. The index is likely to remain under pressure, facing strong resistance near the 99.80–100.00 zone and gradually declining toward 98, followed by 97.50, according to Pabari.
Amid rising trade tensions triggered by Donald Trump's tariff hikes, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday projected that US economic growth will slow to 1.6 per cent in 2025 — down from 2.8 per cent the previous year.
During the week, all eyes will be on the RBI's six-member monetary policy committee (MPC), which is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent. The committee, which will meet for three days from June 4, is scheduled to announce its policy review on Friday.
India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to a 3-month low of 57.6 due to rising prices and weak exports, Pabari noted. However, fourth quarter GDP grew 7.4 per cent, driven by strong consumption and a surge in construction and manufacturing, he said. "Technically, the rupee is likely to trade in a range with 85.90-86.00 acting as a strong resistance, while 85.00-85.20 will act as a support."
In commodities, crude oil prices extended Monday's 3 per cent gains after the Opec+ agreed to increase production in July. Brent crude price was up 0.17 per cent to $64.74 per barrel, while WTI crude prices were 0.27 per cent higher at 62.69, as of 3:43 PM IST.