Europe Isolated: Qatar Threatens LNG Embargo Against The EU

Forbes

2 days ago

Qatar has warned that it may stop exporting liquefied natural gas to the European Union in response to the Brussels corporate sustainability due diligence directive, which entered into force on July 25th, 2025. The CSDDD requires large companies to remedy environmental harm and human rights concerns (such as forced labor) in their supply chains or incur fines. The rules apply to both EU and non-EU companies with a yearly turnover greater than €450 million. Notably, the rules will not take full effect until 2027 and will be implemented gradually through 2029 based on company size.
Qatari outrage over the directive reflects the country's reliance on fossil fuel exports, systemic exploitation of foreign workers, and spotty international reputation. In a letter to Belgium's government, Qatar's Minister of Energy, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who is also President and CEO and Deputy Chairman of state-owned QatarEnergy, wrote that if 'further changes are not made to CSDDD, the State of Qatar and QatarEnergy will have no choice but to seriously consider alternative markets outside of the EU for our LNG and other products.' In his letter, he pushed back on the European directive's climate goals, affirming that Doha has no plans to achieve net zero emissions anytime soon.
To meet its needs for gas without having to rely on Russia or Qatar, EU countries may look to buying more LNG from the U.S. or other suppliers or revisit their nuclear energy policy.
Qatar's History of Labor Rights Abuses
Qatar's response to the CSDDD was likely spurred not only by the outsized role of fossil fuels in its economy, but also by its ongoing neglect of safe labor practices. When Qatar won the bid in 2010 to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the next decade cast a harsh light on Qatar's treatment of the migrant workers building the stadiums and infrastructure as well as constructing the country's first subway system to handle the crowds of anticipated spectators.
In 2022, World Cup Chief Hassan al-Thawadi confirmed that 400-500 migrant workers died working on construction connected to the tournament. In reality, the death toll was probably much higher. Workers were also subjected to unpaid wages, forced labor, dangerously long hours, and other types of abuse. Despite promised reforms and the official abolition of the highly exploitative kefala system in 2016, the Global Slavery Index 2023 estimated that 6.8 people per every 1,000 of Qatar's 2021 population of 2,818,060 were living in modern slavery, hardly a boon for the Emirate closely controlled by the Al Thani clan for generations
For now, at least, Qatar is publicly expressing concern only regarding the CSDDD provisions requiring businesses to implement climate transition plans.
Effects on European Energy
This is not the first time Qatar has threatened to cut off LNG exports to Europe over the CSDDD. In December 2024, Al-Kaabi said in reference to the associated penalties, 'If the case is that I lose 5 percent of my generated revenue by going to Europe, I will not go to Europe... I'm not bluffing.'
If Doha follows through on its threats, the consequences will be negative for European energy security, but EU members can replace the Qatari supply with product from the U.S., Nigeria, Algeria, and Mozambique. While Qataris could likely find alternate buyers, particularly in Asia, their insistence on long-term contracts with restrictive resale provisions may push Asian buyers, especially the Japanese and South Koreans, to avoid Qatari LNG.
The share of Qatari LNG imports in the EU's total gas portfolio has increased as Europe continues to seek alternatives to Russian LNG in the wake of Putin's second invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the first quarter of 2024, Qatari LNG accounted for 9.1% of the EU's total imports, and in the first quarter of 2025, this number increased to 10.8%. In 2023, QatarEnergy entered into large LNG contracts with three major companies to supply gas to Europe. It agreed to supply Shell, Eni, and TotalEnergies with several million tons of LNG per year for the next 27 years, providing energy to the Netherlands, Italy, and France, respectively.
Europe's reliance on foreign LNG stems from policies across several of its states prioritizing renewables to the exclusion of more reliable forms of baseload energy like nuclear, leaving foreign sources of LNG a key component of the continent's energy mix. This, in turn, has rendered the EU vulnerable to shocks from powers ideologically and strategically opposed to the West. Qatar is directing hundreds of millions of dollars into US academic institutions and think tanks, is the key funder of the global radical Islamist movement the Muslim Brotherhood, and a key sponsor of the Hamas terrorist movement in Gaza and the West Bank. Doha also has close relations with the Taliban and played a key role in facilitating its return to power.
Besides Qatar, the EU's two largest LNG suppliers are Russia and the U.S. Russian LNG cannot replace another 10.8% of imports, especially given EU efforts to phase out Russian gas. Whether Europe could turn to the U.S. for more LNG remains to be seen, but the recently announced $750 billion EU-U.S. trade deal signals the potential for more supply to come from America.
The Way Forward for the EU
The EU is stuck between its own policy priorities, strict regulatory framework (CSDDD as an example), and its reliance on Qatari and other imported gas. The EU leadership may find it more ideologically consistent to stick to the CSDDD rules and phase out continued gas trade with Qatar. Shifting and diversifying its energy policy is strategically sound in the long term. By looking to nations like the United States, a trade partner more aligned with the CSDDD's values, and re-examining and reverting to nuclear energy, the EU can carve out a path toward energy security without caving to adversarial, oppressive and anti-democratic actors like Qatar and Russia.