Jack Ciattarelli's Chances of Beating Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey: Polls

Newsweek

30-06-2025

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Jack Ciattarelli is unlikely to beat Representative Mikie Sherrill in the race to become the next governor of New Jersey, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted for the American Principles Project (APP) by Cygnal, showed Sherrill with a 7 percentage point lead against her Republican rival some five months before Election Day.
The Context
New Jersey is one of two states holding gubernatorial elections this year, the other being Virginia. Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, a Democrat, has served two terms and cannot run for reelection.
On June 10, Ciattarelli, a Republican former state assemblyman, and Sherrill, a Democratic U.S. congresswoman, emerged as their parties' nominees following primary elections.
A composite image of Representative Mikie Sherrill at a news conference in Washington, D.C., on February 13, 2024, and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli at Rider University in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, on February 4.
A composite image of Representative Mikie Sherrill at a news conference in Washington, D.C., on February 13, 2024, and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli at Rider University in Lawrenceville, New Jersey, on February 4.
AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, Mike Catalini, file
While New Jersey has voted for a Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992, the GOP has recently enjoyed increasing success, with Trump growing his vote share by 10 points in 2024. This was the best showing by a GOP presidential nominee in two decades.
What To Know
The poll of 400 likely general election voters showed that 50 percent of voters would vote for Sherrill, while 43 percent would vote for Ciattarelli.
The survey, conducted between June 19 and 20, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.36 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a SurveyUSA poll of 785 adults previously found that 51 percent of likely voters said they would support Sherrill in the November general election, compared to 38 percent who said they would back Ciattarelli. The poll was conducted between May 28 and May 30.
An internal poll from the Ciattarelli campaign, conducted by National Research and reported by the New Jersey Globe, showed Sherrill with a narrow lead—45 percent of the vote to Ciattarelli's 42 percent.
What People Are Saying
The Ciattarelli campaign told Newsweek earlier this month: "Make no mistake that this is a 'CHANGE' election and Ciattarelli is the CHANGE candidate. A majority of New Jersey voters (54 percent) believe that the state is heading in the wrong direction, while only 33 percent believe things in New Jersey are going in the right direction. Notably, Ciattarelli leads Sherrill by a whopping 72 percent to 14 percent margin among those wrong-track voters, and an even stronger 87 percent to 6 percent among voters who want a governor who will 'shake up Trenton.'"
Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, previously told Newsweek: "It is certainly possible that New Jersey could elect a Republican governor in November. Governor Murphy was the first Democrat to be reelected in more than 40 years, and in that same span, three Republican governors were elected and reelected."
What Happens Next
The gubernatorial election in New Jersey is scheduled to take place on November 4.