French PM François Bayrou expected to survive confidence vote
François Bayrou, the French prime minister, is almost certain to survive a vote of no confidence on Wednesday after the move that threatened to topple the government – for the second time in two months – lost the support of socialists and the far right.
The decision by the Socialist party (PS) not to support the censure motion infuriated leftwing partners in the New Popular Front (NFP) and could torpedo the alliance that collectively won the most seats in the last general election.
The hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) submitted two no confidence motions on Monday immediately after Bayrou used a constitutional clause known as '49.3' to pass key budget bills in the Assemblée Nationale without a vote.
On Tuesday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the LFI leader, said the PS decision to not support the motions spelled the end of the alliance.
'The New Popular Front has one party less,' Mélenchon said. Formed before last year's general election, the NFP was made up of LFI, the PS, the greens (EELV) and the communists (PCF).
Éric Coquerel, an LFI MP and president of the assembly's finance commission, accused the PS of 'betrayal'.
With one year to go before the municipal elections and two years to go before the next presidential election, political analysts believe the left has little choice but to remain united if it wishes to see off Marine Le Pen's far right.
Leftwing MP Alexis Corbière, thrown out of LFI after disagreeing with Mélenchon before last year's general election, said the PS decision was 'a political and strategic error', but stopped short of criticising the socialists.
'Should we be insulting each other, calling each other traitors? I don't think so. If there have been alliances, it's because of the threat from the far right. We need this united front of a united and popular left,' he said.
The far-right National Rally kept everyone guessing on Tuesday over whether it would support the no confidence motions, but party president Jordan Bardella hinted that it would probably not.
'It's a bad budget,' he told broadcaster Europe 1/CNews. But 'we need a budget', he added. 'We need to avoid uncertainty because many of our fellow citizens ... are extremely worried about possible long-term instability.'
Without the support of the PS and RN, the no confidence motions will not gain the 289 votes necessary to pass, and the government's two bills will pass into law.
Bayrou's travails, however, are not over. He will use the 49.3 to push through two more social security bills in the next week, sparking two more censure motions from LFI. The PS has said it intends to lodge its own no confidence motion – possibly next week – over Bayrou's comment, deemed xenophobic by many, that the French were 'feeling submerged by immigration'.
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