Deadly storm Erin to reach hurricane status in just HOURS as spaghetti models reveal path up the US East Coast
Erin, which is currently gathering strength in the Atlantic, is projected to become a Category 4 storm by Monday at the latest as it approaches Bermuda.
Meteorologists warned that the hurricane would bring dangerous surf and coastal flooding to millions in the US, from the Carolinas to New England.
However, the forecast could get even worse if Erin defies the current spaghetti models, which have the storm spinning away from the East Coast as it moves north later next week.
A spaghetti model shows the different possible paths a tropical storm or hurricane might take, based on predictions from multiple weather computer programs.
Each line represents one model's guess about where the storm could go. If the lines are close together, it means most models agree on the path, and the prediction is more certain.
In Erin's case, most spaghetti models have the strengthening storm veering away from the US, but at least two potential paths take the hurricane much closer to the Carolinas and Virginia.
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva warned: 'Erin has not yet started to curve north. The longer Erin tracks west before turning north, the odds increase of impacts potentially reaching the East Coast.'
According to the latest forecasts, Erin will officially become a hurricane Friday afternoon, as its winds exceed 75 mph for the first time since the storm developed.
However, AccuWeather forecasters said it'll quickly ramp up into a Category 3 storm by Saturday, bringing sustained winds of more than 110 mph as it passes Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend.
The AccuWeather team projected that Erin should reach its peak Monday afternoon, as its winds surpass 130 mph, entering Category 4 status for at least a day as it begins to turn towards Bermuda.
If the hurricane doesn't turn at this point, it could put Erin on course to make landfall in the US, which hasn't happened since Hurricane Beryl struck Texas in July 2024.
'Be vigilant if you're going to an East Coast beach next week. Be aware of rip current warning signs and only swim in areas with lifeguards on duty,' DaSilva added in a statement.
The East Coast should start feeling the effects of the storm by the beginning of next week.
Meteorologists said the first states Erin will impact will likely be North Carolina and Virginia, where beachfront properties could be at risk.
Rough surf, rip currents, coastal flooding, and beach erosion are all expected to be issues for residents and vacationers in the area as soon as Monday or Tuesday.
Coastal flooding is expected to be a major risk for all states from the Carolinas to New England next week (Stock Image)
As the storm moves over cooler ocean waters and encounters stronger wind shears, Erin is expected to drop to Category 2 strength as it travels along the New England coast next Thursday and Friday, with winds between 96 and 110 mph.
Cooler water provides less energy for hurricanes, and wind shear can disrupt their structure, reducing their overall strength.
However, states like Maine, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts are still projected to see heavy rain and wind later next week.
'North Carolina's Outer Banks, Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Massachusetts face a higher risk of direct and potentially severe tropical storm or hurricane conditions than much of the southern Atlantic, mid-Atlantic and northern New England coasts,' the AccuWeather team revealed.
Offshore, the hurricane could cause massive waves in the Atlantic that range between 50 and 100 feet high.
That kind of ocean activity could put cruise ships and cargo freighters in serious danger. For smaller ships, a 100-foot wave could be life-threatening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted an 'above average' season that will likely result in more named storms than there were in 2024, when 18 such storms were tracked.
In May, NOAA predicted up to 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes affecting the US this year. The National Hurricane Center noted that approximately 400 people died during 2024's hurricane season, the deadliest season since 2005.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
5 hours ago
- Reuters
Magnitude 4.9 earthquake strikes near east coast of Australia, EMSC says
Aug 16 (Reuters) - A magnitude 4.9 earthquake struck near the east coast of Australia, on Saturday, the European Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC) said. The quake was at a depth of 10 km (6.21 miles), the EMSC said. The EMSC previously said the quake was of 5.7 magnitude.
The Guardian
8 hours ago
- The Guardian
‘Hellish': heatwave brings hottest nights on record to the Middle East
Jordan and Israel have suffered through their hottest nights on record, with nocturnal temperatures in the Levant well above levels that scientists consider 'hellish'. Temperatures on Monday night did not go below 35C (95F) in Ghor es-Safi and Aqaba in Jordan, while in the capital, Amman, they stayed above 31.8C. In Israel, meteorologists reported a record-breaking nighttime minimum on Tuesday night of 36C in Sedom. 'It's like you're walking in a sauna,' said Fayha al-Shibli, a climate scientist at the University of Jordan, who lives in Amman. Doctors fret about hot nights because they compound the damage done by heatwaves, preventing worn-out bodies from resting after the stress of a scorching day and contributing to a vast but overlooked death toll. In many European countries, tropical nights refer to temperature minimums above 20C, while in Spain, which is more familiar with extreme heat, meteorologists describe nights above 25C as equatorial or torrid. In recent years, they have begun to informally refer to those above 30C as 'hellish'. Overnight temperatures in parts of Jordan and Israel this week remained a full 5C hotter. Shibli said 2025 had already broken records for nighttime heat intensity in many parts of the country, though not for length or the number of events. The climate scientist added that she and her children were suffering, but that she 'thanked God' for technology such as air conditioning, which she has in her home, office and car. 'The people that can't handle it are the people without air conditioning, and those who work on the street, like cleaners and builders,' she said. Daytime temperatures also reached deadly peaks, with highs of close to 50C in Israel and the Palestinian territories. The Israel Meteorological Service said the highest temperature recorded on Wednesday was 49.7C in Gilgal kibbutz, a settlement in the occupied West Bank, setting a historical record in the Jordan Valley. Aqaba, a port on the Red Sea, broke Jordan's national heat record with a daytime maximum of 49.6C. Temperatures in Gaza were cooler but still soared above 40C. Unrwa, the UN agency for Palestinians, said on Thursday the heat was 'making an already desperate situation far worse' by increasing dehydration. It added that limited electricity and fuel – amid bombardments and forced displacement – meant there was no relief from the heat. Sign up to Down to Earth The planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essential after newsletter promotion Health ministries across the Middle East issued warnings to stay in the shade and drink water. 'Extreme temperatures – well above 40C during the day and above 30C by night – aren't unknown in the region, but this is certainly unusual,' said Nick Lee, an assistant forecast manager at MetDesk. He added that some of the locations experiencing extreme heat were at low altitudes – such as Ghor es-Safi on the shores of the Dead Sea, which is 350m below mean sea level – and that this contributed to the high values recorded. 'The same way that temperature typically decreases as you go higher, when you get to these extreme low altitudes you can see much higher temperatures than at sea level,' he said. Heatwaves have grown hotter, longer and more common as fossil fuel pollution has trapped sunlight and baked the planet. Shibli said heatwaves can be more dangerous if they are much hotter than what people have recently experienced. '[People] can adapt to gradual changes, but can be caught off-guard by a sudden jump.'
The Guardian
12 hours ago
- The Guardian
‘Hellish': heatwave brings hottest nights on record to the Middle East
Jordan and Israel have suffered through their hottest nights on record, with nocturnal temperatures in the Levant well above levels that scientists consider 'hellish'. Temperatures on Monday night were never lower than 35C (95F) in Ghor es-Safi and Aqaba, in Jordan, while in the capital, Amman, they did not drop below 31.8C. In Israel, meteorologists reported a record-breaking nighttime minimum on Tuesday night of 36C in Sedom. 'It's like you're walking in a sauna,' said Fayha al-Shibli, a climate scientist at the University of Jordan, who lives in Amman. Doctors fret about hot nights because they compound the damage done by heatwaves, preventing worn-out bodies from resting after the stress of a scorching day and contributing to a vast but overlooked death toll. In many European countries, tropical nights refer to temperature minimums above 20C, while in Spain, which is more familiar with extreme heat, meteorologists also describe nights above 25C as equatorial or torrid. In recent years, they have begun to informally refer to those above 30C as 'hellish'. Overnight temperatures in parts of Jordan and Israel this week remained a full 5C hotter. Shibli said 2025 had already broken records for nighttime heat intensity in many parts of the country, though not for length or the number of events. The climate scientist added that she and her children were suffering, but that she 'thanked God' for technology such as air conditioning, which she has in her home, office and car. 'The people that can't handle it are the people without air conditioning, and those who work on the street, like cleaners and builders,' she said. Daytime temperatures also reached deadly peaks, with highs of close to 50C in Israel and the Palestinian territories. The Israel Meteorological Service said the highest temperature recorded on Wednesday was 49.7C in Gilgal kibbutz, a settlement in the occupied West Bank, setting a new historical record in the Jordan Valley. Aqaba, a port on the Red Sea, broke Jordan's national heat record with a daytime maximum of 49.6C. Temperatures in Gaza were cooler but still soared above 40C. Unrwa, the UN agency for Palestinians, said on Thursday the heat was 'making an already desperate situation far worse' by increasing dehydration. It added that limited electricity and fuel – amid bombardments and forced displacement – meant there was no relief from the heat. Sign up to Down to Earth The planet's most important stories. Get all the week's environment news - the good, the bad and the essential after newsletter promotion Health ministries across the Middle East issued warnings to stay in the shade and drink water. 'Extreme temperatures – well above 40C during the day and above 30C by night – aren't unknown in the region, but this is certainly unusual,' said Nick Lee, assistant forecast manager at MetDesk. He added that some of the locations experiencing extreme heat were at low altitudes – such as Ghor es-Safi on the shores of the Dead Sea, which is 350m below mean sea level – and that this contributed to the high values recorded. 'The same way that temperature typically decreases as you go higher, when you get to these extreme low altitudes you can see much higher temperatures than at sea level,' he said. Heatwaves have grown hotter, longer and more common as fossil fuel pollution has trapped sunlight and baked the planet. Shibli said heatwaves can be extra dangerous if they are much hotter than what people have recently experienced. '[People] can adapt to gradual changes, but can be caught off-guard by a sudden jump.'
