OPEN// Sisi back home after attending Russia's World War II Victory Day parade
More than 20 foreign dignitaries attended this year's Russian annual parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
President Sisi had begun his visit to Russia on Thursday at an invitation from Putin to attend the commemorations.
(MENA)
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Al-Ahram Weekly
an hour ago
- Al-Ahram Weekly
Egypt's foreign reserves growth not driven by hot money: Madbouly - Economy
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated on Wednesday that the recent growth in the country's foreign reserves is the result of economic reforms, not an influx of hot money. Speaking at a press conference following a weekly cabinet meeting, Madbouly asserted that genuine economic activities are driving this growth. In 2022, Egypt faced a significant outflow of an estimated $20 billion in hot money, driven by the Russian-Ukrainian war. This outflow exacerbated the country's foreign currency shortage at the time and contributed to economic instability. Madbouly pointed to a 22 percent rise in exports, increased tourism revenue, and higher remittances from Egyptians abroad as key factors. According to the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), the country's net international foreign reserves (NIRs) increased by $174 million in June, reaching $48.7 billion (the highest level in decades), up from $48.526 billion in May. Remittances from Egyptians working abroad surged by 69.6 percent year-on-year from July 2024 to May 2025, reaching approximately $32.8 billion. Madbouly noted that these factors have provided sustainable sources of foreign currency, even amid geopolitical challenges affecting the Suez Canal, Egypt's primary source of foreign currency. He also pointed to the decline in inflation rates as a positive indicator of the government's economic strategy. Furthermore, Madbouly explained that lower inflation rates support government and private sector efforts to reduce profit margins on essential goods, which ultimately benefits consumers. The country's inflation rate for July was 13.1 percent, down from 14.4 percent in June. Moreover, the average inflation rate for the second quarter of 2025 was 15.3 percent, roughly half the 29.4 percent recorded during the same period last year. This reduction, Madbouly said, demonstrates the success of economic policies aimed at controlling prices and enhancing financial stability. Politics unaffected by Israel gas deal Madoulby also addressed the recent controversy surrounding a gas deal with Israel, reiterating that the deal announced by Israeli firm NewMed Energy is an extension of an existing agreement from 2019. The premier affirmed that the agreement, in place six years ago, "did not and will never" influence Egypt's political decisions or positions on the Palestinian cause. Madbouly's remarks are the first official cabinet-level response since the Israeli firm announced what it called a "landmark deal" on Thursday. The firm said that according to the agreement, 130 billion cubic metres of gas, valued at about $35 billion, will be exported to Egypt through 2040. Madbouly explained that as part of the deal, Egypt's two liquefaction plants, Edco and Damietta, will be used to process the gas for resale on international markets at a profit, solidifying Egypt's position as a regional hub for energy. He further noted that the agreement secures gas for Egypt at a price below the global market rate. This strategy, he said, would not only generate additional revenue but also support the growth of gas-based industries within the country. The extension was signed with Blue Ocean Energy, which buys the gas from Israel's Leviathan reservoir for Egypt. Gas from Leviathan began flowing to Egypt shortly after production started in January 2020. Under the new terms, it is expected to continue until 2040 or until contracted volumes are met. Follow us on: Facebook Instagram Whatsapp Short link:
Mid East Info
2 hours ago
- Mid East Info
US Crude (WTI) hovers near key support as traders await US-Russia talks - Middle East Business News and Information
By Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at Oil markets have entered a cautious 'wait-and-see' mode ahead of the scheduled meeting between President Trump and President Putin in Alaska. Prices have stabilised after heavy losses since the start of August, with Brent crude holding firm around the $66 mark, while WTI (U.S. crude) hovers just above key support at $652 per barrel. This relative calm reflects investor hesitation to make big moves until the diplomatic outcome becomes clearer. US Crude (WTI) daily chart: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The potential for a diplomatic breakthrough—such as relaxed sanctions on Russian oil—could increase global supply and weigh on prices. On the flip side, escalating tensions or new sanctions—especially targeting major buyers like India—could tighten the oil market and buoy prices. Recent penalties imposed on Indian imports for continuing Russian oil purchases underline this risk, which could drive oil prices up in the near term. Adding to the pressure on prices, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a notable 1.5 -million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories—suggesting demand may be weakening as the summer season wanes. Although the EIA's official figures are pending, this build is likely contributing to the market's muted reaction. Possible outcomes: Oil prices have always been very sensitive to geopolitical developments and the prospects of supply alterations. As a result, heightened volatility is expected over the next few days. If the U.S. and Russia reach a constructive agreement — such as partial sanctions relief on Russian oil exports, increased trade flexibility, or signals toward de-escalation — the market could price in rising global supply. This would likely be bearish for oil, especially if accompanied by weak demand signals like higher inventory levels. Meanwhile, risk assets would probably resume the upside. If the summit produces no substantial shift, whereby both sides reiterate their positions, with no new sanctions but no easing either, oil will likely remain range-bound, struggling for direction. This would likely see crude prices consolidate, and any price shift would likely reverse in the short term as traders await the next macro catalyst. Lastly, if talks collapse or escalate into new sanctions—like export limits, or additional penalties on countries trading with Russia (like India)— we could see a sharp rally in oil, whilst weighing on risk appetite.
Egypt Independent
5 hours ago
- Egypt Independent
Is Trump forcing a marriage of convenience between India and China? Like most relationships, it's complicated
Their relationship is defined by a bloody border dispute, a vast power imbalance and a fierce contest for influence across Asia. Yet, President Donald Trump's latest trade war may be achieving the unthinkable: pushing India and China into a wary but tactical embrace. Trump's announcement of a new base tariff rate of 25 percent in India – later set to rise to a staggering 50 percent as additional punishment for purchasing Russian oil – in some ways mirrors the long pressure campaign he's waged against China and creates a shared interest between New Delhi and Beijing. While a thaw in India and China's fractious relationship was already underway, analysts say Trump's actions have added to this shift. New Delhi and Beijing now find themselves navigating a volatile and unpredictable Washington that treats strategic partners and geopolitical rivals with the same transactional disdain, be they in Europe or Asia. But in chastising India for not having a more open economy and its energy ties to Russia, the Trump administration is punishing the very nation the US has spent years cultivating as a democratic counterweight to China's power – creating an opening for Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia on October 23, 2024. Xinhua/Sipa USA This tactical realignment is underscored by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reported plans to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit later this month, which would be his first trip to China in seven years. When asked to confirm Indian media reports about Modi's attendance, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Beijing 'welcomes' Modi for the meeting. 'We believe that with the concerted effort of all parties, the Tianjin summit will be a gathering of solidarity, friendship and fruitful results,' said spokesperson Guo Jiakun. Yet, as the niceties play out in public, analysts say this is an alliance of convenience, not conviction. The deep-seated strategic distrust between Asia's two giants, born from their border conflict and struggle for regional dominance, remains firmly in place. For now, they are aligned partly not by a shared vision, but by a shared antagonist in the White House. 'We may see a greater thaw in India-China ties in face of a tough United States,' said Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives, Asia Society Policy Institute. But she warned that New Delhi must not lose sight of Washington and 'risk reversing the growth in relations it has long worked hard on to achieve.' Massive trust deficit India's relationship with the US has undergone a dramatic transformation, from Cold War estrangement to crucial partners in the 21st Century. Since Modi, a right-wing Hindu nationalist, swept to power in 2014, the relationship reached new heights, partly driven by the personal rapport he developed with Trump during his first term, during which the Indian leader cast aside staid diplomatic protocol to campaign for his counterpart's second term during a rally in Houston. New Delhi's growing alignment with Washington became even more critical as its own relationship with Beijing cratered after deadly border clashes in 2020 pushed the two Asian giants further apart than at any time in decades. The US' commitment to India deepened under the Biden administration, which identified New Delhi as a vital counterweight to Beijing's growing influence. President Joe Biden often lavished praise on Modi, while largely setting aside sharp criticism from rights groups over the Modi administration's alleged democratic backsliding at home. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump at NRG Stadium after a rally on September 22, 2019 in Houston, President Joe Biden and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi looking out towards the Washington Monument with India's flag flying behind them in Washington on June 22, 2023. Jonathan Ernst/Reuters But then came Trump's re-election, with a turbocharged 'America First' policy that looked far beyond confronting just China on trade. In a move that threatens to shatter this two-decade consensus, the US president publicly reprimanded New Delhi earlier this month over its Russian oil imports, calling the Indian economy 'dead' and singling out India for Washington's highest global tariff rate. With his new tariffs, Trump is punishing a country that currently imports 36% of its crude oil from Russia, much of it used to support its booming economy and growing 1.4 billion-strong population. But by treating New Delhi a transactional adversary to be punished, Washington risks shattering a cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific strategy, said Milan Vaishnav, director and senior fellow, South Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Trump's latest actions, 'take us right back to that era of estrangement,' he said. 'The US-India relationship is robust enough that it won't be undone overnight, but these moves have created a massive trust deficit on the Indian side.' While many nations have rushed to strike trade deals with Trump to lower tariffs, India under Modi has been less willing to cave. India shot back, calling the tariffs 'unfair' and 'unjustified,' pointing out the hypocrisy of Trump's move and noting that the US and Europe still buy Russian fertilizers and chemicals. A farmer stands next to sacks filled with harvested potatoes in the northern state of Haryana, India, on February 1, 2025. Bhawika Chhabra/Reuters Trump has repeatedly called India a 'tariff king,' but a senior Indian official said the country is 'far from' it, noting that India imposes 'zero to low duties on many key US exports' including coal, pharmaceuticals, aircraft parts and machinery. India imposes some higher tariffs on the US than vice versa, particularly on agricultural imports that attract a simple average tariff of 39% compared to the US's 5%, according to a report from the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. The 'mood (toward the US) is hardening in India, partly because of the way Mr. Trump has gone about and played his cards,' said Harsh V. Pant, vice president of foreign policy at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank. 'The way he does diplomacy through public channels, and the way he seems intent on reducing the space for the Modi government to maneuver.' Modi, who was under pressure by opposition politicians to stand up to his long-term friend, defended his country at an event last week. India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers,' he said. 'I know personally, I will have to pay a heavy price for it, but I am ready for it.' A common cause The unintended consequences of Trump's policies, analysts say, have the potential to push historic rivals New Delhi and Beijing into a strategic embrace. There has been a gradual normalization of ties between India and China after Modi met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia last October. India and China agreed to resume direct commercial flights, Beijing recently agreed to reopen two pilgrimage sites in western Tibet to Indians for the first time in five years, and both started re-issuing tourist visas for each other's citizens. 'For its own economic reasons, namely a slowdown in growth and a slump in foreign direct investment, India has signaled a greater willingness to entertain warmer trade and investment linkages with China,' said Vaishnav, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But this convergence remains limited by the deep-seated mistrust between them, rooted in their deadly border clashes in the Himalayas and China's strategic entrenchment in Pakistan. Indian army vehicles carrying supply and reinforcement are seen near China border in Ladakh, India, on August 29, predicted the future would be one of duality: 'I expect we will see increasing economic cooperation coupled with strategic rivalry,' he said of the relationship between India and China. Washington's willingness to antagonize a key partner like India has also baffled observers. One view is that the Trump administration lacks a clear, overarching strategy, diminishing India's crucial role as a democratic counterweight to China. 'There is no coherent China policy in this administration,' said Vaishnav. 'Which means India's role as a bulwark against China is under-emphasized.' He added that as Trump's mood on Russia soured, 'India's Russian oil imports became an easy target.' A more personal motivation may also be at play. Analysts suggest Trump's hostility could have been triggered by a bruised ego after India downplayed his alleged role in defusing a major crisis with Pakistan. Trump announced he had brokered a ceasefire following a military escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors in May. While Islamabad publicly praised the claim and even nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, Indian officials refused to credit Washington's apparent intervention. 'After that, things went belly up,' Pant said. 'The (trade) deal which at one point seemed very doable, kept on going. And the more frustrated Mr. Trump has become, the more voluble he has become in terms of his public threats to India.' Critics say Trump's policies could be leading to the very outcome some US strategists have long sought to avoid. 'It could be the worst outcome for the United States,' Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton told CNN's Kaitlan Collins. 'The irony here is that while the secondary tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia, it could push India back closer to Russia and, ironically, closer to China, perhaps negotiating together against the US tariff efforts.'
