Fast cars vs. killer dolls: ‘F1,' ‘M3GAN 2.0' gear up for box-office showdown

Yahoo

13 hours ago

Two major films are revving up for big debuts at the box office for the June 27-29 weekend, with Apple Original Films' ambitious Formula One drama F1: The Movie and Universal's campy horror sequel M3GAN 2.0 each eyeing strong openings.
F1 is tracking to debut above $30 million in the U.S., with some forecasts suggesting that the film, starring Brad Pitt as a retired Formula One driver mentoring a rookie (Damson Idris), could start as high as $40 million–$45 million domestically and even race toward $50 million–$60 million if momentum builds. Internationally, where Formula One has a massive fan base, Warner Bros., distributing the film for Apple, is hoping for a $75 million-plus haul across 77 markets. Directed by Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick) and carrying a hefty $200 million production budget, global success is key for F1 to justify Apple's gamble on theatrical releases.
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Meanwhile, M3GAN 2.0 — the sequel to Blumhouse and Universal's viral horror hit — looks poised for a softer but still solid $20 million debut in the crowded summer movie season. The original M3GAN, released in January 2023, shocked industry expectations by opening to $30 million and legging out to $95 million domestically ($180 million worldwide) on a mere $12 million budget, fueled by its viral TikTok dance routines. This time, the PG-13 killer doll movie returns with upgraded thrills and escapist stakes, as the titular AI is rebuilt to stop a humanoid robot aiming for world domination. With a modest $25 million budget, M3GAN 2.0 doesn't need a blockbuster showing to turn a profit.
SEE 'M3GAN 2.0' reviews say the sequel is both too much and not enough
F1 is expected to dominate the domestic charts, propelled by Pitt's star power, Kosinski's storytelling expertise, and Formula One's global popularity (Lewis Hamilton even serves as a producer). While F1 seems geared to attract older male audiences, M3GAN 2.0 is strongest with younger women and remains a social media sensation. Both films will face heavy competition as Universal's Jurassic World: Rebirth roars into cinemas on July 2, along with holdover hits like Disney/Pixar's Elio and Sony's 28 Years Later.
Gold Derby readers predict that F1: The Movie will win the June 27-29 weekend with between $25 million and $50 million domestically. M3GAN 2.0 is the runner-up selection of our oddsmakers.
: Director: Joseph KosinskiDistributor: Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.A Formula One driver comes out of retirement to mentor and team up with a younger driver. The action-packed sports drama, starring Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, and Javier Bardem, has a running time of two hours, 35 minutes, and is rated PG-13. F1: The Movie is certified "fresh" with a 84 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; "generally favorbale" reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 68 percent.
Director: Gerard JohnstoneDistributor: Universal PicturesTwo years after M3GAN's rampage, her creator, Gemma, resorts to resurrecting her infamous creation in order to take down Amelia, the military-grade weapon who was built by a defense contractor who stole M3GAN's underlying tech. The horror sci-fi thriller, starring Allison Williams, Amie Donald, and the voice of Jenna Davis, has a running time of two hours, and is rated PG-13. M3GAN 2.0 is certified "rotten" with a 59 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; "mixed" reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 54 percent.
After strong test audience reactions and early previews, F1 is poised to dominate the box office with a projected opening of over $40 million. M3GAN 2.0 is expected to scare up enough fans for a strong second-place debut, bringing in over $20 million. Meanwhile, Universal's How to Train Your Dragon remains steady in its third week, giving the killer doll some competition as it eyes $20 million as well. The live-action remake has already amassed an impressive $200 million domestically and $376 million worldwide.
Rounding out the top five, Disney/Pixar's Elio and Sony's 28 Years Later are set to continue their box office battle from last week. Though the horror sequel took the lead in their initial matchup, the animated family movie is projected to have more staying power, edging out 28 Years Later with both films aiming for $13 million this weekend.
Here are Gold Derby's predictions box-office rankings for the top five:
1. F1: The Movie2. M3GAN 2.03. How to Train Your Dragon4. Elio5. 28 Years Later
Do you agree or disagree with those rankings? Make your predictions right now — it's fun and easy! Join the box-office discussion in our forums.
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