Despite VW JV and New Cargo Van, Rivian Expects a Challenging 2025

Yahoo

24-02-2025

Rivian produced 49,476 vehicles in 2024 and delivered a total of 51,579 but is forecasting a slight decline in 2025 owing to multiple factors.
The EV maker expects a "challenging demand environment" in 2025, also citing changes to government regulations and policies, which are expected to include the demise of the $7,500 tax credit.
Rivian is getting ready for the start of R2 production in 2026, which will consume some financial resources and factory prep time later this year.
Rivian is one of just a handful of EV startups from the 2010s that have survived into the present day, making the perilous journey from concept to mass production. But surviving into 2025 does not necessarily mean smooth sailing.
The EV maker revealed its fourth quarter results a few days ago, hitting generally positive notes headlined by achieving a gross profit of $170 million. The EV maker also saw record revenues in 2024, and it cited the sale of regulatory credits along with higher average selling prices of its R1 models, among other factors.
The automaker said it produced 49,476 vehicles in 2024 and delivered 51,579.
"In 2024 more than 1 billion packages were delivered by Amazon in the Rivian Electric Delivery Van (EDV) in the US alone," the EV maker noted, adding that it had begun to offer its smaller Rivian Commercial Van (RCV) to non-fleet commercial buyers earlier this month, such as small businesses.
Rivian also entered into a joint venture with VW in 2024, with a deal worth up to $5.8 billion that will bring Rivian tech to Volkswagen's Scout brand, in addition to other goals.
But there are still a few clouds on the horizon when it comes to repeating this feat this year.
"We believe external factors could impact our 2025 expectations, including changes to government policies and regulations, and a challenging demand environment," the automaker said in a letter to shareholders. "While uncertainties persist, we remain focused on executing against our key value drivers and are confident in electrifying the world in the long term."
It's not too hard to guess just what regulatory challenges Rivian expects to see this year, with the fate of the $7,500 tax credit being just one of the factors.
That credit is still expected to depart, perhaps quite abruptly, though the specific timing of its demise remains uncertain. Other automakers are already factoring in the loss of federal incentives sometime in 2025 in their outlook for this year.
In citing a challenging demand environment, Rivian is referring to the slowdown in EV sales that began in late 2023, prompting quite a few automaker to drop prices repeatedly over the course of several weeks and months, as the EV adoption rate in the US showed signs of plateauing.
Rivian has not been immune to this trend, though it has navigated it better than some other, much larger automakers.
But as a result, Rivian cautions that it expects to deliver 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles in 2025, just a bit south of the number delivered in 2024.
"Rivian's guidance represents management's current view on potential adjustments to incentives, regulations, and tariff structures," the automaker noted, hinting at the remaining uncertainty in regards to tariffs that could produce one of the most consequential shake-ups in the EV industry's short history.
The Trump administration has indicated in recent days that tariffs of approximately 25% will be levied on imported automobiles as soon as April 2, 2025, but is expected to clarify the matter sometime prior to or on that precise date.
Rivian does not have a manufacturing footprint outside the US, but it could easily suffer various downstream effects of the imposed tariffs that will affect vehicle component suppliers.
Rivian also expects to see expenses relating to the planned start of R2 production in 2026, which will affect its financial resources later this year, though should pay healthy dividends in 2026 when deliveries start.
"We recently completed our first tooling trials for some of the key stamped body panels," the automaker noted. "The R2 body has been heavily optimized around cost with a focus on minimizing complexity. For example, the R2 utilizes a number of large high-pressure die castings to eliminate parts and connection points."
In preparation for the start of production, the EV maker's plant in Normal, Illinois, is expected to see some preparatory work and some footprint expansion.
Ahead of the R2 launch, Rivian will also grow its service network with plans to open 30 new service locations through the course of the year.
Rivian is certainly not alone in expecting a rocky 2025, but we have a feeling that some of the more consequential events for the EV industry will be ones not anticipated by automakers at the moment.
Will the departure of the $7,500 tax credit affect purchasing decisions for buyers of EVs priced above the $60,000 mark? Let us know what you think in the comments below.