What Japanese politics could look like after Upper House election
As the election campaigns continue, growing uncertainty over the future of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito government is giving rise to a variety of scenarios for what's set to be a turbulent post-election season.
In a chamber with 248 seats, the majority is set at 125, with 75 of the coalition's seats not up for reelection this time. Early surveys have indicated there is a chance the coalition might fall short of the 50 seats it needs to retain its majority.
Such a fiasco would deal a blow to an administration already in a minority position in the Lower House and increase expectations of opposition parties stepping up.
However, no formal parliamentary nomination of the prime minister is contemplated after any Upper House election, which opens up the possibility of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba staying in power even after a setback. Under current rules, a parliamentary vote on the head of the government is required only following a Lower House vote or an en masse resignation of the Cabinet.
Here are some of the possible post-election landscapes awaiting the country:
Ruling coalition retains Upper House majority
The goal set by the LDP-Komeito coalition is seen as low, as Ishiba and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito are often reminded of in election debates. The loss of 16 seats — roughly a fourth of the coalition's seats up for contest this time — would still give it a majority.
The goal works more as insurance for Ishiba to help him save face and cling to the leadership even if the coalition has a poor showing.
Retaining a majority in the Upper House would cement the status quo, allowing the government to use it to block opposition-led initiatives in the Lower House and hasten debates in the chamber. In the final stages of the last parliamentary session, for instance, a bill to abolish a temporary tax on gasoline cleared the Lower House but was never voted on in the Upper House .
A weak performance, however, could trigger internal maneuvers within the LDP to try to oust Ishiba and elect a new party leader, who might not have the certainty of securing a majority vote in the Lower House for the position of prime minister.
On the contrary, a resounding win could strengthen Ishiba's position and fuel momentum for a snap election in the fall for the coalition to attempt to restore its majority in the Lower House.
Ruling coalition loses majority, but Ishiba stays PM
Falling below the majority threshold in the Upper House would severely hurt Ishiba's credibility as leader of the LDP and the nation — especially after last year's debacle in the general election.
Though he would seem like a lame duck, unless he voluntarily steps down, there is no formal procedure to force the prime minister out, even if there is strong pressure from his own party.
Controlling just a minority of seats in both chambers would force the government — which already has to make concessions to the opposition for every bill in the Lower House — to cede legislative powers to an emboldened opposition.
With Ishiba's coalition already running a minority government in the Lower House, losing its grip on the Upper House will further complicate the decision-making process. |
Bloomberg
The option of opening up the coalition to other parties — such as Nippon Ishin no Kai, the Democratic Party for the People or, potentially, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — has its own downsides and would lay bare the fragility of the government. Large coalitions in Japan don't have a fortunate history, as the examples of an eight-party anti-LDP coalition in 1993 and a tripartite pact between the LDP, Komeito and the Liberal Party in the late 1990s have shown.
The idea of a prime minister staying in power even after a defeat in the Upper House is not unprecedented. In 2010, then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan clung to his position even after his Democratic Party of Japan lost control of the Upper House. However, unlike the LDP and Komeito currently, the DPJ-led coalition at the time enjoyed a supermajority in the Lower House.
LDP-Komeito loses majority and Ishiba steps down
Ishiba's potential resignation in the aftermath of an electoral botch would lead to an initial period of political turbulence.
The LDP would be expected to call for a presidential election and elect a new leader, who would then move to gain the support of parliament. Should the opposition fail to form a united front in a parliamentary vote, as happened last November , another minority government could be formed.
The LDP-Komeito coalition could agree to hand the prime minister seat to another party in exchange for an expansion of the government alliance.
A newly elected prime minister from another party could then move to dissolve the Lower House soon after the Upper House election in a bid to consolidate their power base.
Chances remain, however remote, the opposition could also join hands in the parliamentary vote and give birth to an opposition-led government. Given the current fragmentation of parliament, that would also likely be a coalition government.
With just a week left before election day, rhetoric on the campaign trail is expected to heat up — all while the parties mull over their post-election strategies.
'At the moment, we are doing our best to win this election,' Ishiba told a BS Fuji TV news program Thursday. '(After the election) many different political scenarios might be explored in order to rapidly address the many issues the country's facing.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Japan Times
18 minutes ago
- Japan Times
Japan marks lowest level of competition on record for civil service applicants
In fiscal 2025, one out of 2.9 applicants passed employment examinations to enter Japan's career-track for national public servants — marking the lowest level of competition, known as the competition ratio, on record — the National Personnel Authority said Tuesday. A total of 8,815 people passed the exam, up 1,258 from the previous year when one in 3.2 applicants passed. An NPA official attributed the dip in competition to "the number of successful applicants rising in line with an increase in the number of planned hires by each ministry and agency." The number of applicants who passed under a new entry track established in fiscal 2025 to examine judgment and thinking ability came to 1,763, making up around 20% of all successful applicants. Women made up a record high of 47.1% of all successful applicants, up from 43.0% in the previous year.
Japan Times
18 minutes ago
- Japan Times
Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund is hiring amid ballooning assets
Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund, one of the world's largest retirement funds, is about to increase its unusually small staff as the assets it oversees balloon. GPIF, which managed ¥260 trillion ($1.8 trillion) in assets at the end of June, only has 187 employees, versus 676 at Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, which oversaw the equivalent of $1.92 trillion at the end of 2024. Similarly, large retirement funds in Canada and California manage less than a third of what GPIF does, but each has more than 2,000 people on payroll. GPIF's small staff size stems from its early days after its founding in 2006, when the organization outsourced most of its investments and put a majority of its funds in domestic bonds. Reflecting a global shift by pension plans toward riskier investments to bolster returns, Tokyo-based GPIF now earmarks about half of its funds to Japanese and foreign shares, and it also puts money in alternative assets such as private equity. "More high-level specialized staffers need to be secured,' said Kazuto Uchida, who was appointed the fund's president and began his term in April. "As the scope of our operations grows, risk management will also be extremely important' to monitor various areas such as alternative assets and environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles, he said in an interview. The organization expects personnel expenses to reach ¥18.2 billion in total during its five-year business plan period that started in April, an 80% increase from the previous half-decade. Uchida declined to elaborate on how those expenditures will be divided up. He didn't indicate how many new staff may be hired. The planned staff additions indicate the pressure on GPIF to boost returns to help support retirees financially in one of the world's fastest aging populations. It's also considering ways to manage risks as Japan's markets for assets including bonds turn more volatile due to factors such as higher interest rates and U.S. policy swings. Retaining qualified employees may pose challenges for the fund. Salary packages at GPIF tend to be less than those at both domestic and foreign financial firms in Japan, and for equivalent positions at major pension funds abroad. Remuneration levels at GPIF peak at about ¥16 million, or around $108,000 for managing directors, according to the fund's data analyzed by Bloomberg. That compares with median pay levels of about $140,000 for similar top non-executive positions at Japanese financial institutions, and more than $300,000 for those in foreign banking firms operating in the country. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, which managed around 714 billion Canadian dollars ($518 billion) in assets as of March, and California Public Employees' Retirement System, or CalPERS, which oversaw about $565 billion, both surpassed GPIF in terms of pay. Total salaries for CalPERS investment managers start above $200,000 and managing directors at CPP Investments earn almost $300,000 even at the bottom of the range, according to data from job search site Glassdoor. Japan's health, labor and welfare ministry, which oversees GPIF, held an expert panel meeting late last year about the fund. The panel members agreed that in the long term it was crucial to avoid employees moving to other firms, while a ministry official said it's necessary to review if GPIF's compensation is in line with that of the overall industry. GPIF has already taken some steps to hold on to staff and increase expertise, extending in April the retirement age for regular employees to 65 from 60. It's also started hiring new graduates for the first time specifically as investment specialists, jobs that were only available to experienced mid-career applicants in the past. The fund said it's seeking university students studying math, science or economics.
Japan Times
an hour ago
- Japan Times
Indonesia expands military as defense budget soars
Indonesia has created more than 20 regional commands in its biggest armed forces overhaul in decades, coinciding with a sharp increase in defense spending under President Prabowo Subianto and mounting concerns over growing military influence. Prabowo, a former general, inaugurated new commands for the army, navy and air force on Sunday to mark the largest reorganization since the era of the authoritarian ruler Suharto, when the military maintained an extensive territorial network that reached into every province. "The world is full of uncertainty, and even if we dislike war, wars are happening everywhere,' Prabowo said alongside senior commanders and political allies at a ceremony near of the city of Bandung. "Indonesia does not want to take sides,' he added. "But because of that, there is no other choice. Indonesia must have a very strong defense.' The move underscores the growing role of Southeast Asia's largest military under Prabowo, who since taking office last year has successfully backed legal changes to allow more active-duty officers in civilian posts, appointed retired officers to lead state enterprises, and expanded the military's reach into civilian programs — including his signature free meals program. The military says the changes will bolster security along borders and conflict-prone regions. Critics warn it could strain public finances and revive military influence in civilian affairs, a hallmark of Indonesia's authoritarian past. The expansion comes at a time when spending by Indonesia's defense ministry is expected to rise to 247.5 trillion rupiah ($15.2 billion) this year, a nearly 50% increase from its initial allocation, the finance ministry said recently. The higher budget will be used to fund the modernization of defense equipment and infrastructure, it added. The new commands effectively expand the military's reach across the world's fourth-most populous nation. The army gained six units in resource-rich and strategically sensitive regions from the Malacca Strait to the eastern border with Papua New Guinea, bringing its total to 21. The navy added 14, while the air force added three.
