Can Georgia Meloni connect Trump's America to its European allies?
The late Berlusconi was known for his unpredictable behavior, rhetorical arrogance and willingness to take on the Italian judiciary and other left-wing public institutions in Italy. He was the closest personality and politician to Donald Trump that we have seen in modern Europe, and Meloni had a front-row seat to the never-ending political chaos of the Berlusconi era in Italian politics.
Meloni incrementally moved away from the traditional conservatism of Forza Italia, elevating her populist Brothers of Italy Party to 30 percent support after only two and a half years in government. She has managed to dramatically increase that support with her 'common-sense' no-nonsense governing style wed to an anti-immigration populism that is assertively committed to defending traditional marriage, the Catholic Church and Italy's fundamental right to remain 'Italian.'
Meloni was attracted to right-wing political activism at an early age, having joined the Youth Front, the youth branch of Movimento Sociale Italiano, when she was only 15 years old. The movement was founded by former fascists after World War II in response to an increasingly violent left-wing counterculture youth movement sweeping across Italy at the time.
Meloni seemed determined, even at a young age, to establish legitimacy for right-wing populist politics that had always eluded other European right-wing populist movements.
With this background, Prime Minister Meloni has increasingly acted as a bridge between President Trump and America's European allies. Having learned under the mentorship of Berlusconi, Meloni understands how to deal with strong and unpredictable leaders.
While other European leaders such as Emmanuel Macron of France and newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are strong supporters of the EU, free trade and international public institutions, Meloni is skeptical of all three. She and often pushes back against European economic and multicultural integration.
She is determined to protect Italian industry, culture and, most importantly, Italy's shores from an influx of illegal migrants from North Africa and the Middle East. These positions closely align Meloni with Trump's populist policy agenda. There's a reason Trump has called Meloni one of his favorite European leaders.
Trump also likes Meloni's pragmatism toward Russia, Ukraine and Gaza. Although she has supported sanctions against Russia and has publicly criticized Vladimir Putin, she has also called for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. She has been skeptical of Europe's plan to use European ground troops as a peacekeeping force after a cease-fire has been reached in that conflict.
Meloni's support for Ukraine, which has surprised many of her governing coalition partners, is based on her strong belief in 'national sovereignty,' a recurring theme for Meloni when she defends Italian interests from intrusive EU bureaucrats and regulators.
Trump has also never forgotten how Meloni maintained a close relationship with him and the Republican Party during the campaign and the Biden presidency, even as other European leaders refused to meet with candidate Trump. Meloni has always intuitively understood that loyalty and flattery are the best way to win Trump over and keep him engaged on issues important to Italy and Europe. She learned this lesson from her relationship with Berlusconi.
Although Meloni is close to Trump, her relationship with European leaders and Brussels are often contentious. For example, Meloni voted against the reelection of Ursula von der Leyen, a popular and powerful politician in Europe, when she ran for a second term as president of the European Commission.
If Meloni decides to be Trump's champion in Europe, she could lose influence with the European Commission to France's Macron and Germany's Merz, both of whom want a stronger and more integrated Europe, along with a more independent economic and security relationship with the U.S.
Merz's anger with Trump was fueled by Vice President JD Vance's address at the Munich Security Conference, which criticized Germany and the rest of Europe on defense spending, immigration, freedom of speech and the refusal to work with right-wing populist parties such as the Alternative for Germany or AfD Party.
However, Vance's speech was popular in Italy with Meloni's party and her partner, the Northern Italian Lega party of Matteo Salvini. Meloni refused to criticize the speech and embraced many of Vance's talking points, especially on immigration and free speech. She thus further aligned herself and Italy's right wing-populist movement with Trump and the U.S.
Meloni is also using her personal relationship with Trump ally Elon Musk to cultivate a closer business and economic relationship with the U.S., which she believes will strengthen her leadership position in Europe. Italy's growing economic ties to Musk will work in her favor with Trump, but it could also hurt Meloni's standing with European leaders if the unpredictable Musk continues to support right-wing opposition parties in Europe such as the AfD. His business empire has also become the focus of EU regulators and lawyers in Brussels.
Meloni will have to skillfully navigate contentious policy obstacles if she wants to be the European leader who can build a bridge between the Trump administration and European governments. On immigration, foreign policy, tariffs, free speech and the protection of traditional institutions, Meloni and Trump are mostly on the same page. Her innate pragmatism and personality have also allowed her to be accepted, if not fully embraced, by center-left European leaders who often exclude right-wing politicians from their club.
Trump's demand that NATO countries spend 2 percent of their GDP on defense spending, something Meloni has said Italy can't do, could fracture the cozy transatlantic relationship between Meloni and Trump. However, for now, Meloni is the only elected European leader capable of bridging the widening security, economic and cultural gap between Trump's America and its longtime friends and allies in Europe.
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