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Motilal Oswal explains why stock market investing is about trust, not fear
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Samie Modak Khushboo Tiwari Mumbai
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Motilal Oswal, cofounder and managing director of the eponymous financial services firm, arrives promptly at the decided time of 1:30 pm at Sette Mara, a West Asian restaurant on the ninth floor of The St Regis Mumbai.
The luxury hotel, just a mile away from the sleek Motilal Oswal Tower in Lower Parel, offers a stunning view of Mumbai's skyline, with Mukesh Ambani's 27-storey residence, Antilia, standing prominently in the distance.
His team has cautioned us that Oswal, who was born to a Jain family, is particular about food. However, the man who greets us with a warm smile is
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Stocks to buy for the long term: Nifty's journey from last Independence Day to this Independence Day has been a roller-coaster ride, driven by global chaos, subdued earnings, stretched valuations, and massive foreign capital outflows. After hitting a record high of 26,277.35 on September 27 last year, the index erased its gains in the subsequent months. On a monthly scale, the benchmark index remained in the red from October 2024 to February 2025. It recovered between March and June but slipped back into negative territory in July. So far in August, the index is down about half a per cent. Over the past year, the index has been up just 0.40 per cent. The short-term outlook for the Indian stock market is hazy due to tariff-related concerns and feeble signs of earnings growth in the coming few quarters. Experts expect the benchmark index to deliver moderate returns in the calendar year 2025. While the market outlook does not appear to be encouraging, experts see stock-specific opportunities in most sectors. Sneha Poddar, VP -Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, has picked 10 stocks that can potentially give double-digit returns in the next one year. Take a look: Bharti Airtel's premiumisation strategy continues to attract high-value customers, driving sustainable ARPU (average revenue per user) growth and strengthening revenue quality. Strong free cash flow generation potential (nearly ₹ 1 lakh crore over FY26–27E) from moderated capex and healthy operations enables flexibility for debt reduction, dividends, and reinvestment. Home broadband momentum, robust B2B (business-to-business) growth, and double-digit Africa expansion diversify revenue streams. Bharti reported a healthy Q1FY26, with a 5 per cent beat in Airtel Africa. India's wireless revenue and EBITDA rose nearly 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher ARPU and improved margins, offsetting softer subscriber additions. "We model a 14 per cent and 17 per cent CAGR in Bharti's consolidated revenue and EBITDA, respectively, over FY25–28E, led by the anticipated about 15 per cent tariff hike in India wireless from December 2025, accelerating net additions in home broadband, and sustained double-digit growth in Africa," said Poddar. LT Foods has an 80 per cent share in global basmati exports and 90 per cent of global supply. The company enjoys unmatched market leadership, ensuring sustained demand and pricing power. The domestic shift from unorganised to organised players supports long-term branded volume growth, while international expansion through a new UK plant and partnerships with major retailers boosts overseas presence. Strong North America growth, rising global adoption of basmati, and a focus on high-margin branded products underpin profitability. "The organic foods segment offers scalable expansion potential in Europe and the US. We expect adjusted PAT CAGR of 28 per cent over FY25–27," said Poddar. Suzlon's long-term growth story remains intact, supported by strong sector tailwinds, a robust integrated manufacturing base, and rising EPC contribution. Local content mandates from July 2025 and the gradual phase-out of ISTS waivers enhance its competitive edge. "Proactive land acquisition, 547MW in pre-commissioning, and targeted working capital cycle improvement support growth. A net cash position of ₹ 1,600 crore underpins healthy RoEs and free cash flows, positioning Suzlon for sustained medium-term expansion," said Poddar. BEL's strong ₹ 71,700 crore order book ensures multi-year revenue visibility, backed by a diverse pipeline across the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Leadership in high-value projects like the ₹ 30000 crore QRSAM (quick reaction surface-to-air missile), naval system expansions, and strategic missile programs such as Project Kusha and Brahmos upgrades positions BEL for long-term growth. Margin profile has strengthened to 28.6 per cent in FY25, supported by indigenisation and disciplined cost control. Consistent R&D investments sustain competitive advantage, while export growth and counter-drone system capabilities enhance market reach. "A healthy ₹ 9,400 crore cash surplus provides flexibility for expansion and execution. Export prospects and indigenisation-led orders further enhance its long-term revenue visibility. We estimate a CAGR of 18 per cent in revenue, 17 per cent in EBITDA, and 17 per cent in PAT over FY25–28E," said Poddar. UltraTech Cement remains India's largest cement producer with a pan-India presence. It consistently expands capacity (nearly 10 MTPA pipeline in FY26) to strengthen its leadership and capture demand. The cement consumption outlook is supported by robust government infra capex, urban housing rebound, and rural demand recovery, enabling sustained double-digit volume growth guidance for FY26. EBITDA/t improved 33 per cent year over year in Q1, aided by cost optimisation, logistics efficiency, and a higher green power share (nearly 40 per cent). "Integration of Kesoram & ICEM will further improve productivity. With net debt/EBITDA targeted to fall from 1.2 times (Jun'25) to 0.1 times by FY28. We estimate a CAGR of 14 per cent in consolidated revenue, 25 per cent in EBITDA, and 30 per cent in PAT over FY25-FY28," said Poddar. Nippon Life India AMC (NAM) ranks among the top 10 AMCs, posting the fastest QAAUM growth at 27 per cent YoY to ₹ 6.1 lakh crore (Jun'25). Market share rose 23bps QoQ to 8.5 per cent—its highest since Jun'19—driven by steady net inflows, strong SIP momentum, and a healthy 46.9 per cent equity mix. NAM is scaling its alternatives and offshore businesses, with ₹ 8100 crore in AIF (alternate investment fund) commitments and ₹ 16,600 crore in offshore AUM (assets under management). These segments serve as incremental growth levers beyond the core mutual fund franchise, gaining increasing traction from institutional and global investors. "NAM is strategically scaling its specialized investment fund (SIF) platform as a high-potential, standalone business focused on alpha-generating strategies, backed by a dedicated team and strong management support. Strong traction in mutual funds along with diversification in new segments will drive 14 per cent, 16 per cent, and 15 per cent CAGR in revenue, EBITDA, and PAT, respectively, over FY25-27E," said Poddar. Radico Khaitan is well-positioned for long-term growth through aggressive expansion in the premium and luxury spirits segment. It leverages strong brand equity with leading products like 8PM, Magic Moments, and Rampur Single Malt. With rising consumer premiumization, it commands an 8 per cent market share in the ₹ 20 crore Prestige & Above (P&A) segment. It reported a robust Q1FY26 standalone net sales increase of 32 per cent year-on-year to ₹ 1,510 crore, which was above estimates. Total volume rose 38 per cent, driven by a 41 per cent growth in premium and above volumes to 38 lakh cases and a 52 per cent growth in regular volumes to 54 lakh cases. "We estimate revenue, EBITDA, and APAT CAGR of 16 per cent, 22 per cent, and 30 per cent, respectively, over FY25-FY28, supported by margin expansion due to premiumization and operating leverage," said Poddar. M&M is well-positioned for long-term growth, backed by a robust product pipeline through 2030, with key ICE SUVs, BEVs, & LCVs set to launch in the calendar year 2026. Geographic strength in high-demand tractor markets and favourable rural demand recovery further support volumes. M&M posted a strong 32 per cent year-on-year PAT (profit after tax) growth in Q1FY26, aided by steady auto margins (8.9 per cent) and robust tractor margins (19.8 per cent). Market share gains in Q1FY26 were notable, with auto share up 570bps YoY to 27.3 per cent, LCVs (light commercial vehicles) up 340bps to 54.2 per cent, and tractors up 50bps to 45.2 per cent. RoE (return on equity) stood at 20.6 per cent in Q1FY26, above the 18 per cent target, with management reiterating 15–20 per cent EPS growth and nearly 18 per cent RoE guidance. "We estimate M&M to post a CAGR of nearly 15 per cent in revenue, 14 per cent in EBITDA, and 18 per cent in PAT over FY25-27," said Poddar. Vishal Mega Mart (VMM) is one of India's largest offline-first value retailers, operating 696 stores across 458 cities, with nearly 72 per cent in tier 2+ India. VMM aims to add 100+ stores per year across 1,250+ tier 2+ towns and untapped tier 1 cities, supported by robust store-level economics. VMM's mix—apparel (44 per cent), FMCG and general merchandise (nearly 28 per cent each)—with 73 per cent revenue from private brands, drives footfall, wallet share, and TAM (total addressable market) expansion. Poddar underscored that with less than two-year payback, more than 50 per cent RoCE (return on capital employed), and double-digit SSSG (same store sales growth), VMM enjoys strong store-level profitability and self-funded expansion through disciplined, asset-light operations. "We expect revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGR of 19 per cent, 20 per cent, and 24 per cent, respectively, over FY25–28, driven by steady store additions and margin gains. Forecast cumulative OCF (operating cash flow) and FCF (free cash flow) of ₹ 3,200 crore and ₹ 2,300 crore, respectively, ensure ample internal funding, while private label scale and operating leverage further enhance profitability," said Poddar. SBI is poised for sustained growth, driven by a diversified loan book and strong positioning across retail, SME, and corporate segments. The bank's 'Project Saral' initiative will boost efficiency and customer service through AI-enabled digital transformation, supporting its sub-50 per cent cost-to-income ratio target. For FY26, management has guided for 12–13 per cent credit growth, backed by a robust ₹ 7.2 lakh crore sanctioned pipeline, with opportunities in green energy, infrastructure, and government-led capex. "We estimate FY25–FY28 loan and PAT CAGR of nearly 12 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, supported by stable NIMs (net interest margins) above 3 per cent, easing deposit costs, and contributions from market-leading subsidiaries in life insurance, cards, and asset management," said Poddar. Read all market-related news here Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
